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Using Homefield Advantage


kroyrunner89
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I was looking through some guys home/away splits last night and the difference blew me away. For example, Brees had 11 td to 10 ints in 8 games on the road last year, but at home had 23 tds to 5 ints. Andre Johnson averaged about 17 or 18 ppg at home, on the road he averaged more like 8 or 9. The difference is unbelievable. Would you ever consider sitting a stud who has a good matchup just because he's on the road?

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I was looking through some guys home/away splits last night and the difference blew me away. For example, Brees had 11 td to 10 ints in 8 games on the road last year, but at home had 23 tds to 5 ints. Andre Johnson averaged about 17 or 18 ppg at home, on the road he averaged more like 8 or 9. The difference is unbelievable. Would you ever consider sitting a stud who has a good matchup just because he's on the road?

 

Nicely done! I never really thought to looking that deeply into performance, even though I am a hugh fan of playing matchups and will sit a stud against a very tough D in favor of a bench player who catches an easy D. A lot of research showed the odds to favor that action significantly.

 

I may have to take a little deeper look at this angle - and if it does turn out true for players - particularly the upper echelon, I'd absolutely consider it.

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Nicely done! I never really thought to looking that deeply into performance, even though I am a hugh fan of playing matchups and will sit a stud against a very tough D in favor of a bench player who catches an easy D. A lot of research showed the odds to favor that action significantly.

 

I may have to take a little deeper look at this angle - and if it does turn out true for players - particularly the upper echelon, I'd absolutely consider it.

thanks for the kind words. i definitely think there may be something here, but i still don't quite believe past performance dictates future results enough to sit brees on the road against a weaker team. however, if i had him on the road against a medium to solid defense i'd definitely look to my bench for help, especially if my backup has a history that seems to suggest he may have a good week

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thanks for the kind words. i definitely think there may be something here, but i still don't quite believe past performance dictates future results enough to sit brees on the road against a weaker team. however, if i had him on the road against a medium to solid defense i'd definitely look to my bench for help, especially if my backup has a history that seems to suggest he may have a good week

 

I think the analysis you've done can certainly help when setting lineups using your Tier 3 and possibly Tier 2 players, as long as the historical data (further than one year) leads towards making such a move.

 

However, I would never, EVER, bench a stud. Ever. Using your Brees example, you probably drafted him in the 2nd round or paid a premium for him at an auction. Why would you ever bench that?

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I think the analysis you've done can certainly help when setting lineups using your Tier 3 and possibly Tier 2 players, as long as the historical data (further than one year) leads towards making such a move.

 

However, I would never, EVER, bench a stud. Ever. Using your Brees example, you probably drafted him in the 2nd round or paid a premium for him at an auction. Why would you ever bench that?

well granted you drafted him really early for a reason, but last year he was only that top tier player at home. He averaged about 16 ppg on the road, which granted is still good, but you drafted him for the 30 ppg he averaged at home. i think if you want to succeed you have to bench brees on the road against a medium to strong defense, no matter how painful that may be, and roll with the guy who is in the better situation that week. after all, it isn't about starting your best players, it's about starting who will score the most points.

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Does this mean if I draft Sanchez and Eli I'll win my league? :wacko:

 

The stats you dug up are interesting but I can't help but think that the first time I bench a Brees or an AJ b/c he's on the road he'll blow up. That's just the way it is..

but even if he does blow up once if you're right the other 4 or 5 times you do it isn't it worth it? i mean obviously i'm not suggesting to start low tier guys over your studs, i'm just saying if you have a guy who's tier two or three that is in a more favorable situation to go with him. andre johnson is a great receiver, but if you've got someone like colston at home i'd go with him over johnson on the road any day

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but even if he does blow up once if you're right the other 4 or 5 times you do it isn't it worth it? i mean obviously i'm not suggesting to start low tier guys over your studs, i'm just saying if you have a guy who's tier two or three that is in a more favorable situation to go with him. andre johnson is a great receiver, but if you've got someone like colston at home i'd go with him over johnson on the road any day

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Obviously, some guys play different at home than on the road, just like some guys play differently on turf vs. grass. I don't see how this really is a factor over whether to start one guy or another any more than whether it's going to be rainy, windy, or snowing.

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