keggerz Posted August 16, 2009 Author Share Posted August 16, 2009 this would make for a great trivia question: What RB did the 2008 NO Saints hold to 2 catches for -1 yard? Answer: Michael Turner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 you do realize that if you buy a 12 pack of beer you will have twice as many beers as Turner had receptions last year....Turner and passing game should not be used in the same sentence unless it is to point out that he isn't involved in it. I just might be wrong about ATL, it wouldn't be the first time but it is my opinion...I think everyone knows that I am big on stats and trends and a major trend is that the Falcons have never put together back to back winning seasons....even when they had that great QB Mike Vick under center  you have to realize that they had a rookie QB and a new RB that never really worked on catching the ball....it's not like he can't do it....but Norwood was used more for that....  I would assume Turner to expand on that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 a major trend is that the Falcons have never put together back to back winning seasons....even when they had that great QB Mike Vick under center heard that on the radio the other day... crazy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isleseeya Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 All my main leagues are PPR and that in itself drops turner for me alot ...throw in the good info from Keggerz initial post , i think he will not end up on my teams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retrograde assault Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 I traded S Jax this year and kept Turner. I think Turner has one more good year in him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 Turner burned the Lions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delicious_bass Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 Made the mistake of passing on Turner last season. With a new coach, rookie QB, etc figured that Atlanta would have trouble moving the ball. Â Really kinda hoping I dont have to make the call on him this year... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooknladder Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 is everyone here putting Forte over Turner in a PPR? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 (edited) is everyone here putting Forte over Turner in a PPR? Â Absolutely. He outpointed him last year and I expect more of the same this year. Edited August 16, 2009 by irish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 Made the mistake of passing on Turner last season. With a new coach, rookie QB, etc figured that Atlanta would have trouble moving the ball. Really kinda hoping I dont have to make the call on him this year...  That's really the time to get a RB because he's going to be a workhorse. If the rookie QB is going to be throwing 30+ passes a game, then pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LayLow Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 Falcons schedule:Mia Car @ NE @ SF CHI @ DAL @ NO Wash @ Car @ NYG TB PHL NO @ NYJ Buff @ TB  That is NOT an easy schedule or rushing schedule for that matter in any stretch of the imagination..and quite honestly, that is the major reason I am not so high on Turner.  here is some info from last years schedule for turner: VS the common teams from above this is what Turner did vs them last year  8 games vs this years common opponents: 175 rushes/636 yard/3.6 YPC 7 TDs* *4 of those were in ONE game vs Carolina...2 others were vs the Saints(1 in each game), 1 vs TB in his best game of those 8 games. @TB: 14 for 42 3.0 YPC 0TDs @CAR 18 for 56 3.1 YPC 0TDs CHI 25 for 54 2.2 YPC 0TDs @PHL 17 for 58 3.4 YPC 0TDs NO 27 for 96 3.6 YPC 1TD CAR 24 for 117 4.9 YPC 4TDs @NO 18 for 61 3.4 YPC 1TD TB 32 for 152 4.8 YPC 1TD  IMO, outside of 2 of those games Turner really struggled...does anyone really see a team on this years schedule where you can say that Turner will get 4 TDs against them? Surely no one thinks it will happen against CAR again...and this year as can be seen above his schedule isn't going to be a cake walk.  I say draft with caution because I think many that will be drafting Turner are doing so expecting a repeat of last years numbers and I think that is going to be a long hard row to hoe...and remember that Turner barely catches more passes then Reggie Bush averages rushing the football.  EDIT to add the following: Rushing Stats while behind: 210 rushes 691 yards 3.3 YPC but on a positive note he did score 10 of his 17 TDs while behind  oh and one last tidbit: In the Falcons 5 losses 92 rushes 298 yards 3.2 YPC 3 TDs  I think the Falcons could realistically be looking at a 5 win season (split with Car & NO, sweep TB, Buff)...wouldnt surprise me to see them beat Wash in ATL and maybe win @ SF...I think 8 wins is their ceiling...  You have been warned  I have them at 9-7. You can't HONESTLY think they will not play BETTER this year then last. So even though the schedule is tough, their improvement should help out. Due to the schedule, i think we may be in for more passing then last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 Heck, I think twice before I draft ANYBODY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delicious_bass Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 That's really the time to get a RB because he's going to be a workhorse. If the rookie QB is going to be throwing 30+ passes a game, then pass. Sometimes that is the case and it works out well. Sometimes it means the rb will be running face-first into a crowd of defenders and a lot of 3-and-outs, though, too... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted August 16, 2009 Author Share Posted August 16, 2009 I have them at 9-7. You can't HONESTLY think they will not play BETTER this year then last. So even though the schedule is tough, their improvement should help out. Due to the schedule, i think we may be in for more passing then last year. Yes, I can HONESTLY think they will NOT play BETTER this year then last. However, even if they do I think expecting Turner to repeat the season he had is expecting to much. 1400/10 would still be a great year yet it would be about a 72 point decrease or around 12.1 PPG which would be in the range of RB16/17...now 12.1 PPG isnt anything to sneeze at but that is a 26% decrease from last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 I still wouldn't pass on him at 1.12 or 2.1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 I still wouldn't pass on him at 1.12 or 2.1. Â Â I got him at 1.9 and think that's the ideal spot to draft him.... Â however...if Moss or Fitz were there, I might have drafted one of them... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 I still think he's worth a 1.6 to 1.9 in my leagues, which are 0.5PPR. Glad to see so many under value him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HutOne Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 The PPR assumption changes things up a bit, but since we are now talking about a host of WRs (such as Fitz, AJ, Moss, Calvin, Smith, Wayne, Jennings, White, Boldin, Bowe, Colston) that could realistically post the numbers you suggest above - I'd still consider Turner at 1.6 or 1.7 since there are so few non-RBBC RBs these days, and I just listed 11 WRs that fit your critera. In any event, I don't really expect Turner to be on the board by the time I pick in most/all of my leagues this year so likely won't be faced with the decision ... interesting academic exercise regardless. But if you pass on that type of production can you live with a lower tier back when more than likely you can get a Jennings , Bowe or Colston in the 2nd round instead of a team of lets say Fitzgerald and a back that might get you 800 yds and around 8 tds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 I think in PPRs he's actually being under-valued because people are so freaked out about his 6 catches last year. No he won't suddenly get a ton but I expect something more Peterson-like, say 15-20. Still not very good but no one seems to worry about it with Peterson. I guess they expect him to rush for 1700+ again. lol. Â You have to look at the total pts you expect to get from a player. So if even tho he likely won't score as many this year, his catches are likely to go up at least a little IMO. Still a top player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportsfreak475 Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 It's so tough to predict these types of things nowadays as teams somehow shift and often look completley different than they did the previous year, even if they have the same personnel. I say it all depends on who is on the board, I like him better than S. Jackson, I know that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingfish247 Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 Here's my insight as a Falcons homer, FWIW.... Â 1) Don't expect as many touches for Turner this year. Ryan will be expected to win a few games throwing 30+ times (Ryan only did this 6 times last year and ATL was 1-5 in those games... 1-6 if you include the playoff game). Turner was used more to take some pressure off Ryan. If you believe in addition by subtraction (of touches), then Turner is undervalued. If not, then Turner will fall back a bit. Â 2) Turner scored 14 of his 17 rushing TDs on goal to go. That's good but when you consider ATL was middle of the pack for red zone offense there's definitely room for improvement. Â 3) While 2 is true, Gonzo's value will be in the red zone. I expect 22+ TDs for Ryan solely from Gonzo's presence. Â 4) Given 1 through 3, this will be a much more balanced offense this year barring major injuries. More balance only really means one thing because 2008 was lopsided for the run... so it's probably less carries and less yards for Turner. More TDs to make up the difference is iffy mostly due to Gonzo's presence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LayLow Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 Usually when you pay for players that had career years the year before...they underperform Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 Only if you're stupid enough to expect another career year. I don't. But he can perform well under last year's levels and still be a top RB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LayLow Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 Only if you're stupid enough to expect another career year. I don't. But he can perform well under last year's levels and still be a top RB. if you are drafting turner @2 IMO, you are Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted August 17, 2009 Share Posted August 17, 2009 I probably wouldn't, but don't think it's so ridiculous as you seem to Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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