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Think twice before drafting Michael Turner


keggerz
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you do realize that if you buy a 12 pack of beer you will have twice as many beers as Turner had receptions last year....Turner and passing game should not be used in the same sentence unless it is to point out that he isn't involved in it.

 

I just might be wrong about ATL, it wouldn't be the first time but it is my opinion...I think everyone knows that I am big on stats and trends and a major trend is that the Falcons have never put together back to back winning seasons....even when they had that great QB Mike Vick under center :wacko:

 

you have to realize that they had a rookie QB and a new RB that never really worked on catching the ball....it's not like he can't do it....but Norwood was used more for that....

 

I would assume Turner to expand on that...

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is everyone here putting Forte over Turner in a PPR?

 

Absolutely. He outpointed him last year and I expect more of the same this year.

Edited by irish
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Made the mistake of passing on Turner last season. With a new coach, rookie QB, etc figured that Atlanta would have trouble moving the ball.

 

Really kinda hoping I dont have to make the call on him this year... :wacko:

 

That's really the time to get a RB because he's going to be a workhorse. If the rookie QB is going to be throwing 30+ passes a game, then pass.

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Falcons schedule:

Mia

Car

@ NE

@ SF

CHI

@ DAL

@ NO

Wash

@ Car

@ NYG

TB

PHL

NO

@ NYJ

Buff

@ TB

 

That is NOT an easy schedule or rushing schedule for that matter in any stretch of the imagination..and quite honestly, that is the major reason I am not so high on Turner.

 

here is some info from last years schedule for turner:

VS the common teams from above this is what Turner did vs them last year

 

8 games vs this years common opponents: 175 rushes/636 yard/3.6 YPC 7 TDs*

*4 of those were in ONE game vs Carolina...2 others were vs the Saints(1 in each game), 1 vs TB in his best game of those 8 games.

@TB: 14 for 42 3.0 YPC 0TDs

@CAR 18 for 56 3.1 YPC 0TDs

CHI 25 for 54 2.2 YPC 0TDs

@PHL 17 for 58 3.4 YPC 0TDs

NO 27 for 96 3.6 YPC 1TD

CAR 24 for 117 4.9 YPC 4TDs

@NO 18 for 61 3.4 YPC 1TD

TB 32 for 152 4.8 YPC 1TD

 

IMO, outside of 2 of those games Turner really struggled...does anyone really see a team on this years schedule where you can say that Turner will get 4 TDs against them? Surely no one thinks it will happen against CAR again...and this year as can be seen above his schedule isn't going to be a cake walk.

 

I say draft with caution because I think many that will be drafting Turner are doing so expecting a repeat of last years numbers and I think that is going to be a long hard row to hoe...and remember that Turner barely catches more passes then Reggie Bush averages rushing the football.

 

EDIT to add the following:

Rushing Stats while behind:

210 rushes

691 yards

3.3 YPC

but on a positive note he did score 10 of his 17 TDs while behind

 

oh and one last tidbit:

In the Falcons 5 losses

92 rushes

298 yards

3.2 YPC

3 TDs

 

I think the Falcons could realistically be looking at a 5 win season (split with Car & NO, sweep TB, Buff)...wouldnt surprise me to see them beat Wash in ATL and maybe win @ SF...I think 8 wins is their ceiling...

 

You have been warned :wacko:

 

I have them at 9-7. You can't HONESTLY think they will not play BETTER this year then last. So even though the schedule is tough, their improvement should help out. Due to the schedule, i think we may be in for more passing then last year.

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That's really the time to get a RB because he's going to be a workhorse. If the rookie QB is going to be throwing 30+ passes a game, then pass.

Sometimes that is the case and it works out well. Sometimes it means the rb will be running face-first into a crowd of defenders and a lot of 3-and-outs, though, too...

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I have them at 9-7. You can't HONESTLY think they will not play BETTER this year then last. So even though the schedule is tough, their improvement should help out. Due to the schedule, i think we may be in for more passing then last year.

Yes, I can HONESTLY think they will NOT play BETTER this year then last. However, even if they do I think expecting Turner to repeat the season he had is expecting to much. 1400/10 would still be a great year yet it would be about a 72 point decrease or around 12.1 PPG which would be in the range of RB16/17...now 12.1 PPG isnt anything to sneeze at but that is a 26% decrease from last year.

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The PPR assumption changes things up a bit, but since we are now talking about a host of WRs (such as Fitz, AJ, Moss, Calvin, Smith, Wayne, Jennings, White, Boldin, Bowe, Colston) that could realistically post the numbers you suggest above - I'd still consider Turner at 1.6 or 1.7 since there are so few non-RBBC RBs these days, and I just listed 11 WRs that fit your critera.

 

In any event, I don't really expect Turner to be on the board by the time I pick in most/all of my leagues this year so likely won't be faced with the decision ... interesting academic exercise regardless.

But if you pass on that type of production can you live with a lower tier back when more than likely you can get a Jennings , Bowe or Colston in the 2nd round instead of a team of lets say Fitzgerald and a back that might get you 800 yds and around 8 tds.

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I think in PPRs he's actually being under-valued because people are so freaked out about his 6 catches last year. No he won't suddenly get a ton but I expect something more Peterson-like, say 15-20. Still not very good but no one seems to worry about it with Peterson. I guess they expect him to rush for 1700+ again. lol.

 

You have to look at the total pts you expect to get from a player. So if even tho he likely won't score as many this year, his catches are likely to go up at least a little IMO. Still a top player.

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Here's my insight as a Falcons homer, FWIW....

 

1) Don't expect as many touches for Turner this year. Ryan will be expected to win a few games throwing 30+ times (Ryan only did this 6 times last year and ATL was 1-5 in those games... 1-6 if you include the playoff game). Turner was used more to take some pressure off Ryan. If you believe in addition by subtraction (of touches), then Turner is undervalued. If not, then Turner will fall back a bit.

 

2) Turner scored 14 of his 17 rushing TDs on goal to go. That's good but when you consider ATL was middle of the pack for red zone offense there's definitely room for improvement.

 

3) While 2 is true, Gonzo's value will be in the red zone. I expect 22+ TDs for Ryan solely from Gonzo's presence.

 

4) Given 1 through 3, this will be a much more balanced offense this year barring major injuries. More balance only really means one thing because 2008 was lopsided for the run... so it's probably less carries and less yards for Turner. More TDs to make up the difference is iffy mostly due to Gonzo's presence.

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