SOFA IDP League Draft

[keggerz]

Looks like you're going to have all sorts of opportunity and value dropping into your lap, keg. Pretty weak start by some of the participants. Good luck.

I agree that it looks like some good value was dropping but my plan was to nab two of my top 5 WRs...I REALLY wanted to see AJ make it to me but when Fitz went 1.3 I figured that wouldnt happen...As I am sure many here know I am a HUGH Smitty fan and had no problem starting off with him and Wayne...I think Wayne has a very nice rebound year this year with a healthy Manning from the start of the season

 

Turner falling to the second round - wow - I found that quite surprising. I can't believe his ranking has dropped that much.

I will probably be wrong but I dont think that Turner ends up as a top 12 RB this year...between his workload last year and a much more difficult schedule I just wasnt going to draft him....see BBs answer below to answer your question

 

It's the run on the top WRs in the first doing it. I happen to agree with your sentiments, but it seems like this is the strategy being generally implemented this year.

[keggerz]

Well thru 4 rounds I have rostered:

WR:Reggie Wayne

WR:Steve Smith (Car)

WR:TJ Houshmandzadheh

RB:Reggie Bush

 

When I decided I was going WR/WR to start the draft Bush was the one RB that I was really hoping would make it to me at the 3/4 turn. I know many will think I am crazy to rely on Bush considering his injury history but the way I see not a single back on the board presents as much upside as Bush does. Prior to getting injured last year thru 6 weeks Bush was averaging over 24ppg. The Saints are not phasing Reggie out of their plans. Is he a bust when it comes to running between the tackles? Probably but this isnt a Run Between the Tackles Fantasy League...this is a PPR IDP FF league...with an emphasis on the PPR and IDP it makes sense to grab Bush here.....the total number of starters help to offset the importance of one player or position (especially if I can build a very solid team). As for TJ, I think he will do extremely well in Seattle. Hass will lean on him and he should be a PPR saviour. So it is especially nice to have him as my #3 WR....I will say that I was willing to go RB/RB at the 3/4 turn but only if Ronnie Brown or Ryan Grant & Bush were all there.

 

Also the 4th round sees the first D player off the board (Patrick Willis).

[Bronco Billy]

Wow. 3 RBs going in the middle of the third round who all are capable of and in a situation where they could all finish in the top 10 in RB performance. That's just amazing to me. There is still some incredibly outstanding value sitting out there right now. Vicent Jackson at 4.03 ahead of some of the WRs still on the board? That is quite a reach. And Aaron Rodgers as the first QB off the board at 3.01? I thought FBGs were supposed to be the mavens of VBD...

Edited August 14, 2009 by Bronco Billy

[keggerz]

Why is it so hard to set up scoring for half sacks when the NFL measures them that way?

I verified this and it is setup to account for half sacks.

[Bronco Billy]

I verified this and it is setup to account for half sacks.

 

10-4

 

Thanks, GB

[Dallas Sooners]

I think it would have been hard to pass on Turner at 12. Jennings could very well be the #4 WR after Moss, Fitz, and AJ. I think Id have taken Turner 1.12 and Jennings at 2.1

 

This gives you more flexability to only have to grab one RB later as a starter, instead of have to rely on Bush as your #1, and who knows who now as your #2.

 

I am seeing the end turn, isnt as valuable as in years past. The players going in the early part of round 3 are much better than the end round 3. While players at the beginning of round 4 arent much different than the players at the 4/5 turn.

 

I am watching this to get an idea where the so called experts from other sites are drafting defense, and how they see it. I am currently in the middle of the BCS league IDP redraft, http://football17.myfantasyleague.com/2009...=24697&O=17

 

Im not sure this draft offers much for most redaft IDP leagues offensively, as the strategy by so many here, is so different than most owners in other leagues. But it is definately interesting to see. While Im very interested to see how early some of my sleepers are going.

 

 

Bring home the hardware Keg.

Edited August 14, 2009 by Dallas Sooners

[keggerz]

thru 4 full rounds there are 5 teams that have ONE RB each....that is a far cry from the RB hoarding of years past.

[Zooty]

Stumbled across this

 

apparently there are some very heated discussions going on at a couple of the other "experts" websites.

 

Personally I like what Keg has going on even though I'm not much of a R. Bush fan. A couple other teams are looking a little weak and reaching IMO

[keggerz]

Stumbled across this

 

apparently there are some very heated discussions going on at a couple of the other "experts" websites.

 

Personally I like what Keg has going on even though I'm not much of a R. Bush fan. A couple other teams are looking a little weak and reaching IMO

thanks and I hadn't seen that link so I will give it a read.

[Bronco Billy]

Here's some more foddder for you, keg:

 

link to FBGs SOFA discussion

 

Norton is drafting for FBGs - that explains a lot. Get a load of this:

 

Poor, Mark. Guy probably had nothing to do with this...

 

"Wow the guy drafting for footballguys is clearly a jabrone and should be fired ASAP. If I had to guess it would be Mark Wimer, I could spot that guy 2 picks per round and still field a better team than him."

 

It's not me, but I will point out that I won my Fantasy Sports Trade Association leagues 2 years in a row (2006 and 2007, didn't play last year) - I beat Howard Kamen from USA Today and Matthew Berry from ESPN during 2007.

 

So folks can throw all the mud they want, I've got the trophies on my mantle. LOL. Unlike all the guys who took Steven Jackson in the top 5 last year. LMAO.

 

Yes Mark, I too have a fairly big mantle that is running out of room. But then what do we know?

 

 

We'll just have to get a bigger mantle, I guess...LOL. I'm looking forwards to polishing up my R.E.M. '09 trophy starting in Late December... ;-) :football:

 

I'll be right here, I've been here since 1999 on staff. And for the record, I HAVE skipped on Steven Jackson in all my drafts and will continue to do so. :thumbup: So will you if you want trophies on your mantle come December. LOL.

 

 

 

Wimer and Norton having a "whose dick is bigger" contest. Two guys in love with themselves who shouldn't be...

Edited August 15, 2009 by Bronco Billy

[keggerz]

Here's some more foddder for you, keg:

 

link to FBGs SOFA discussion

 

Norton is drafting for FBGs - that explains a lot. Get a load of this:

 

 

Wimer and Norton having a "whose dick is bigger" contest. Two guys in love with themselves who shouldn't be...

I have a pretty big mantle too..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

....unfortunately, it is mostly filled with disappointments

[keggerz]

Thru 6 rounds:

WR:Wayne

WR:Smitty

WR:Housh

RB:RBush

LB:Ruud

LB:DJ Williams

 

I can live with that start....Prior to the start of this draft my game plan was to start WR WR followed by WR/RB leading up to LB/LB I knew there would be a chance that my LB LB selection could take the 1st 2 off the board but Craig from FantasyFootball.com snagged Willis in the fourth and beason 3 picks in front of my 5/6 swing....I figured if I missed out on LB 1 it would be Willis....but Willis wasnt #1 on my LB board that designation goes to Ruud...but Willis was 2nd...followed by Beason and then DJ...but to be honest I am a bit worried about Beason due to the loss of the Panthers DT (Kemoeatu)...I know that many of you are going to be shaking your head at my passing on RB but I just didnt see the value in the position...the fact that we start 15 on a weekly basis really helps to water down the importance of the RB position...there will be plenty of RBs available later that will give serviceable production when paired with what I hope to be a pretty studly lineup at this point....but there is still a bunch of draft left.

 

and yes in case anyone missed it I said that RUUD is the #1 LB on my board, followed by Willis, Beason, Williams and I will hold off on listing my #5 LB since he is still on the board.

Edited August 15, 2009 by keggerz

[Zooty]

and yes in case anyone missed it I said that RUUD is the #1 LB on my board, followed by Willis, Beason, Williams and I will hold off on listing my #5 LB since he is still on the board.

 

At least you don't have Aaron Rodgers and Tony Gonzales as your #1 QB and TE.

[keggerz]

At least you don't have Aaron Rodgers and Tony Gonzales as your #1 QB and TE.

but how will you feel when I end up with Orton and Leonard Pope as my #1 QB & TE

[darin3]

I would have had an extremely difficult time passing up Turner there, keg... but you gotta stick to your playbook in this league.

[keggerz]

Just some numbers to chew on...

In a Non-IDP leauge(because they usually have much fewer starters) where you start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1D

the RB positionally accounts for 22% of your team.

 

In an IDP league where you are starting 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 2DL, 3LB, 2DB

the RB positionally accounts for just 13% of your team..that is almost a 60% decrease in what I probably should call positional importance vs value (but really I think people get the point)...now again let's kick out the kicker and the number jumps up to just over 14%

 

and if you are in a full blown start 11 IDP league (1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 3-4 DL, 3-4LB, 2CB, 2S (total 11 IDP) ) then the RB positionally only accounts for just over 10% of your team....

 

so in other words, don't be afraid to wait on RB's in IDP leagues since they are proportional value is diluted by all the additional starters....add in just how prone to injury the RB position is and you will realize that the risk is in drafting them to early over players that will be truly difference makers.

 

Happy drafting and don't be afraid to think out of the box.

[keggerz]

I would have had an extremely difficult time passing up Turner there, keg... but you gotta stick to your playbook in this league.

at that point it wasn't about skipping RB it was about skipping Turner...I just dont have the faith in him that many do this year....I see a Falcons team that hasn't ever had back to back winning seasons and this year the schedule sure isn't doing them any favors plus add in the fact that Turner catches fewer passes then Reggie Bush's rushing average and I think you could be looking at a dissapointing pick especially when you factor in just how important those rushing TDs are for him (which of course I think he will see a large reduction in)...

 

Falcons schedule:

Mia

Car

@ NE

@ SF

CHI

@ DAL

@ NO

Wash

@ Car

@ NYG

TB

PHL

NO

@ NYJ

Buff

@ TB

 

That is NOT an easy schedule or rushing schedule for that matter in any stretch of the imagination..and quite honestly, that is the major reason I am not so high on Turner.

 

As for the rest of the available RBs at that time I felt still had enough question marks and when coupled with my views from an above post I think it helps to make sense of what I did and why.

 

edit to add some info from last years schdedule for turner:

VS the common teams from above this is what Turnerr did vs them last year

 

8 games vs this years common opponents: 175 rushes/636 yard/3.6 YPC 7 TDs*

*4 of those were in ONE game vs Carolina...2 others were vs the Saints(1 in each game), 1 vs TB in his best game of those 8 games.

@TB: 14 for 42 0TDs

@CAR 18 for 56 0TDs

CHI 25 for 54 0TDs

@PHL 17 for 58 0TDs

NO 27 for 96 1TD

CAR 24 for 117 4TDs

@NO 18 for 61 1TD

TB 32 for 152 1TD

 

Outside of 2 of those games Turner really struggled, imo...and this year as can be seen above his schedule isn't going to be a cake walk.

Edited August 15, 2009 by keggerz

[gilthorp]

I know you don't like Turner, but I'm going with a Wayne/Turner combo over Wayne/Smith there.

 

At 2.02, how could you go wrong there?

 

I'm also a very conventional drafter, so that's why I question pinning yourself on RB so early.

[Dallas Sooners]

To play devils advocate

 

 

 

IMO, there isnt a player you have drafted that couldnt be considered at least a slight reach, IMO. And passing on talent like Turner is over thinking it. The Falcons will continue to be a run first team, and Gonzo will open up the running game even more, regardless of opponent. Bush is a complete injury risk, who isnt even the starter any longer. Housh is changing offenses/teams, and went to a team with a very injury prone QB, who if he gets hurt again, there isnt a NFL ready QB on that roster. Steve Smith plays reckless, and his antics like punching a team mate, kicking his helmet, and style of play make him somewhat risky, plus Delhomme isnt an iron man either, and we saw Smiths stats plummet when Delhomme was injured. Rudd is playing for a new HC, and lost fellow LB Derrick Brooks which could lead teams to run away from him, besides the Bucs pass defense is getting so bad, teams can pass more effectively than run. DJ Williams is coming off an injury, is playing in a new scheme, with a new HC. Im not saying the LBs wont pan out, but that is alot of risk for a 5th and 6th round pick. I havent seen a single draft with Reggie as a 1st round pick, and Indy may be more of a run first team this year. Though this one is the least risky pick of them all. IMO, you are sticking to a initial strategy no matter what, instead of changing on the fly to take advantage of the talent on the board.

 

I hope you can get some luck, and everything fall into place, and you can win this league. Im just not sure this is one of the top 6 teams on paper at this point. Though these next few rounds are the money rounds. Make it happen......

[keggerz]

To play devils advocate

 

 

 

IMO, there isnt a player you have drafted that couldnt be considered at least a slight reach, IMO. And passing on talent like Turner is over thinking it. The Falcons will continue to be a run first team, and Gonzo will open up the running game even more, regardless of opponent. Bush is a complete injury risk, who isnt even the starter any longer. Housh is changing offenses/teams, and went to a team with a very injury prone QB, who if he gets hurt again, there isnt a NFL ready QB on that roster. Steve Smith plays reckless, and his antics like punching a team mate, kicking his helmet, and style of play make him somewhat risky, plus Delhomme isnt an iron man either, and we saw Smiths stats plummet when Delhomme was injured. Rudd is playing for a new HC, and lost fellow LB Derrick Brooks which could lead teams to run away from him, besides the Bucs pass defense is getting so bad, teams can pass more effectively than run. DJ Williams is coming off an injury, is playing in a new scheme, with a new HC. Im not saying the LBs wont pan out, but that is alot of risk for a 5th and 6th round pick. I havent seen a single draft with Reggie as a 1st round pick, and Indy may be more of a run first team this year. Though this one is the least risky pick of them all. IMO, you are sticking to a initial strategy no matter what, instead of changing on the fly to take advantage of the talent on the board.

 

I hope you can get some luck, and everything fall into place, and you can win this league. Im just not sure this is one of the top 6 teams on paper at this point. Though these next few rounds are the money rounds. Make it happen......

one thing that should be pointed out is that when you are drafting at the turns you may have to reach for a player a bit early if you want them (same thing Norton was saying in that thread BB linked to)...

I have no problem agreeing that Bush is an injury risk but he also has a ton of upside in this format...after the TOP couple of RBs there are just so many questions and concerns that I felt better going against the grain....

Housh is changing teams but as a WR 3 in a PPR format I have no problem relying on him...I actually probably have him ranked higher than most but I think that he and the Hawks will be much improved this year...especially on O....As for Wayne he is a pretty low floor and very nice upside....also note that Dungy(D minded coach) has given way for an offensive minded coach...you wont see much change in indy but I do expect to see them be a bit more aggressive and I do expect better numbers then last year where Manning wasn't himself to start the year due to surgery...as to Smith it is well known that I have a man crush on him but if you look at his floor...which to me is 2007 where he lost delhomme and had Vinny and Carr throwing to him he still put up 226 fantasy points in this format that year (14th WRs)....and I do see that as a floor....for Turner to put up 224 points he will need to rush for 1400 yards with 14 TDs and I just don't think those numbers are a given for him...to do that all Smitty or Wayne has to do is put up 80 catches with 1100 and 6 TDs..as for my LBs...i have Ruud as my #1 LB...simply put you just have to look at what Jim Bates does for MLBs add to the fact that I think that TB has some struggles on O this year and I have no problem taking Ruud (and yeah I seriously would have taken him over Willis)...As for DJ I know he is coming off of surgery and changing positions but it is a position that is fantasy friendly...the major concern with DJ is the play of the DLine in front of him...but I think that gets offset by the shear volume of tackle opportunities that the Denver D will face...I also know that when it comes to FF everyone needs a little luck...and I have no problem with my team not looking like a top team on paper...i would rather see it in the results....i wont disagree that I am sticking to a preconceived strategy but that is because the draft is falling like I thought it would.

[bushwacked]

What an odd first 2 rounds.

[keggerz]

Added Greg Olsen and Willie Parker to my team at the 7/8 turn

 

So far:

Reggie Bush, Willie Parker

Wayne, Smitty, Housh

Olsen

Ruud, DJ Williams

 

Coming into the draft I had my heart set on either Greg Olsen or Owen Daniels at TE. I wanted to wait on TE until the 9/10 turn and figured that would leave me looking at Daniels as I figured that Olsen would go earlier than that. Well when Daniels was taken just 3 picks in front of my 7th round selection and Olsen was still available at that time I figured I had to take Olsen. There was no way in my mind he would have been available at the 9/10 turn. I am very VERY high on Olsen so I am very glad to add him even if it is a couple of rounds earlier than I wanted to take a TE.

 

As for Parker, at some point I had to address my RB2 slot and while not a sexy pick Parker should be a solid RB2 with some upside of a possible lower level RB1. I did take a long time pondering one other player at this turn but decided to pass on him.

Edited August 16, 2009 by keggerz

[keggerz]

Added Greg Olsen and Willie Parker to my team at the 7/8 turn

I did take a long time pondering one other player at this turn but decided to pass on him.

well the player I was talking about was Carson Palmer...at the time there were only 3 teams without QBs

so I decided to roll the dice since I had a few other QBs I liked too...not as much as Palmer but enough...well after I picked

Parker and Olsen last pass I immediately sent the team after me a trade offer and then like 2 mins later rescinded it....this

was one of those times that patience paid off....However, my plan for the 9/10 turn was to go DL/DL and I wanted Suggs and one of Cole or Peppers but not both Cole and Peppers since they share the same bye week...so when Suggs went 2 picks in front of me it made it pretty easy to take Cole and Palmer...I did briefly flirt with the notion of taking both DLs but I think that Palmer was a prudent choice at this juncture of the draft.

 

The team so far:

Palmer

RBush, Parker

Wayne, Smitty, Housh

Olsen,

Cole

Ruud, DJ Williams

[Bronco Billy]

The team so far:

Palmer

RBush, Parker

Wayne, Smitty, Housh

Olsen,

Cole

Ruud, DJ Williams

 

That's a damned solid team, and has the looks of a contender. People are going to rip you for your mediocre QB and RB situation, but you ought to get solid week in and week out production from both slots, and you are in a great spot to create a very good to great QBBC. What puts this team ahead of the curve is that while you're getting solid production from your top 2 positions, you ought to be reaping superb benefits from your WRs, TE, LBs, and now DE. This has the earmarks of being a very tough team to deal with every week.

 

It ought to be very interesting watching you fill out the rest of it.

[keggerz]

updated the 1st post with the draft thru the early part of round 13