Draft Prep Help

[marcheese]

Hey guys, great site so far! I've been going through rankings/articles/tips for the last couple of weeks in preparation for my draft. Then I came across these forums and I figure what better way to talk through my draft then with fantasy lovers themselves. This is my 2nd year taking part in fantasy football, so I'm still learning. The biggest thing I learned from the rankings is to not always draft the player who will put up the most points, but to draft on where the biggest drop off in value could come. I am in a re-draft league with 15 other friends. So to start, I'll give the break down of my league.

 

16 team H2H

QB, QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R, K, DEF, DL, DL, LB, BN, BN, BN, BN

25 passing yards per point

all TD = 6 pt

10 rushing/receiving yards per point

-2 points per interception thrown

-2 points per fumble

20 return yards per point

 

That's the gist of the scoring break down.

So the thing that stand out most is 2 starting QB. We basically draft QB per team, that way everyone is guaranteed 2 starting QB. By simply looking at these settings, how would you guys approach the draft?

 

I'm drafting 16th, so I'll get a crack at every turn. Should I try to trade this draft position, or stick with it? My initial reaction to go QB/QB at picks 16/17, then WR/WR at picks 48/49, then fill out my roster from there. I'm planning on taking 4 WR, and 6 rookie/back up RB and hope at least 2 of them work out really well so I can use them as my starters. Any other opinions are greatly appreciated! Thanks!

[ts]

I don't know that putting all your RB eggs in the "rookie/backup" basket will pan out for you, but given 16 teams and the 2 starting QB rule, I guess you have to make compromises somewhere ... I'd suggest taking best player available at both 16 & 17 regardless of position. With your draft slot, it may be tough for you to find a true "difference maker" at any position ... I wish I had better advice to offer, but this sounds like a league & draft where you will need to really pay close attention & play things by ear as the draft unfolds, trying as best you can to stay ahead of player-position runs or at least not get caught at the very tail end of a run.

 

Good luck.

[Big Country]

Don't go in with a preset plan of taking certain positions at certain spots.

 

Do some research on value of the positions so you can see where gems may be found.

 

Look at the tendencies of the owners so you can see where runs are likely to happen.

 

Look at the makeup of the teams that did well last year to see what they did right

[marcheese]

Don't go in with a preset plan of taking certain positions at certain spots.

 

Do some research on value of the positions so you can see where gems may be found.

 

That makes 100% perfect sense. But, what's the best way to do research on the value of positions? It doesn't really seem easy to just find a gem... Thanks.

[Big Country]

That makes 100% perfect sense. But, what's the best way to do research on the value of positions? It doesn't really seem easy to just find a gem... Thanks.

 

One simple method that may shed some light is the last starter method.

 

Basically take the last starter at each position (so, for a typical 12 team league, that would be the projected #12 QB, #24 RB, etc.), and subtract their projected points from the projected points of all other players at the position. This gives you a baseline to compare players of different positions on a common scoring plane.

 

Look at a thread in the main forum by The Wolf - he goes in to running a VBD analysis and comparing that to ADP to see where discreprencies may lie.

 

Common thinking would state that in your 16 team league, Team QBs would be a a premium as you use them all (bye weeks must be a bear as there are no backups), but you also require 2 RBs (and allow up to 3 with the flex) so that shoots the value of RBs up. I hope you do PPR as well to get more viable RBs and WRs in the mix given how deep this league must run.

[marcheese]

One simple method that may shed some light is the last starter method.

 

Basically take the last starter at each position (so, for a typical 12 team league, that would be the projected #12 QB, #24 RB, etc.), and subtract their projected points from the projected points of all other players at the position. This gives you a baseline to compare players of different positions on a common scoring plane.

 

Sorry man, not sure I follow you on that one! If you could explain a bit that would be great, thanks!

[Big Country]

 

Try this thread for starters There are others wih more detail, such as my use of a 3-year average if you don;t do projections, but this should hopefully get the point across.

[marcheese]

Try this thread for starters There are others wih more detail, such as my use of a 3-year average if you don;t do projections, but this should hopefully get the point across.

 

I could kiss you.

[Donutrun Jellies]

I could kiss you.

Don't.

 

ETA - though, when someone comes through with great advice / assistance ...

Edited July 16, 2009 by Donutrun Jellies

[marcheese]

Big Country, I just took your method and did my own calculations and I came up with...

 

(Based on 32 QB, 40 RB, 56 WR, and 16 TE)

 

1 QB  Tom Brady 212.62

2 QB  Drew Brees 203.76

3 QB  Peyton Manning 190.86

4 QB  Philip Rivers 166.84

5 QB  Donovan McNabb 162.7

6 QB  Aaron Rodgers 162.52

7 QB  Kurt Warner 161.68

8 QB  Tony Romo 153.86

9 RB  Maurice Jones-Drew 149.9

10 RB  Adrian Peterson 147.6

11 QB  Matt Schaub 138.02

12 RB  Matt Forte 136.7

13 RB  LaDainian Tomlinson 135.9

14 WR  Larry Fitzgerald 131.3

15 WR  Andre Johnson 128.5

16 QB  David Garrard 127.8

17 WR  Randy Moss 126

18 QB  Matt Ryan 125.26

19 RB  Michael Turner 124.5

20 RB  Clinton Portis 123.8

21 QB  Jay Cutler 122.66

22 QB  Ben Roethlisberger 117.62

23 QB  Eli Manning 114.26

24 RB  Frank Gore 114.2

25 RB  Steven Jackson 112.8

26 RB  DeAngelo Williams 112.2

27 QB  Joe Flacco 108.16

28 QB  Matt Cassel 107.96

29 QB  Matt Hasselbeck 107.56

30 WR  Calvin Johnson 106.3

31 WR  Steve Smith 104.8

32 RB  Marion Barber 102.7

33 QB  Carson Palmer 101.76

34 RB  Chris Johnson 101.4

35 QB  Chad Pennington 100.74

36 WR  Reggie Wayne 100.5

37 WR  Marques Colston 97.7

38 RB  Steve Slaton 96.2

39 QB  Jake Delhomme 95.36

40 RB  Brian Westbrook 94.8

41 RB  Brandon Jacobs 94.8

42 WR  Greg Jennings 94.3

43 QB  Jason Campbell 93.42

44 RB  Ryan Grant 92.8

45 WR  Roddy White 91.7

46 QB  Brett Favre 86.24

47 WR  Donnie Avery 85.6

48 WR  T.J. Houshmandzadeh 84.3

49 QB  Kyle Orton 83.06

50 RB  Pierre Thomas 80.4

51 WR  Antonio Bryant 80

52 WR  Dwayne Bowe 79.7

53 WR  Roy Williams 79.5

54 RB  Ronnie Brown 78.4

55 QB  Shaun Hill 77.08

56 WR  DeSean Jackson 76.2

57 WR  Jerricho Cotchery 75.3

58 RB  Joseph Addai 74.4

59 RB  Kevin Smith 74.1

60 WR  Anquan Boldin 73.7

61 WR  Wes Welker 72.9

62 QB  Trent Edwards 71.76

63 WR  Vincent Jackson 70.5

64 WR  Brandon Marshall 70.1

65 RB  Larry Johnson 69.9

66 RB  Knowshon Moreno 69.8

67 WR  Santonio Holmes 67.4

68 WR  Chad Ochocinco 66.4

69 WR  Domenik Hixon 65.7

70 QB  Brady Quinn 63.32

71 QB  JaMarcus Russell 61.98

72 WR  Terrell Owens 61.4

73 WR  Santana Moss 61.2

74 WR  Hines Ward 61

75 WR  Braylon Edwards 60.1

76 RB  Reggie Bush 58

77 RB  Darren McFadden 57.8

78 QB  Kerry Collins 57.46

79 WR  Derrick Mason 57

80 TE  Tony Gonzalez 56.8

81 RB  Marshawn Lynch 55.4

82 TE  Antonio Gates 53.8

83 QB  Mark Sanchez 53.06

84 RB  Derrick Ward 50.8

85 QB  Marc Bulger 50.76

86 RB  Thomas Jones 49.3

87 RB  Jamal Lewis 48.9

88 WR  Donald Driver 48

89 WR  Lance Moore 48

90 QB  Matthew Stafford 46.1

91 WR  Chris Chambers 45.4

92 WR  Anthony Gonzalez 45

93 TE  Jason Witten 43.9

94 WR  Bernard Berrian 41.1

95 WR  Torry Holt 40

96 WR  Kevin Walter 39.1

97 TE  Chris Cooley 38.3

98 TE  Greg Olsen 37.8

99 WR  Lee Evans 36

100 RB  Julius Jones 33.5

101 WR  Devin Hester 33.5

102 WR  Ted Ginn Jr. 33

103 QB  Sage Rosenfels 32.46

104 WR  Muhsin Muhammad 32

105 TE  Dallas Clark 31.5

106 RB  Willie Parker 31.4

107 RB  Earnest Graham 30.7

108 WR  Steve Breaston 30

109 RB  Cedric Benson 29.3

110 WR  Eddie Royal 28

111 TE  Dustin Keller 27.4

112 WR  Mark Clayton 26.1

113 WR  Laveranues Coles 26

114 WR  Justin Gage 24.4

115 TE  John Carlson 21.8

116 WR  Josh Morgan 21

117 RB  Ray Rice 20.5

118 RB  Jonathan Stewart 18.2

119 RB  LenDale White 17.8

120 TE  Owen Daniels 17.5

121 WR  Steve Smith 17.1

122 TE  Zach Miller 14.1

123 TE  Kellen Winslow 12.9

124 WR  Michael Crabtree 12.7

125 WR  Patrick Crayton 12.6

126 RB  Chris Wells 12.2

127 TE  Brent Celek 11.5

128 RB  Fred Jackson 11.2

129 WR  Antwaan Randle El 9

130 TE  Bo Scaife 8.6

131 WR  Chaz Schilens 8

132 WR Earl Bennett 7.6

133 TE  Heath Miller 6.2

134 TE  Visanthe Shiancoe 5.8

135 WR Mike Walker 4.4

136 WR Bryant Johnson 4

137 WR Kevin Curtis 4

138 RB  Ricky Williams 3.4

139 WR Nate Washington 1.7

140 RB  Fred Taylor 1.5

141 RB  Ahmad Bradshaw 0.8

142 QB  Byron Leftwich 0

143 RB  Chester Taylor 0

144 WR Deion Branch 0

145 TE  Jeremy Shockey 0

 

Clearly QB dominate and we don't see a TE until pick 80. What do you think? I personally don't see myself taking Kerry Collins before someone like Derrick Ward.

[Big Country]

I'm not surprised to see that.

 

With all QBs starting, all of a sudden they have hugh value. When you are only dealing with 12 or so starting QBs, you can see why their value becomes deflated.

[gandalas]

In a 16-team league that I just started, we also start 2 QB every week. QBs are in VERY high demand - all 29 non-rookie starting QBs were gone by round 7 or so, and some teams do not even have their 2, and are stuck looking for value in backups that may see action, or Culpepper/Clemens/the TB Qbs/Minn. QBs not named Farve.

 

Needless to say, grab em, and grab em EARLY. I got lucky and snatched up Romo and Carson Palmer, but am one injury and both my bye weeks from not having a starter there. There will always be a breakout RB or 2, and WRs aplenty, but there is only 1 QB that starts per team (usually), so if all 32 are taken, it raises their value TREMENDOUSLY.

[Big Country]

In a 16-team league that I just started, we also start 2 QB every week. QBs are in VERY high demand - all 29 non-rookie starting QBs were gone by round 7 or so, and some teams do not even have their 2, and are stuck looking for value in backups that may see action, or Culpepper/Clemens/the TB Qbs/Minn. QBs not named Farve.

 

Needless to say, grab em, and grab em EARLY. I got lucky and snatched up Romo and Carson Palmer, but am one injury and both my bye weeks from not having a starter there. There will always be a breakout RB or 2, and WRs aplenty, but there is only 1 QB that starts per team (usually), so if all 32 are taken, it raises their value TREMENDOUSLY.

 

The good news is based on the intial post, it appears they do TEAM QB, so that lessens the risk of gettin a guy that may be splitting time or losing his job, but obviously does not address the bye week situation.

[marcheese]

Sweet.. I'll most likely use this as a guide to importance of position, not necessarily where I'll draft certain players. You mentioned other specific interesting threads, but I've been searching and can't find anything to do with strategy really. Do you have the links, or names of the threads so I can take another look? Thanks.

[marcheese]

Also, I can potentially trade my 16th pick for the 11th pick. What do you guys think would be better? I think 11 would be better because I won't be rushed with 2 picks in a row, and I might make a dumb pick because of time constraints without thinking.

[Big Country]

Would you be trading the entire 16th spot for the 11th spot throughout the draft? ie basically exchange draft positions?

[marcheese]

Yeah, throughout. Well, it may not be for the 11th pick exactly, it could be anywhere from 10-15. I might offer the trade up to players in my league to see if anyone bites.

[Big Country]

Can't say I'd really have any preference either way. I've had some good luck with the swing picks but I also would not mind an earlier first rounder in such a large league.

[marcheese]

Can't say I'd really have any preference either way. I've had some good luck with the swing picks but I also would not mind an earlier first rounder in such a large league.

 

Just traded it for the 13th pick. I prefer it, so I'm not rushed every time I need to make a pick. I think Brees will be the only QB taken before me, so now that this is a keeper league, who do I go for? Rodgers? Brady? And on the turn should I target Ryan? Cutler?

[The Wolf]

Just traded it for the 13th pick. I prefer it, so I'm not rushed every time I need to make a pick. I think Brees will be the only QB taken before me, so now that this is a keeper league, who do I go for? Rodgers? Brady? And on the turn should I target Ryan? Cutler?

 

Walking away with 2 QB's and not having any picks until 48/49 is so incredibly risky. There will be no balance to you team whatsoever. If you have to take a QB with one pick, fine, but make that other a top WR (don't reach for a RB if the value is not there).