3rd Year Receivers

[mchops]

Anyone have a list of 3rd year receivers? there are always breakout candidates at the receiver position because of the third year breakthrough but I'm looking for a breakdown and who is ready and who needs another year of experience or two.

[tazinib1]

Here is a list of 3rd year WR's that have the highest potential for a "breakout" year. I've bolded my favorites. Some or all of these guys need some sort of injury or an improvement at QB/Offensive Scheme to breakout.

 

Mike Walker

Jason Hill

Steve Smith

Robert Meachem

Sidney Rice

Dwayne Jarrett

James Jones

Johnnie Lee Higgins

Roy Hall

Laurent Robinson

Chris Davis

Craig Davis

Yamon Figurs

Isaiah Stanback

Derek Stanley

Steve Breaston

 

 

 

Of course then you have the 3 year wideouts that will be drafted heavily in all formats:

 

Megatron

Bowe

A.Gonzolez

Ted Ginn Jr.

 

 

I'm sure I've missed a few, but hope that helps.

[mchops]

great list and quick. thanks dude.

[Company of Heroes]

On the upper list, I think only the Steves (Breaston and Smith) would likely be drafted in a 10 team league.

 

I guess I file this under players to watch in training camp and on the waiver wire...

[CaptainHook]

Roy Hall is nothing more than a special teams player. He had an undistinguished career at Ohio State. He's hurt constantly. The Colts said when they drafted him, it was for special teams, and he can't even do that. He has one catch for 9 yards in his career. I would not be surprised if he didn't make the team this year.

[Bronco Billy]

Of the list above:

 

Mike Walker - I don't like his chances at all. JAX picks up Holt in the offseason and then drafts three - three! - WRs? That sends a strong message that they don't think much of the guys they have there, including Walker. He's also missed 1 1/2 seasons out of 2 possible with two different knee injuries.

 

Jason Hill - Opportunity just doesn't seem to be there. Crabtree is going to play, Bruce ought to start, and Morgan has looked much better than Hill. I'm hopeful because I own him in a dynasty league but I don't see how he is going to move past being WR4 in SF right now. Morgan has been moved to flanker to get lots of reps opposite Crabtree - that says a lot to me. He just doesn't seem to be getting much of a transfer of skills to the NFL level.

 

Steve Smith - Leading receiver for the Giants last year, the coaching staff is very high on him, he's shown improvement over last year in OTAs, and he looks like a lock to start. This smells like the ideal situation for a breakout.

 

Robert Meachem - Seems to be the next name in a long list of TEN WRs who were studly in college and can't get it done at the NFL level. He may get a chance if Colston's knee repair goes sour, but he'd still need to get past Henderson to line up opposite Moore. Don't like his chances or his play much.

 

Sidney Rice - The drafting and rage over Harvin have really overshadowed him, but Harvin is still a rookie despite his rave reviews. He'll get every opportunity to start is he can keep himself on the field, and MIN will finally have a QB who can get the ball all over the field, whether it is Favre or Rosefels. Watch him carefully in preseason, he's under a whole lot of radars.

 

Dwayne Jarrett - What a major disappointment so far. Despite being handed every chance to take a starting job and make it his for a decade, he has fizzled miserably. CAR was even forced to bring back graybeard Muhammad because Jarrett was such a disappoint. It sounds like CAR is doing everything this year to prop him up, but he just doesn't have NFL speed and his ability to separate is zero - which pretty much defines his chances.

 

James Jones - If he stays healthy, he could finally supplant Driver. He's shown some ability to not only play but excel at the NFL level if he can stay healthy. He's in a great system and he has Jennings drawing double coverage on the other side. I personally think Jones is the reason GB isn't extending Driver. Not too concerned about Nelson getting in his way - he looks like he's targeted for the slot.

 

Johnnie Lee Higgins - Watch preseason carefully and see if OAK has any plans on using him other than running fly patterns. He has great deep speed and ability to separate, but that's not a plus when OAK QBs don't have enough time for his pattern to develop. There is an opening at WR, and Heyward-Bey has some earmarks of bust on him. He could be OAK's WR1 by default, and they figure to be behind in a lot of games. Sneaky late round pick in a draft who could give some nice bye week production at least.

 

Roy Hall - Hall is going to have a difficult time holding onto WR5 in IND. The starting spots and WR3 are pretty much set in stone, and Collie is getting some fine reviews. I don't see how Hall gets on the field for any reliable time at all.

 

Laurent Robinson - This is my candidate to strike it big this coming year.If he can beat out Burton to start opposite Avery - and that's no stretch for him - he can be playing on an O that will be throwing a lot in the second half of games. He's the right build and makeup for a possession WR, and he'll have a vet QB looking for a reliable chains-mover. He's not sexy, but he could end up being the most productive name on this list.

 

Chris Davis - Looking like a roster causulty. That says a lot on a team dying for a WR - any WR - to step up. Watch UDFA Dudley Guise push him right off the roster.

 

Craig Davis - Bust 1st round pick for the Chargers. He's getting no transfer of college skills at all. It's disturbing that fellow 3rd yr 5th round WR Naanee is outperforming him, and Naanee is very limited.

 

Yamon Figurs - Uber thin Figurs doesn't look like he'll ever be anything more than a special teamer. BAL is scouring the WW looking for WRs, and Figurs never gets any mention of stepping in to any meaningful role at WR.

 

Isaiah Stanback - Very sneaky last round pick in a draft. Stanback is immensely athletic, but has been learning to play a new position (he was a college QB) and he's been hurt a lot. All the talk about WRs in DAL is about Crayton, Hurd, and Austin, but all three of those guys had a chance to step into the WR2 role while Owens was drawing coverage and none had the ability. Keep an eye on him and keep your mouth shut - he has the ability and the field knowledge to leap past all of those guys if he can keep off the IR - although even if he does he'd be at best option 3 in the passing game on a DAL team that figures to run a lot this year.

 

Derek Stanley - Limited by his size to be destined to be a ST player his entire career. He has the heart, but in the bigs that just ain't enough.

 

Steve Breaston - Very intriguing guy who is probably keeping Boldin from holding out for an extended period. He proved he belongs last year and can excel at the NFL level, and he'll get sufficient field time given his play last year to be a legit late WR3 or WR4 in FF leagues. His problem? Fitz and Boldin are in front of him. But Boldin has a long injury history, and now his attitude is hurting him - so all is not lost for Breaston. He's a guy worth rostering at the end of your FF WR bench - the upside is gargantuan.

 

--------------------

 

Two names not on the list who ought to be:

 

David Clowney and Chansi Stuckey of the Jets. One of these guys is going to shake out as the starter opposite Cotchery and is well worth rostering on a FF team. Right now Stuckey is leading the battle, but this will be decided probably very late in the preseason. The caveat is that whomever wins the job is probably the fourth option behind Cotchery, Keller, and Washington for a team very likely to be starting a rookie QB. Still, that has the potential to be quality depth in a FF WR corps.

[tazinib1]

--------------------

 

Two names not on the list who ought to be:

 

David Clowney and Chansi Stuckey of the Jets. One of these guys is going to shake out as the starter opposite Cotchery and is well worth rostering on a FF team. Right now Stuckey is leading the battle, but this will be decided probably very late in the preseason. The caveat is that whomever wins the job is probably the fourth option behind Cotchery, Keller, and Washington for a team very likely to be starting a rookie QB. Still, that has the potential to be quality depth in a FF WR corps.

 

Great additions. Pretty good writeup on the players listed as well.

[mchops]

Awesome post bronco Billy!

[godtomsatan]

The 3rd season breakout thing is kind of a myth, isn't it?

[Bronco Billy]

The 3rd season breakout thing is kind of a myth, isn't it?

 

I always try to earmark year 2 for WRs who are not injured to detrmine how much progress they'll make. It seems like the good ones show the vast improvment between years 1 & 2. Injuries & loaded starters add the caveat to that, though.

[Bronco Billy]

remind me to never be in a league with you

 

Those who can't do, teach...

 

[Randall]

great list and quick. thanks dude.

 

 

I don't buy into that 3rd year receiver myth.

[Randall]

James Jones - If he stays healthy, he could finally supplant Driver. He's shown some ability to not only play but excel at the NFL level if he can stay healthy. He's in a great system and he has Jennings drawing double coverage on the other side. I personally think Jones is the reason GB isn't extending Driver. Not too concerned about Nelson getting in his way - he looks like he's targeted for the slot.

 

 

That was the talk on Jennings too. 1st year he hurt his ankle and year 2 he missed the first 2 games then went on a tear.

 

James Jones-Last year he was one of the most improved during the off season. He's cheap in leagues and drafts. I like him this year.

Edited July 22, 2009 by Randall

[BeeR]

Dwayne Jarrett - What a major disappointment so far. Despite being handed every chance to take a starting job and make it his for a decade,

 

[Brentastic]

I don't buy into that 3rd year receiver myth.

It's not really a myth but it's not that absolute either. Do your own research (I've already done mine), but most stud WRs have their breakout season between years 2-4. The mean of that range is year 3. Sometimes it's year 2, sometimes it's year 4. A good indicator of a future stud WR is to see solid improvement each year. If a rookie gets around 500 yards then improves to the 700-900 range in his sophmore year, that's a pretty solid indicator that said WR will be a stud. Now he may have the same yardage in year 3 (close to but under 1,000), but this pattern usually indicates a stud in the making.

[Brentastic]

Of this list, I would only draft Breaston and Smith (NYG). Another name not on here who is a 4th year guy is Domenik Hixon - either him or Smith will emerge as a go-to-guy for Eli. My guess is that both will put up draftable numbers but one of them will have over 1,000 yards and possibly 10+ TDs - I guess because of his size, that favors Hixon.

 

This post should really show all the 2-4 year players, 3rd season only is too limiting and not really accurate.

[keggerz]

as in he would have the WR job for a decade

[Bronco Billy]

 

10 yr career for a starting WR in the NFL? No likey?

[Randall]

It's not really a myth but it's not that absolute either. Do your own research (I've already done mine), but most stud WRs have their breakout season between years 2-4. The mean of that range is year 3. Sometimes it's year 2, sometimes it's year 4. A good indicator of a future stud WR is to see solid improvement each year. If a rookie gets around 500 yards then improves to the 700-900 range in his sophmore year, that's a pretty solid indicator that said WR will be a stud. Now he may have the same yardage in year 3 (close to but under 1,000), but this pattern usually indicates a stud in the making.

 

 

Here is a write up on it. While it does take many WR's 2 years to adjust to the NFL game there are some(Colston/Boldin) that perform right away.

 

Breakout charts are near the bottom.

[Brentastic]

Here is a write up on it. While it does take many WR's 2 years to adjust to the NFL game there are some(Colston/Boldin) that perform right away.

 

Breakout charts are near the bottom.

Not really sure what you're getting at. Obviously, there are always exceptions. But the chart I saw showed exactly what I said, which is that most WRs breakout between seasons 2-4. The chart showed that 75% of WRs breakout in these years. Are you arguing my previous post or agreeing? Because the chart at the bottom supported my post.

[KordellStewartSucks4Life]

Of the list above:

 

Mike Walker - I don't like his chances at all. JAX picks up Holt in the offseason and then drafts three - three! - WRs? That sends a strong message that they don't think much of the guys they have there, including Walker. He's also missed 1 1/2 seasons out of 2 possible with two different knee injuries.

 

Jason Hill - Opportunity just doesn't seem to be there. Crabtree is going to play, Bruce ought to start, and Morgan has looked much better than Hill. I'm hopeful because I own him in a dynasty league but I don't see how he is going to move past being WR4 in SF right now. Morgan has been moved to flanker to get lots of reps opposite Crabtree - that says a lot to me. He just doesn't seem to be getting much of a transfer of skills to the NFL level.

 

Steve Smith - Leading receiver for the Giants last year, the coaching staff is very high on him, he's shown improvement over last year in OTAs, and he looks like a lock to start. This smells like the ideal situation for a breakout.

 

Robert Meachem - Seems to be the next name in a long list of TEN WRs who were studly in college and can't get it done at the NFL level. He may get a chance if Colston's knee repair goes sour, but he'd still need to get past Henderson to line up opposite Moore. Don't like his chances or his play much.

 

Sidney Rice - The drafting and rage over Harvin have really overshadowed him, but Harvin is still a rookie despite his rave reviews. He'll get every opportunity to start is he can keep himself on the field, and MIN will finally have a QB who can get the ball all over the field, whether it is Favre or Rosefels. Watch him carefully in preseason, he's under a whole lot of radars.

 

Dwayne Jarrett - What a major disappointment so far. Despite being handed every chance to take a starting job and make it his for a decade, he has fizzled miserably. CAR was even forced to bring back graybeard Muhammad because Jarrett was such a disappoint. It sounds like CAR is doing everything this year to prop him up, but he just doesn't have NFL speed and his ability to separate is zero - which pretty much defines his chances.

 

James Jones - If he stays healthy, he could finally supplant Driver. He's shown some ability to not only play but excel at the NFL level if he can stay healthy. He's in a great system and he has Jennings drawing double coverage on the other side. I personally think Jones is the reason GB isn't extending Driver. Not too concerned about Nelson getting in his way - he looks like he's targeted for the slot.

 

Johnnie Lee Higgins - Watch preseason carefully and see if OAK has any plans on using him other than running fly patterns. He has great deep speed and ability to separate, but that's not a plus when OAK QBs don't have enough time for his pattern to develop. There is an opening at WR, and Heyward-Bey has some earmarks of bust on him. He could be OAK's WR1 by default, and they figure to be behind in a lot of games. Sneaky late round pick in a draft who could give some nice bye week production at least.

 

Roy Hall - Hall is going to have a difficult time holding onto WR5 in IND. The starting spots and WR3 are pretty much set in stone, and Collie is getting some fine reviews. I don't see how Hall gets on the field for any reliable time at all.

 

Laurent Robinson - This is my candidate to strike it big this coming year.If he can beat out Burton to start opposite Avery - and that's no stretch for him - he can be playing on an O that will be throwing a lot in the second half of games. He's the right build and makeup for a possession WR, and he'll have a vet QB looking for a reliable chains-mover. He's not sexy, but he could end up being the most productive name on this list.

 

Chris Davis - Looking like a roster causulty. That says a lot on a team dying for a WR - any WR - to step up. Watch UDFA Dudley Guise push him right off the roster.

 

Craig Davis - Bust 1st round pick for the Chargers. He's getting no transfer of college skills at all. It's disturbing that fellow 3rd yr 5th round WR Naanee is outperforming him, and Naanee is very limited.

 

Yamon Figurs - Uber thin Figurs doesn't look like he'll ever be anything more than a special teamer. BAL is scouring the WW looking for WRs, and Figurs never gets any mention of stepping in to any meaningful role at WR.

 

Isaiah Stanback - Very sneaky last round pick in a draft. Stanback is immensely athletic, but has been learning to play a new position (he was a college QB) and he's been hurt a lot. All the talk about WRs in DAL is about Crayton, Hurd, and Austin, but all three of those guys had a chance to step into the WR2 role while Owens was drawing coverage and none had the ability. Keep an eye on him and keep your mouth shut - he has the ability and the field knowledge to leap past all of those guys if he can keep off the IR - although even if he does he'd be at best option 3 in the passing game on a DAL team that figures to run a lot this year.

 

Derek Stanley - Limited by his size to be destined to be a ST player his entire career. He has the heart, but in the bigs that just ain't enough.

 

Steve Breaston - Very intriguing guy who is probably keeping Boldin from holding out for an extended period. He proved he belongs last year and can excel at the NFL level, and he'll get sufficient field time given his play last year to be a legit late WR3 or WR4 in FF leagues. His problem? Fitz and Boldin are in front of him. But Boldin has a long injury history, and now his attitude is hurting him - so all is not lost for Breaston. He's a guy worth rostering at the end of your FF WR bench - the upside is gargantuan.

 

--------------------

 

Two names not on the list who ought to be:

 

David Clowney and Chansi Stuckey of the Jets. One of these guys is going to shake out as the starter opposite Cotchery and is well worth rostering on a FF team. Right now Stuckey is leading the battle, but this will be decided probably very late in the preseason. The caveat is that whomever wins the job is probably the fourth option behind Cotchery, Keller, and Washington for a team very likely to be starting a rookie QB. Still, that has the potential to be quality depth in a FF WR corps.

 

Great stuff here. Thank you for taking the time to write this up.

[matt770]

I would keep expectations in check for Steve Smith. He's a great slot receiver and has a knack for getting open in clutch situations, but has just one regular season TD and has not been a big yards-after-catch guy up to this point. Suddenly he's the most veteran WR on the team and will have the top corners on him, and he will be expected to run the big post routes and such. Not saying he can't do it, it's just a matter of him proving it. IMO, the sooner they install Nicks on one side with Hixon/Moss/Manningham on the other, with Smith in the slot, the better. He just seems to have a knack for that spot, and I'm a believer in playing to a guy's strength.

 

Interesting note, 2008 stats:

Smith: 574 yds / 1 TD

Boss: 384 / 6

 

I definitely see the trend for Boss continuing this season, especially in the TD department.

[Bronco Billy]

Interesting note, 2008 stats:

Smith: 574 yds / 1 TD

Boss: 384 / 6

 

I definitely see the trend for Boss continuing this season, especially in the TD department.

 

Now that's interesting with the drafting of Beckum. I'd expect Boss to do nothing but go down in production - especially after hearing so much about how the Giants like Beckum after having seen him in OTAs.

[Randall]

Not really sure what you're getting at. Obviously, there are always exceptions. But the chart I saw showed exactly what I said, which is that most WRs breakout between seasons 2-4. The chart showed that 75% of WRs breakout in these years. Are you arguing my previous post or agreeing? Because the chart at the bottom supported my post.

 

 

What I was getting at is many WR's get up to NFL speed in year 2 rather than just the third year.

[matt770]

Now that's interesting with the drafting of Beckum. I'd expect Boss to do nothing but go down in production - especially after hearing so much about how the Giants like Beckum after having seen him in OTAs.

 

Beckum is an interesting case, they like him a lot and are talking about moving him around, including the slot and fullback. They are supposedly drawing up new plays to utilize his talents. Sounds awesome and I can't wait to see what he can do, but he is still a rookie. If anything, his arrival probably pushes Boss to work on his blocking and routes. I don't see Beckum hurting Boss's numbers. Eli is going to lean heavily on his "veterans", which as of right now, amazingly, are Smith, Hixon and Boss. Eli likes Boss in the red zone, and you don't limit a guy like that. Just one homer's opinion.