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My Projections are Posted!


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Important notes:

 

1. I do NOT project injuries. Therefore, you'll see way more QBs with 4000 yds, RBs with 1000 yds, etc. That's because I assume they all play 16 games, with the exception of Lynch. However, my team and league totals are in range. I'm OK with this because I'm essentially projecting PPG and not total points. PPG is what matters, because I can plug in another QB if Brees gets hurt and I don't take a 0 from him.

 

2. I hope that I have some differences here. If my projections are the same as the consensus, I'm screwed.

 

3. I appreciate any and all feedback/criticism/flaming. I'll stand by my rankings, but it's never bad to hear the other side of things.

 

4. Yes, those really are my projections for the Dallas Cowboys. I'm probably further off on that team than anyone else. I won't be getting Romo or Marion Barber on any of my teams this year.

 

 

ENJOY!

 

http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/index.html

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Wow!

 

Would you mind if I included these in the Wtd Avg Projections spreadsheet? Is this the final release, or will there be updates? If updates, any chance on putting the "update date" on the webpage?

 

Awesome!

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Projections are always easy targets. I disagree with a few that you've posted. That said, you put yourself out there like you have for quite a while now, your opinion is just as good as anyone's else's at this point in the season and better than the vast majority, and you do one hell of a job running the phenoms leagues.

 

Kudos to you for yet another outstanding effort, my friend. Wish you'd hang around here a bit more...

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Same as DMD's ranking for LT.

 

Pierre Thomas in top 5 is ballsy.....and exactly where I have him....he will be an absolute steal if taken at his ADP. Flip-flop Slaton and Forte, and your top-6 RBs are the same as mine.

I know and in the LT thread I actually say I would take him at #2 so it is a bit of sarcasm on my part for those that are letting LT fall to the late 1st or more

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Same as DMD's ranking for LT.

 

Pierre Thomas in top 5 is ballsy.....and exactly where I have him....he will be an absolute steal if taken at his ADP. Flip-flop Slaton and Forte, and your top-6 RBs are the same as mine.

JMHO, but I think the only way PT makes top 5 is if Bush gets injured early in the season and is out or severely hindered for the remainder. If you're expecting PT to get the bulk of the carries then keep in mind how often the Saints like to throw, including the short RB pass plays which they consider running plays. PT & Bush will both get an ample amount of runs, but Bush will get the bulk of the receptions. Also keep in mind that Payton has spent a lot of effort bringing in short yardage backs & so far has been very high on Mike Bell in camp as well as dark horse Lynell Hamilton. We all know as fantasy players what the short yardage back means to a primary RB. I still like PT a lot as possibly a RB2 option, but I'd temper those projections of top 5 quite a bit. This is also all ignoring the fact that PT has a history of injuries as well.

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JMHO, but I think the only way PT makes top 5 is if Bush gets injured early in the season and is out or severely hindered for the remainder. If you're expecting PT to get the bulk of the carries then keep in mind how often the Saints like to throw, including the short RB pass plays which they consider running plays.

 

I hear you loud and clear, and agree with many of your points. But with

 

1. Bush's penchant for getting dinged

 

2. the fact that they likely will use both at the same time, put Bush in motion to clear out the linebacker...thus opening the field for the speedy Thomas

 

3. run lots of draws out of shotgun formation

 

4. use Thomas in traditional sets

 

I also see the Saints running a little more than last year. I think they know that they need the offense to eat a little more clock than in year's past in order to keep their defense off the field. With that, I see the team's total carries increasing 10-15% over 2008. With that, I see a ton of upside from Thomas' ADP of what is likely the 12-15th RB on the board.

 

I project him with the following: 1300-1400 rushing yards, 350-400 receiving yards, 12-14 TDs

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Wow!

 

Would you mind if I included these in the Wtd Avg Projections spreadsheet? Is this the final release, or will there be updates? If updates, any chance on putting the "update date" on the webpage?

 

Awesome!

 

Go right ahead. I will be updating periodically - there's a date of update on each team's page. (upper left)

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LT @ #3 :wacko:

 

Bounce back year. He just needs to be healthy and I believe he is. Sproles is not a threat to take carries from him. LT is a rare RB that can maintain a high level of play for many years, IMO. Plus, there aren't as many other RBs that are elite and truly featured on their team.

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Projections are always easy targets. I disagree with a few that you've posted. That said, you put yourself out there like you have for quite a while now, your opinion is just as good as anyone's else's at this point in the season and better than the vast majority, and you do one hell of a job running the phenoms leagues.

 

Kudos to you for yet another outstanding effort, my friend. Wish you'd hang around here a bit more...

 

Thanks. I'll see what I can do about posting here a bit more. Time is finite, unfortunately.

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JMHO, but I think the only way PT makes top 5 is if Bush gets injured early in the season and is out or severely hindered for the remainder. If you're expecting PT to get the bulk of the carries then keep in mind how often the Saints like to throw, including the short RB pass plays which they consider running plays. PT & Bush will both get an ample amount of runs, but Bush will get the bulk of the receptions. Also keep in mind that Payton has spent a lot of effort bringing in short yardage backs & so far has been very high on Mike Bell in camp as well as dark horse Lynell Hamilton. We all know as fantasy players what the short yardage back means to a primary RB. I still like PT a lot as possibly a RB2 option, but I'd temper those projections of top 5 quite a bit. This is also all ignoring the fact that PT has a history of injuries as well.

 

Good info. I think Thomas is a far better runner than Bush and this will limit Bush's carries, even if healthy. Bush's yards/carry is pathetically low for someone with such explosiveness. Part of the reason Thomas grades out so high is the TDs. He was a TD machine down the stretch last year. If one of these short yardage guys comes in and takes his TDs, that will really kill his value.

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Bounce back year. He just needs to be healthy and I believe he is. Sproles is not a threat to take carries from him. LT is a rare RB that can maintain a high level of play for many years, IMO. Plus, there aren't as many other RBs that are elite and truly featured on their team.

the sarcasm on my part was for the people that are letting LT slip to the late first round....there is a thread around here where I said I think LT should be at #2

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the sarcasm on my part was for the people that are letting LT slip to the late first round....there is a thread around here where I said I think LT should be at #2

 

Yeah - it's the one where I explain why you're nuts... :D

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:wacko:

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Good info. I think Thomas is a far better runner than Bush and this will limit Bush's carries, even if healthy. Bush's yards/carry is pathetically low for someone with such explosiveness. Part of the reason Thomas grades out so high is the TDs. He was a TD machine down the stretch last year. If one of these short yardage guys comes in and takes his TDs, that will really kill his value.

Honestly I doubt Bush's carries will be affected that much. It should remain along the lines of when he & Deuce shared carries and they were both healthy. The run game really worked well for them then & I think that is what they are shooting for now. I think both he & Bush will get a fair balance with the receptions heavily tipping Bush's favor and the carries slightly tipping in PT's favor. The TD part is what concerns me most. Payton said repeatedly during the off season that the one thing they needed to improve on the most is short yardage conversion. Time management is part of that, but he specifically spoke of 3rd & shorts & goal line offense and by the looks of it so far he plans to accomplish that with different packages including guys like Bell and Hamilton. It's something to keep a close eye on & I think you may get a good clue with who he uses in short yardage during preseason. Throwing out injury, what I think is the biggest factor affecting PT is the play of the defense. If the D goes back to the way they played the past two years then the offense will go back to their score quick & often mentality which doesn't bode as well for Thomas if Bush is healthy.

 

I also see the Saints running a little more than last year. I think they know that they need the offense to eat a little more clock than in year's past in order to keep their defense off the field. With that, I see the team's total carries increasing 10-15% over 2008. With that, I see a ton of upside from Thomas' ADP of what is likely the 12-15th RB on the board.

 

I project him with the following: 1300-1400 rushing yards, 350-400 receiving yards, 12-14 TDs

Tempered optimism for me is about 1050 rushing, 200 receiving & 8-10 TDs... taking into account all the factors I mentioned. If Bush gets hurt then I'd agree with your stats, but I try to never figure injury into projections and being a Saints homer, have to be the eternal optimist. :wacko:
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