Think twice before drafting Michael Turner

[keggerz]

Falcons schedule:

Mia

Car

@ NE

@ SF

CHI

@ DAL

@ NO

Wash

@ Car

@ NYG

TB

PHL

NO

@ NYJ

Buff

@ TB

 

That is NOT an easy schedule or rushing schedule for that matter in any stretch of the imagination..and quite honestly, that is the major reason I am not so high on Turner.

 

here is some info from last years schedule for turner:

VS the common teams from above this is what Turner did vs them last year

 

8 games vs this years common opponents: 175 rushes/636 yard/3.6 YPC 7 TDs*

*4 of those were in ONE game vs Carolina...2 others were vs the Saints(1 in each game), 1 vs TB in his best game of those 8 games.

@TB: 14 for 42 3.0 YPC 0TDs

@CAR 18 for 56 3.1 YPC 0TDs

CHI 25 for 54 2.2 YPC 0TDs

@PHL 17 for 58 3.4 YPC 0TDs

NO 27 for 96 3.6 YPC 1TD

CAR 24 for 117 4.9 YPC 4TDs

@NO 18 for 61 3.4 YPC 1TD

TB 32 for 152 4.8 YPC 1TD

 

IMO, outside of 2 of those games Turner really struggled...does anyone really see a team on this years schedule where you can say that Turner will get 4 TDs against them? Surely no one thinks it will happen against CAR again...and this year as can be seen above his schedule isn't going to be a cake walk.

 

I say draft with caution because I think many that will be drafting Turner are doing so expecting a repeat of last years numbers and I think that is going to be a long hard row to hoe...and remember that Turner barely catches more passes then Reggie Bush averages rushing the football.

 

EDIT to add the following:

Rushing Stats while behind:

210 rushes

691 yards

3.3 YPC

but on a positive note he did score 10 of his 17 TDs while behind

 

oh and one last tidbit:

In the Falcons 5 losses

92 rushes

298 yards

3.2 YPC

3 TDs

 

I think the Falcons could realistically be looking at a 5 win season (split with Car & NO, sweep TB, Buff)...wouldnt surprise me to see them beat Wash in ATL and maybe win @ SF...I think 8 wins is their ceiling...

 

You have been warned

Edited August 15, 2009 by keggerz

[KordellStewartSucks4Life]

Falcons schedule:

Mia

Car

@ NE

@ SF

CHI

@ DAL

@ NO

Wash

@ Car

@ NYG

TB

PHL

NO

@ NYJ

Buff

@ TB

 

That is NOT an easy schedule or rushing schedule for that matter in any stretch of the imagination..and quite honestly, that is the major reason I am not so high on Turner.

 

here is some info from last years schedule for turner:

VS the common teams from above this is what Turner did vs them last year

 

8 games vs this years common opponents: 175 rushes/636 yard/3.6 YPC 7 TDs*

*4 of those were in ONE game vs Carolina...2 others were vs the Saints(1 in each game), 1 vs TB in his best game of those 8 games.

@TB: 14 for 42 3.0 YPC 0TDs

@CAR 18 for 56 3.1 YPC 0TDs

CHI 25 for 54 2.2 YPC 0TDs

@PHL 17 for 58 3.4 YPC 0TDs

NO 27 for 96 3.6 YPC 1TD

CAR 24 for 117 4.9 YPC 4TDs

@NO 18 for 61 3.4 YPC 1TD

TB 32 for 152 4.8 YPC 1TD

 

IMO, outside of 2 of those games Turner really struggled...does anyone really see a team on this years schedule where you can say that Turner will get 4 TDs against them? Surely no one thinks it will happen against CAR again...and this year as can be seen above his schedule isn't going to be a cake walk.

 

I say draft with caution because I think many that will be drafting Turner are doing so expecting a repeat of last years numbers and I think that is going to be a long hard row to hoe...and remember that Turner barely catches more passes then Reggie Bush averages rushing the football.

 

EDIT to add the following:

Rushing Stats while behind:

210 rushes

691 yards

3.3 YPC

but on a positive note he did score 10 of his 17 TDs while behind

 

oh and one last tidbit:

In the Falcons 5 losses

92 rushes

298 yards

3.2 YPC

3 TDs

 

I think the Falcons could realistically be looking at a 5 win season (split with Car & NO, sweep TB, Buff)...wouldnt surprise me to see them beat Wash in ATL and maybe win @ SF...I think 8 wins is their ceiling...

 

You have been warned

 

If he's there at 9, I'm taking him

[Rovers]

If he's there at 9, I'm taking him

 

I think Gonzo will help take teams away from keying on Turner. In addition, I am not a great believer in SOS, as it can change very quickly over the course of a season.

[keggerz]

I think Gonzo will help take teams away from keying on Turner. In addition, I am not a great believer in SOS, as it can change very quickly over the course of a season.

i dont doubt that Gonzo may help and fwiw I am not looking at any SOS numbers I am strictly looking at their schedule and processing in my head what I know about the teams they will play along with how I think those teams will perform on D...but hey it is just my opinion and one I stand by as I passed on Turner at the 1/2 turn(drafting 12th) in the SOFA IDP Draft (ppr)

Edited August 15, 2009 by keggerz

[The Irish Doggy]

This is all true. However, I like Ryan another year older and the heavy defensive draft to balance things out a bit.

[Henry Muto]

Also don't forget he logged enough carries to take him over the no return threshold last year. S-Jackson did that in 2006 and he has never been the same getting injured every year after that. Not sure why but once a RB goes over that mark they seem to break down in the next year. Personally I am staying away from him considering you have to take him in the top 4.

[gilthorp]

He's a guy that may not gain as many yards as he did last year, but there is no doubt that if they are within the 5, he'll get his TD's. I think there is very little risk in Turner this year.

[Clubfoothead]

I am not a great believer in SOS, as it can change very quickly over the course of a season.

 

I'm not sure I am either, for the exact same reason. That being said, I know what I know. He's in a tough division defensively. When trying to decide between him and Jackson in a recent draft at 1.05, I closed my eyes, held my breath and went Jackson because of Turner's schedule. But I'm no expert.

 

I still like Turner.

[ts]

Ok by me if he averages 3.5 YPC as long as he gets 350+ carries and finds the EZ 12+ times this season ... none of my leagues award FF points based on YPC ... I see your point Keg, but as noted somewhere above, he's a low-risk 1st round choice (as opposed to say SJax who is IMO higher-risk/similar-reward unless PPR) so if Turner is on the board at 1.6 or higher (where I'll be picking in the leagues where I know my draft slot so far) I'd have no problem taking him.

Edited August 15, 2009 by ts

[keggerz]

Ok by me if he averages 3.5 YPC as long as he gets 350+ carries and finds the EZ 12+ times this season ... none of my leagues award FF points based on YPC ... I see your point Keg, but as noted somewhere above, he's a low-risk 1st round choice (as opposed to say SJax who is IMO high-risk/high-reward) so if Turner is on the board at 1.6 or higher (where I'll be picking in the leagues where I know my draft slot so far) I'd have no problem taking him.

see but I think 350+ carries is going to be hard to reach considering I think they will be playing from behind much more....I think he could end up closer to 300 attempts at 3.9 with 10 TDs...so that is around 1200 yards and 10 TDs...to me in a PPR league I have no problem passing on that type of production for a WR that will be in the 1100-1200 yard area (minimally) with 8-10 TDs and 80+ catches...

[ts]

...to me in a PPR league I have no problem passing on that type of production for a WR that will be in the 1100-1200 yard area (minimally) with 8-10 TDs and 80+ catches...

 

The PPR assumption changes things up a bit, but since we are now talking about a host of WRs (such as Fitz, AJ, Moss, Calvin, Smith, Wayne, Jennings, White, Boldin, Bowe, Colston) that could realistically post the numbers you suggest above - I'd still consider Turner at 1.6 or 1.7 since there are so few non-RBBC RBs these days, and I just listed 11 WRs that fit your critera.

 

In any event, I don't really expect Turner to be on the board by the time I pick in most/all of my leagues this year so likely won't be faced with the decision ... interesting academic exercise regardless.

[BillyBalata]

I hear what you are saying and it makes some sense and you could be right.

 

But at the same time I go back to last year, and midway thru the year we were hearing alot of the same things. Sure, he's doing well now, but look at some of the opponents hes had, look out when you get to weeks 15 and 16, come playoff time his schedule is pretty tough with the TBay and MN D's. I ended up swallowing the kool-aid then and traded him away in two leagues I had him. He ended up scoring 24 and 12 pts those two weeks. Both those leagues I managed to make the SB, one I still won, but the other, I lost to the guy I traded Turner too.

 

So, while there may be some valid reasons to temper your expectations this year compared to last year, he's still the #1 rb on his team who gets all the goal line carries. I may slide another rb or two ahead of him in a PPR, but in non-ppr, recently I was thrilled to get him with the #5 pick.

[keggerz]

The PPR assumption changes things up a bit, but since we are now talking about a host of WRs (such as Fitz, AJ, Moss, Calvin, Smith, Wayne, Jennings, White, Boldin, Bowe, Colston) that could realistically post the numbers you suggest above - I'd still consider Turner at 1.6 or 1.7 since there are so few non-RBBC RBs these days, and I just listed 11 WRs that fit your critera.

 

In any event, I don't really expect Turner to be on the board by the time I pick in most/all of my leagues this year so likely won't be faced with the decision ... interesting academic exercise regardless.

I think the important part of what I wrote about the WRs was the word MINIMMALLY but I do understand your position and stance

 

I hear what you are saying and it makes some sense and you could be right.

 

But at the same time I go back to last year, and midway thru the year we were hearing alot of the same things. Sure, he's doing well now, but look at some of the opponents hes had, look out when you get to weeks 15 and 16, come playoff time his schedule is pretty tough with the TBay and MN D's. I ended up swallowing the kool-aid then and traded him away in two leagues I had him. He ended up scoring 24 and 12 pts those two weeks. Both those leagues I managed to make the SB, one I still won, but the other, I lost to the guy I traded Turner too.

 

So, while there may be some valid reasons to temper your expectations this year compared to last year, he's still the #1 rb on his team who gets all the goal line carries. I may slide another rb or two ahead of him in a PPR, but in non-ppr, recently I was thrilled to get him with the #5 pick.

there are always going to be times when a guy goes off against a really tough D and does the complete opposite against a cupcake....but this year I think the Falcons struggle...I just see a tough schedule and when you couple that with the fact that Turner needs to be close to what he did last year (which would be no small feat with an easy schedule) to match or exceed what some WRs will produce I think it is easier to see why people should have some pause prior to drafting him...

 

at the worst I think what I put out there is still pretty good food for thought.

[irish]

Turner hasn't been on my draft board all off-season. Why? Because I wouldn't take him in the Top 5 nore would I in the bottom unless I was in a 16 teamer and had the 16th pick and he fell to there. Even then a player like Westy or Frank Gore would be available and I'd go with them.

Edited August 15, 2009 by irish

[pseudolefty]

True, the schedule looks tougher, but also note that Carolina lost one of its big run stuffers Kemoeatu in the middle for the entire season. That's 2 games against a team that's already shorthanded on the line. Plus, Ryan's going to be better, the OLine's going to be stronger, and the addition of Gonzalez should open things up even more. Sure, Gonzalez will get some redzone TDs, but Atlanta is committed to the run and turner will get a full load of carries and redzone opportunities. Turner is a BEAST! I see him putting up some solid nos. again.

[Avernus]

I landed him at the 9 spot in the Huddle Ladder league and I saw nobody else with that kind of value there...

 

he has relatively very little mileage over his career and seems to follow LT's conditioning regimen...

 

you can't mention SJax here IMO because he's kind of lazy.....Turner is in an up and coming offense and team that added Gonzales at TE with another year under their belts...

 

also when you mention SOS....I see the Falcons getting into high scoring affairs in 8 or 9 of those games...and Rovers also mentioned that the SoS fluctuates throughout the season....

 

I look at it this way...

 

Mia - I see this game as a 24-17 game and either RB on both these teams could clear 100 yds

Car - isn't this usually a shootout at ATL?

@ NE - could be a tough game...I see the Falcons throwing more and Turner needs to be more involved in the passing game..

@ SF - Turner should have a big game here

CHI - I actually see an at least decent performance here as well...but maybe 80 and a TD

@ DAL - I see another strong game

@ NO - shootout? - yes..

Wash - ouch..no..

@ Car - I see this a low scoring game at Carolina....60+ yds and a TD if you're lucky..

@ NYG - tough game here as well...

TB - Tampa at home?...I see a bounce back performance

PHL - this can go either way as the Eagles D is notorious for getting gashed by backs like Turner

NO - I see another good performance here..

@ NYJ - ehh....I dunno why but I have a bad feeling about this one for no reason..

Buff - tough game here as well...even at home, but he could still turn out a big game..

@ TB - I see a decent game here....80 and a TD

 

the games are tough because the teams are good....but the RB matchups at this point (which will change in perspective by week 4) aren't as bad as advertised...

[Randall]

I had him last season in Huddle Ladder and against weak teams he exploded; against good defenses he was often shut down.

 

Tony G is an excellent blocker and receiver so I believe he will be more consistent this year even though he will get fewer carries. I think he'll be top 10 because he is facing some mediocre defenses.In those games I think he'll pile up the yards.

 

I don't have him in any league this year. Last year I got him in the 3rd and Forte in the 5th; Ray Rice is my sleeper this season.

Edited August 15, 2009 by Randall

[Avernus]

I had him last season in Huddle Ladder and against weak teams he exploded; against good defenses he was often shut down.

 

Tony G is an excellent blocker and receiver so I believe he will be more consistent this year even though he will get fewer carries. I think he'll be top 10 because he is facing some mediocre defenses.

 

I don't have him in any league this year. Last year I got him in the 3rd and Forte in the 5th; Ray Rice is my sleeper this season.

 

I had the same outlook on him last year....

 

I don't think he faces as many really tough D's this year....the schedule is just more balanced out, I think...

[KordellStewartSucks4Life]

see but I think 350+ carries is going to be hard to reach considering I think they will be playing from behind much more....I think he could end up closer to 300 attempts at 3.9 with 10 TDs...so that is around 1200 yards and 10 TDs...to me in a PPR league I have no problem passing on that type of production for a WR that will be in the 1100-1200 yard area (minimally) with 8-10 TDs and 80+ catches...

 

How do you know they will be playing from behind?

[keggerz]

How do you know they will be playing from behind?

i already said I thought they could be in for a 6 win season with 8 wins at the very most...that means I think they will be playing from behind...it is my opinion

[keggerz]

True, the schedule looks tougher, but also note that Carolina lost one of its big run stuffers Kemoeatu in the middle for the entire season. That's 2 games against a team that's already shorthanded on the line. Plus, Ryan's going to be better, the OLine's going to be stronger, and the addition of Gonzalez should open things up even more. Sure, Gonzalez will get some redzone TDs, but Atlanta is committed to the run and turner will get a full load of carries and redzone opportunities. Turner is a BEAST! I see him putting up some solid nos. again.

1700 with 17 TDs is far greater than solid nos...those numbers are not going to be easy to reproduce....I do agree with you about the los of Kemoeatu and how that will hurt the Car defense....but still stand by what I said that they wont let him rush for 4 TDs in one game

 

I landed him at the 9 spot in the Huddle Ladder league and I saw nobody else with that kind of value there...

 

he has relatively very little mileage over his career and seems to follow LT's conditioning regimen...

 

you can't mention SJax here IMO because he's kind of lazy.....Turner is in an up and coming offense and team that added Gonzales at TE with another year under their belts...

 

also when you mention SOS....I see the Falcons getting into high scoring affairs in 8 or 9 of those games...and Rovers also mentioned that the SoS fluctuates throughout the season....

 

I look at it this way...

 

Mia - I see this game as a 24-17 game and either RB on both these teams could clear 100 yds

Car - isn't this usually a shootout at ATL?

@ NE - could be a tough game...I see the Falcons throwing more and Turner needs to be more involved in the passing game..

@ SF - Turner should have a big game here

CHI - I actually see an at least decent performance here as well...but maybe 80 and a TD

@ DAL - I see another strong game

@ NO - shootout? - yes..

Wash - ouch..no..

@ Car - I see this a low scoring game at Carolina....60+ yds and a TD if you're lucky..

@ NYG - tough game here as well...

TB - Tampa at home?...I see a bounce back performance

PHL - this can go either way as the Eagles D is notorious for getting gashed by backs like Turner

NO - I see another good performance here..

@ NYJ - ehh....I dunno why but I have a bad feeling about this one for no reason..

Buff - tough game here as well...even at home, but he could still turn out a big game..

@ TB - I see a decent game here....80 and a TD

 

the games are tough because the teams are good....but the RB matchups at this point (which will change in perspective by week 4) aren't as bad as advertised...

that looks exactly like it is written by a turner owner

 

 

I had the same outlook on him last year....

 

I don't think he faces as many really tough D's this year....the schedule is just more balanced out, I think...

you are semi crazy if you dont see schedule full of tough Ds...you think he will succeed against them that is fine but he has a ton of strong Ds to play against...

[BillyBalata]

but still stand by what I said that they wont let him rush for 4 TDs in one game

 

 

That's what I like about you keg, going out on a limb with predictions like this one.

[keggerz]

That's what I like about you keg, going out on a limb with predictions like this one.

or anyone else

[Avernus]

that looks exactly like it is written by a turner owner

 

no, because I led the charge against him last year....

 

Atlanta usually has high scoring games at home against their divisional rivals and their matchups on offense aren't that tough...

 

especially with the fact that they could be in a high scoring game quite a few times this season and will need to use Turner in the passing game for the underneath stuff....

 

I think you're lowballing the Atlanta offense a bit.....because I did that last year for my own reasons...one of them being a rookie QB, so-so OL and only one weapon in the passing game...

 

now Matt Ryan is proven to be at least a good QB, the OL is good...Roddy White is a monster and they added Gonzo....

 

gotta like it..

[keggerz]

no, because I led the charge against him last year....

 

Atlanta usually has high scoring games at home against their divisional rivals and their matchups on offense aren't that tough...

especially with the fact that they could be in a high scoring game quite a few times this season and will need to use Turner in the passing game for the underneath stuff....

 

I think you're lowballing the Atlanta offense a bit.....because I did that last year for my own reasons...one of them being a rookie QB, so-so OL and only one weapon in the passing game...

 

now Matt Ryan is proven to be at least a good QB, the OL is good...Roddy White is a monster and they added Gonzo....

 

gotta like it..

you do realize that if you buy a 12 pack of beer you will have twice as many beers as Turner had receptions last year....Turner and passing game should not be used in the same sentence unless it is to point out that he isn't involved in it.

 

I just might be wrong about ATL, it wouldn't be the first time but it is my opinion...I think everyone knows that I am big on stats and trends and a major trend is that the Falcons have never put together back to back winning seasons....even when they had that great QB Mike Vick under center