Darren McFadden

[irish]

Go for it guys, drink the Cool-Aid.

 

I'm not saying he isn't a talented guy. I AM saying that he is sharing carries with two other backs that Davis and Cable love. DMC is Al's boy - but Fargas was Al's boy first and has paid his dues - he'll continue to get 15+ touches a game.

 

And the biggest factor that all of you seem to be overlooking here, is that DMC plays for the OAKLAND RAIDERS.

Or have you all forgotten we have an absolutely horrendous offensive line, can barely keep our offense on the field and most importantly - play from behind almost every game? Sure we drafted a WR which should help the run game by stretching the defense, but not help that significantly.

 

McFadden is a #3 RB in PPR (lower in non-PPR) with upside. Do not draft him as your #2 RB.

 

The Kool-aid is good. What I like about DMC is that you can draft him as a #3 in some cases and I truly believe that he will perform as a #2 with upside to have even #1 type games. The one thing you mentioned is a main reason why he'll have success and you got to see a bit of that last night. DMC will be a big part of the passing game on screen plays being a HUGH safety valve for Russell. Just looking at my projections, which are 1 man's opinions (and everyone is entitled to their own) DMC will total over 100 points (106.5) or 6.7 pts per game avg. (assuming 16 games) on the season just from his part in the receiving game. If he can total 50-60 rushing yards a game (he averaged 38.4 ruypg last year and was hurt) to add to that, it would put him between 11 and 13 pts per game avg. That's not factoring in any rushing TDs. I have him scoring 237 points on the year or 14.8 pts per game. I know that this is a new and different year but if you look at last year's stats, the 12th best RB in PPR leagues had 237 points, the 15th best had 230 pts and the 16th dropped off to 215 pts. Why can't DMC be ranked in the top 15 is what I ask?

 

I view DMC as a solid #2 in PPR leagues and a low end #2 to high end #3 in non-PPR leagues.

Edited August 14, 2009 by irish

[Cunning Runt]

Any chance Bush or Fargas get traded before the season starts?

 

If not, which of the three is the odd man out? I seriously doubt they would have an equal time-share. I've gotta think it would be Fargas.

[irish]

Any chance Bush or Fargas get traded before the season starts?

 

If not, which of the three is the odd man out? I seriously doubt they would have an equal time-share. I've gotta think it would be Fargas.

 

I would have to agree with that and have Fargas as the Raider RB with the least fantasy value. I think DMC starts and Bush becomes the short yardage/GL back while Fargas will be the guy used to give DMC a breather.

[bushwacked]

Assuming McFadden is healthy , the Raiders have a lot of money invested in McFadden to give Bush or Fargas the motherload.

 

I wish Irish would talk more about his rankings and projections.

Edited August 14, 2009 by bushwacked

[kpholmes]

The Kool-aid is good. What I like about DMC is that you can draft him as a #3 in some cases and I truly believe that he will perform as a #2 with upside to have even #1 type games. The one thing you mentioned is a main reason why he'll have success and you got to see a bit of that last night. DMC will be a big part of the passing game on screen plays being a HUGH safety valve for Russell. Just looking at my projections, which are 1 man's opinions (and everyone is entitled to their own) DMC will total over 100 points (106.5) or 6.7 pts per game avg. (assuming 16 games) on the season just from his part in the receiving game. If he can total 50-60 rushing yards a game (he averaged 38.4 ruypg last year and was hurt) to add to that, it would put him between 11 and 13 pts per game avg. That's not factoring in any rushing TDs. I have him scoring 237 points on the year or 14.8 pts per game. I know that this is a new and different year but if you look at last year's stats, the 12th best RB in PPR leagues had 237 points, the 15th best had 230 pts and the 16th dropped off to 215 pts. Why can't DMC be ranked in the top 15 is what I ask?

 

I view DMC as a solid #2 in PPR leagues and a low end #2 to high end #3 in non-PPR leagues.

 

Last year he had just under 9 carries a game, and around 2 receptions per game. In his 13 games played.

Sure, he'll be more healthy this season and I can see him getting 10-12 carries a game with 2-3 receptions.

 

Now if you think those numbers are going to dramatically increase to the statistics you're talking about with Fargas holding down his starting role and after the show Bush put on in Week 17 last season, you go right ahead.

The fact is that the Raiders averaged 29 rushes a game last season, and 28-29 is about where Cable wants it.

Fargas has had 15 attempts a game for the past two seasons, and I can't see that changing.

DMC will most likely sit around 10.

Now that leaves 1-4 carries for Michael Bush based on the average they want to have.

Like I said... Bush showed what he could do last season, they want to give him the ball more and have a NYG three-headed ground game. So if anyone is getting more carries from Fargas this year, it will be Bush - not McFadden.

 

They will get DMC the ball on passing downs and try to put him out at WR occasionally. But if you think he's going to be a bigger priority in the passing game than Zach Miller or DHB and put up Marshall Faulk-like numbers - you're crazy.

 

I would have to agree with that and have Fargas as the Raider RB with the least fantasy value. I think DMC starts and Bush becomes the short yardage/GL back while Fargas will be the guy used to give DMC a breather.

Any other team, this might make sense.

This is not how the Raiders do things though. Al Davis tried to trade Bush twice last season and couldn't get the value he wanted.

Could Fargas get traded? Sure. But he most likely won't because of the nice contract Davis gave him last season.

 

You need to realize how Al Davis does things. Fargas started out behind Charlie Garner, Tyrone Wheatley and Lamont Jordan and has worked hard for Al Davis to become the kind of back Al wants and has proved his dedication to the Raiders. So Al Davis rewards him and makes him the starter and gives him a big contract. Fargas is a "yes sir" kind of guy, and he has the team owner keeping him in that starting role.

Al thinks that Fargas is a 1st down RB who can take a beating and hold onto the football for him, and as long as that's the case - DMC will be change of pace back - which is how Al Davis wants to use him.

Aside from being traded, Fargas would have to really screw up to get that 15 carry average taken away from him.

 

Now, I could be way off base with all of this of course. I'm just a fan after all - I'm not the coach or anything.

But this is how Al Davis tends to do things. Is there logic behind it? Of course not. But when Al Davis wants something a certain way, it's going to be that way.

 

 

I'd love it for some other Raider fans to chime in and give their opinions.

Edited August 14, 2009 by kpholmes

[irish]

Last year he had just under 9 carries a game, and around 2 receptions per game. In his 13 games played.

Sure, he'll be more healthy this season and I can see him getting 10-12 carries a game with 2-3 receptions.

 

This is exactly what I'm saying and would give him almost exactly the numbers I'm talking about. Let me use the upper end of your numbers and project out.

 

12 carries a game for 16 games = 192 carries at 4.5 ypc which is about what he had last year (4.4) = 864 rushing yards.

3 receptions a game for 16 games = 48 receptions at 9.8 ypc which is what he did last year = 470 receiving yards. Total yards = 1,334 yards

Add to that 7 TDs (he had 4 last year) and you get 223.4 pts on the year = 13.96 (14 pts per game). I have him slightly higher than that at 237 pts on the year and 14.8 ppg.

 

So really what's the difference? You think Fargas will be the starter and DMC will be the CoP, while Bush becomes the GL/short yardage banger. That's fine. I just think that both DMC and Bush will shave touches off of Fargas and looking at what you can see for DMC in regard to per game touches, unless you disagree on the TDs, we are seeing things in the same light in regard to fantasy production, no?

 

ETA: The Raiders had as a team 459 carries (35 carries from QBs/WRs) last year and 509 the year before that. So to think that they can have about that or in between those 2 figures between the 3 RBs is about right. Let's use 460. DMC gets 200 carries, Bush gets 140-150 and Fargas gets 110-120. I see it shaking out something like that. Fargas had 219 carries last year and that won't happen again, unless there is an injury to Bush or DMC.

Edited August 14, 2009 by irish

[bushwacked]

Appreciate the take KP; even though I'm not sure I see it. How do they rush it the same amount of times as last year and then have Bush and McFadden get more carries with Fargas staying the same?

 

I realize that Al is getting senile, but he spent a 1.4 and paid $60 million for a guy he wants to use as a change of pace back without even giving him a chance? Why did McFadden get more carries than Fargas in Week 2 last year (when I think he got his turf toe)?

 

Didn't Lamont Jordan come in as a free agent as the man right away - which seems to dispute the notion of putting in your time to become the #1?

[Cunning Runt]

Appreciate the take KP; even though I'm not sure I see it. How do they rush it the same amount of times as last year and then have Bush and McFadden get more carries with Fargas staying the same?

 

I realize that Al is getting senile, but he spent a 1.4 and paid $60 million for a guy he wants to use as a change of pace back without even giving him a chance? Why did McFadden get more carries than Fargas in Week 2 last year (when I think he got his turf toe)?

 

Didn't Lamont Jordan come in as a free agent as the man right away - which seems to dispute the notion of putting in your time to become the #1?

 

Gotta agree with this.

 

I don't think there's any chance in hell Fargas gets more carries/touches than McFadden (barring injury).

[polksalet]

Assuming McFadden is healthy , the Raiders have a lot of money invested in McFadden to give Bush or Fargas the motherload.

 

I wish Irish would talk more about his rankings and projections.

 

I would rather assume im winning powerball than assume anything regarding mcfadden.

[Seahawks21]

Were they really going to give Fargas that many carries last year if McFadden didn't get hurt after his 160 yard game? If McFadden plays well, it is going to be awfully difficult to justify giving Fargas the carries.

[Rovers]

I just traded McFadden in a dynasty league. He's a sure bet to be a stud now.

[Return Of S&B]

I just picked up Fargas off of waivers in a dynasty leage so he will either get benched or injured...

 

As much as I appreciate the contribution Fargas has made to the team the past couple years...I believe its time for the Raiders to go with their two most talented RBs, Bush and McFadden...with Bush being the starter and McFadden being the change of pace and third down back.

 

A Bush/McFadden duo is what I am hoping for this season, and what I am expecting.

 

KP, a lot of what you wrote makes sense but you failed to address one issue Fargas had throughout College and the NFL...the injury bug. Six years in the league, he has only finished one season without an injury. I just dont see Fargas finishing the season once again, but this time the injury bug will likely hit him earlier this season, leaving the door wide open for both Bush and McFadden this year.

[godtomsatan]

I have a hard time believing a healthy DMC doesn't factor real big in the Raiders gameplan. He simply looks better than Fargas.

[Sugar Magnolia]

He is so much more talented than Fargas. If he stays healthy it will be like the AP and Chester Taylor, AP's rookie year. It won't be long before McFadden gets most of the carries.

Edited August 16, 2009 by Sugar Magnolia

[Scooby's Hubby]

Easy to hate on a guy who had so much hype out of college. But he is a super stud and adds an element of taking it to the house on any play. The Raiders will want to use him as much as possible including the passing game. Find him some space and watch him go.

[Jackass]

i think he's a guy that people have strong opinions on. I think he should be able to put up some decent numbers both rushing and receiving and wouldn't mind him on my team. I'm guessing there's a couple people in each league that will reach for him, but if he falls to me i'll feel good about taking him.

[WaterMan]

Moreno is questioned based on his team's QB and D, but if you play for the Raiders, everything's fine?

[Clubfoothead]

If you want McFadden, you will have to draft him as a #2. No chance he's falling to #3 RB territory. I'm not going to give away any of the pay content, but let's just assume that he's in the top 36 of the overall PPR rankings. Divide 36 by 12. So there's your reality check no matter what you think his stats will be.

 

The WR-WR thing is really popular this year but the folks drafting RB-WR-RB or WR-RB-RB or QB-RB-RB are going to be after him too. If you plan on going WR-WR and getting McFadden as your #2 you better have an early 4th round pick and some luck.

 

IMHO.

[Return Of S&B]

http://www.rotowire.com/football/latestnews.htm

 

Darren McFadden (RotoWire)

 

According to head coach Tom Cable, McFadden is "pretty close" to starting, the Oakland Tribune reports.

 

Analysis: Cable mentioned that he was looking to get McFadden more than 20 touches in a game, which is a good sign for McFadden's fantasy owners. Justin Fargas is a favorite of the Oakland coaching staff, but McFadden is too talented to remain in a reserve role.

Edited August 16, 2009 by Return Of S&B

[Return Of S&B]

Stats from last year....notice the avg gain per carry and the td stats.

 

D.McFadden - 113 carries, 499yrds total, avg 4.4, and scored 4 TD's.

M.Bush - 95 carries, 421yrds total, avg 4.4, and scored 3 TD's.

J.Fargas - 218 carries, 853yrds total, avg 3.9, and scored 1 TD.

 

Fargas had over 200 carries last year but only got in the endzone one time and he was the only RB to avg under 4 yards per carry.

Edited August 17, 2009 by Return Of S&B

[Sugar Magnolia]

okay I'll reach out there and say... McFadden will be the FF player in 2009 that Turner was in 2008. If you pick him up in the 3rd or 4th round and he stays healthy, he will be gold.

[Seahawks21]

Moreno is questioned based on his team's QB and D, but if you play for the Raiders, everything's fine?

The biggest knock on Moreno is that everybody figures McDaniels is going to try to throw a bunch with a bad QB and D.

 

The biggest upside of McFadden is that everybody figures the Raiders will throw as little as possible because of their bad QB and D.

[irish]

http://www.rotowire.com/football/latestnews.htm

 

Darren McFadden (RotoWire)

 

According to head coach Tom Cable, McFadden is "pretty close" to starting, the Oakland Tribune reports.

 

Analysis: Cable mentioned that he was looking to get McFadden more than 20 touches in a game, which is a good sign for McFadden's fantasy owners. Justin Fargas is a favorite of the Oakland coaching staff, but McFadden is too talented to remain in a reserve role.

 

Well we all know that DMC is the starting RB now as I had hoped he would be and now he just has to stay healthy and with Fargas basically out of the way, as I thought he would be, and Bush taking on the tough inside carries, DMC is in position for the big year I was hoping for.

 

:fingerscrossed: