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Who to Keep?!?!


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Ok I'm in a keeper league and am torn between two players. In this league RBs and WRs score about the same. I have Reggie Wayne in the 3rd round or Deangelo Williams in the second. Please help me out.

 

Re: bolded section: Doesn't much matter, it's the spread in scoring that matters and the number of required starters.

 

Unlike Opie, I see little reason to not protect DWill of the 2 even with the different cost associated.

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You'd rather have DWill at 2.01 over Wayne at 3.12?

 

Don't get me wrong, I like DWill...

 

Based on some statistical study I've looked at (thanks to my WCOFF team mates), yes. But, looking at the follow up question of Warner vs. Brown, I may say no as part of a larger equation and trying to build the best overall team.

 

And, all of that is predicated on gaining a better understanding of what players are likely to be available in the early part of the draft, lineup requirements, and scoring system.

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please elaborate.

 

Well, with the appropriate nod to my WCOFF teammates (and if they ask me to remove this post, I will as well as any quoting it) for finding this (and these notes are based on WCOFF/PPR scoring):

 

Comments on Wayne (note in WCOFF< we have the 7th pick, thus the 2.6 as well-

 

Reggie Wayne: His current ADP is at 2.5, so there is a good chance we don't get a crack. Number 12 overall WR last year, #14 in average ppg. Like clockwork. Probably the safest bet for a WR at this position. However, I think his upside is probably also lower than any of the 5 WR's I'll be posting about. In stealing from another website: "Wayne has had only one multi-touchdown game in the last four seasons....Wayne has eclipsed 86 receptions only once in his career,,,,,,He ranks 10th among receivers in TDs per game over the past three years, so he needs to either boost his TD total or get a lot more yardage to return to the Top Five." IMO, I'm not sure what major change this off-season would to make him improve dramatically over last year.

 

Comment on Williams

 

DeAngelo Williams: I'm stealing this from another website that describes D.Williams' 2008 season in historical context. Only 11 RBs have rushed for 1,500 yards and scored 20+ TDs in a season. Only 8 RBs have averaged 5.5 yards per rush on 200+ carries in a season. Only 3 RBs have averaged 5.5 YPR on 200+ carries and scored 15+ TDs. The other RBs that have averaged 5.5+ yards per rush on 200+ carries in a season: James Brooks, Jim Brown (2x), Eric Dickerson, Adrian Peterson, Clinton Portis, Barry Sanders (2x), O.J. Simpson (2x).

 

Every single name mentioned was STUD material in their day. Much like Williams was last season. I know he's got Jonathan Stewart in his shadow, but DeShaun Foster had Williams in his shadow, much the same Foster waited in Stephen Davis' shadow. This pattern seems to be how John Fox runs his show, and Williams is just now entering the prime of his career. 20 TDs is a lot to repeat, but even if he drops to 12, his ypc suggests he's still a safe bet to get 1600-1700 total yards, which easily makes him top 10 back. He may not be the #1 overall guy, but I see Williams as darn near a guarantee to be an RB1 again in 2009.

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Good info. Yes, I agree with all of it, but...

 

still, 3.12 for Wayne versus 2.01 for DW? I haven't done the Value crunching, but instinctively, I think a very safe, quality WR as the 36th pick versus a Stud RB at the 13th leans to the WR.

 

We don't have enough info to make such a statement..

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