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Think twice before drafting Michael Turner


keggerz
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Here's my insight as a Falcons homer, FWIW....

 

1) Don't expect as many touches for Turner this year. Ryan will be expected to win a few games throwing 30+ times (Ryan only did this 6 times last year and ATL was 1-5 in those games... 1-6 if you include the playoff game). Turner was used more to take some pressure off Ryan. If you believe in addition by subtraction (of touches), then Turner is undervalued. If not, then Turner will fall back a bit.

 

2) Turner scored 14 of his 17 rushing TDs on goal to go. That's good but when you consider ATL was middle of the pack for red zone offense there's definitely room for improvement.

 

3) While 2 is true, Gonzo's value will be in the red zone. I expect 22+ TDs for Ryan solely from Gonzo's presence.

 

4) Given 1 through 3, this will be a much more balanced offense this year barring major injuries. More balance only really means one thing because 2008 was lopsided for the run... so it's probably less carries and less yards for Turner. More TDs to make up the difference is iffy mostly due to Gonzo's presence.

 

Kingfish, What's your yards and TD prediction for Turner this year?

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Kingfish, What's your yards and TD prediction for Turner this year?

I hate doing specific projections like that but I would project Ryan to pass more and the offense to run less, including Turner. By taking the most conservative look at the stats...

 

322 rush attempts

1384 yards

12 TDs

 

Still very good but again this is a very conservative look at how the pie will be sliced if you subscribe to my assumption and belief that ATL will strive for more balance on offense this season. I just threw this together as I don't personally do projections but for this I ran some numbers. If anyone cares, I'll be happy to post how I arrived at the above projected stats.

 

Certainly nothing to make anyone think twice. Those are pretty sweet numbers from a 1st round pick but I come from the camp, as some mentioned above, you don't chase career years expecting to get last year's output. So as far as the title of this thread, I agree insofar as long as people aren't expecting anything close to last year's output.

Edited by kingfish247
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Here's my insight as a Falcons homer, FWIW....

 

1) Don't expect as many touches for Turner this year. Ryan will be expected to win a few games throwing 30+ times (Ryan only did this 6 times last year and ATL was 1-5 in those games... 1-6 if you include the playoff game). Turner was used more to take some pressure off Ryan. If you believe in addition by subtraction (of touches), then Turner is undervalued. If not, then Turner will fall back a bit.

 

2) Turner scored 14 of his 17 rushing TDs on goal to go. That's good but when you consider ATL was middle of the pack for red zone offense there's definitely room for improvement.

 

3) While 2 is true, Gonzo's value will be in the red zone. I expect 22+ TDs for Ryan solely from Gonzo's presence.

 

4) Given 1 through 3, this will be a much more balanced offense this year barring major injuries. More balance only really means one thing because 2008 was lopsided for the run... so it's probably less carries and less yards for Turner. More TDs to make up the difference is iffy mostly due to Gonzo's presence.

 

Good info here to think about, but I wonder:

 

1. You think Ryan will need to have more games throwing the ball 30+ times, yet in those games last year he was 1-5.....something tells me the Falcons coaching staff will do anything possible not to be in a postion that they have to throw that much......that 1-5 stat tells me they still will be a run-first offense.

 

2 if they are much more balanced, and move the ball more efficiently and pick-up more 1st downs, won't that craete more opportunities for offensive plays? With more palys comes more rushes. with a solid target to pick up thos 3rd n 6 situations, I see them moving the ball in more dink-and-dunk fashion, rather than the quick strikes to White we saw a lot of last year. if they do this, and get inside the 20 more often than last, I think that helps Turner's numbers significantly. I don't see any reason to think his 17 TDs won't be matched or improved upon.

Edited by i_am_the_swammi
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1. You think Ryan will need to have more games throwing the ball 30+ times, yet in those games last year he was 1-5.....something tells me the Falcons coaching staff will do anything possible not to be in a postion that they have to throw that much......that 1-5 stat tells me they still will be a run-first offense.

Fair point but it shows a glaring weakness by ATL's offense last year. I don't mean to say they need to throw 30+ times to win a game and if they do so that that is a measure of success (or failure) of the offense and the team. I mean to say that while the offense was successful in '08 by running as much as they did and passing as little as they did... it's not sustainable or likely. We're talking about some slight changes (3 or 4 more pass attempts per game overall, 3 or 4 less rushes per game overall) that would balance the offense and make it more versatile and more resilient and less reliant on one guy (Turner). Also, assuming that Ryan, Mularkey, and Smith would like to improve upon last year... they'll want to win those 6 or 7 games.

 

2 if they are much more balanced, and move the ball more efficiently and pick-up more 1st downs, won't that craete more opportunities for offensive plays? With more palys comes more rushes. with a solid target to pick up thos 3rd n 6 situations, I see them moving the ball in more dink-and-dunk fashion, rather than the quick strikes to White we saw a lot of last year. if they do this, and get inside the 20 more often than last, I think that helps Turner's numbers significantly. I don't see any reason to think his 17 TDs won't be matched or improved upon.

Also a fair point, but again in a more balanced offense, Ryan is likely to crack 20/21 TDs. Remember, he only threw 16 TDs so for a 2nd year QB of Ryan's exhibited talent an extra 4 or 5 TDs is not uncalled for or unlikely. So, ATL's offense was pretty good at scoring points last year (10th overall with 24.4 ppg). I would assume, based on personnel and the system, they'll likely stay pretty much right at that average. It's an above average scoring offense.

 

So assuming their scoring offense stays pretty much the same (which is pretty damn good), those extra passing TDs will have to come from somewhere. That somewhere is probably Turner's TD total. Those TDs are likely to be from Gonzo but also could very well come from any combination of any of the receivers.

 

I personally think Gonzo's presence alone is worth 4 or 5 more TDs when they get inside the 20. Those are TDs that likely would have gone to Turner.

 

Also, this is some very conservative thinking on my part. Keggerz brought up some valid overall points about the outlook for ATL's season. On paper it is a tougher schedule this year. I didn't even address a tougher schedule in my projections. I didn't even address the very slim chance, for example, that Turner again scores 7 TDs in the NFC South. Or the slim chance that he again has two games where he scores 3 or more TDs.

Edited by kingfish247
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Sorry for multiple posts, but as I read through this thread I picked up on something else... one or two people commented about ATL playing from behind. I think this will happen a lot this season. At least more than last season.

 

As it stands now, ATL's defense is only returning about half its starters from '08. Even the '08 defense played a little over their heads. This year they're starting almost from scratch. Milloy and Grady Jackson being the big losses. Milloy was all over the field and Jackson was immovable. If you can, watch the first offensive series for the Lions to get an idea of what's in store for ATL's defense this season. It was only Culpepper's and the Lions' general ineptitude that kept them out of the end zone.

 

If those new starters struggle or if a few inevitable injuries start to pop up... ATL is certain to be playing from behind. A lot. That's another reason not to expect Turner to be as involved as last year nor be as effective... Turner averaged 3.4 ypc when ATL was trailing in a game. Turner's involvement in the pass game is non-existent.

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Fair point but it shows a glaring weakness by ATL's offense last year. I don't mean to say they need to throw 30+ times to win a game and if they do so that that is a measure of success (or failure) of the offense and the team. I mean to say that while the offense was successful in '08 by running as much as they did and passing as little as they did... it's not sustainable or likely. We're talking about some slight changes (3 or 4 more pass attempts per game overall, 3 or 4 less rushes per game overall) that would balance the offense and make it more versatile and more resilient and less reliant on one guy (Turner). Also, assuming that Ryan, Mularkey, and Smith would like to improve upon last year... they'll want to win those 6 or 7 games.

 

You certainly know your team better than I, but I would think that Ryan is a more seasoned QB, and I expect him to be btter. i also expect the presence of a veteran outlet like Gonzo to make him better. Thus, as I said earleir, I see them sustaining drives to a much greater degree than last eyar. Less quick-strike, more time-eating 12-15 play drives.

 

And I think that's where Ryan will get those extra passes from.....not because Turner will be losing touches, but because the offense is better and will run a larger number of plays (which will naturally increase Ryans pass attempts).

 

Also a fair point, but again in a more balanced offense, Ryan is likely to crack 20/21 TDs. Remember, he only threw 16 TDs so for a 2nd year QB of Ryan's exhibited talent an extra 4 or 5 TDs is not uncalled for or unlikely. So, ATL's offense was pretty good at scoring points last year (10th overall with 24.4 ppg). I would assume, based on personnel and the system, they'll likely stay pretty much right at that average. It's an above average scoring offense.

 

So assuming their scoring offense stays pretty much the same (which is pretty damn good), those extra passing TDs will have to come from somewhere. That somewhere is probably Turner's TD total. Those TDs are likely to be from Gonzo but also could very well come from any combination of any of the receivers.

 

I personally think Gonzo's presence alone is worth 4 or 5 more TDs when they get inside the 20. Those are TDs that likely would have gone to Turner.

 

Also, this is some very conservative thinking on my part. Keggerz brought up some valid overall points about the outlook for ATL's season. On paper it is a tougher schedule this year. I didn't even address a tougher schedule in my projections. I didn't even address the very slim chance, for example, that Turner again scores 7 TDs in the NFC South. Or the slim chance that he again has two games where he scores 3 or more TDs.

 

If they were the 10th best offense last year.....and Ryan is expected to improve upon his rookie campaign....and a stud like Gonzo is present to take some presure of the wideouts in passing situations....and they are a more balanced and efficient offense......wouldn't it be expected that they would improve upon that #10 ranking? I also see ryan throwing 5-7 more TDs, but not at the significant expense of the rushing game.

 

1550/125/16 TDs is where I have Turner projected....

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Sorry for multiple posts, but as I read through this thread I picked up on something else... one or two people commented about ATL playing from behind. I think this will happen a lot this season. At least more than last season.

 

As it stands now, ATL's defense is only returning about half its starters from '08. Even the '08 defense played a little over their heads. This year they're starting almost from scratch. Milloy and Grady Jackson being the big losses. Milloy was all over the field and Jackson was immovable. If you can, watch the first offensive series for the Lions to get an idea of what's in store for ATL's defense this season. It was only Culpepper's and the Lions' general ineptitude that kept them out of the end zone.

 

If those new starters struggle or if a few inevitable injuries start to pop up... ATL is certain to be playing from behind. A lot. That's another reason not to expect Turner to be as involved as last year nor be as effective... Turner averaged 3.4 ypc when ATL was trailing in a game. Turner's involvement in the pass game is non-existent.

 

See, I think the change in the defense is actually a good thing. ATL had a deceptively bad defense last year. They were 24th in total D, 21st against the pass and 25th against the run. Milloy will be missed, but I think Grady Jackson and Keith Brooking are both addition by subtraction. I also think Grimes is a future star at the right CB position.

 

I'm on record as saying I probably won't get Turner this year because I don't think I'll be willing to pay what other's will. I also don't think he'll be any more involved in the passing game than he was last year. Why would he be when you want him for first and second-down runs and Norwood is very capable in that third-down role? I think the whole offense will be better, more balanced, but I think that means decreased production from Turner. I think White probably has the same numbers on fewer receptions because I think Gonzo will make it so teams can't try to blanket him. And I think Ryan just gets better. More experience will help this kid. He will make even better decisions and spread the ball a little more. I really like the Falcons this year. I think overall they're the best team in that division. NO might be better offensively (a little) but their D still doesn't look to be all that great. :wacko: Of course if I could see the future I'd be retired from all the money I'd have won in Vegas, so... :D

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...Thus, as I said earleir, I see them sustaining drives to a much greater degree than last eyar. Less quick-strike, more time-eating 12-15 play drives.

 

And I think that's where Ryan will get those extra passes from.....not because Turner will be losing touches, but because the offense is better and will run a larger number of plays (which will naturally increase Ryans pass attempts).

This kind of proves my point. They didn't have much trouble sustaining drives last year. They had 1,011 offensive plays which was near the median. The most last season was 1,095. They were tied for 5th in the league for 3rd down conversions.

 

I was being conservative by saying I don't see much improvement in the overall outcomes... ppg, total plays, 3rd down etc. Those outcomes were very good. It's unlikely they can improve on all of them at once because they are all above average outcomes. ATL could take the next step to becoming an elite offense this season. The ingredients are there. They were already in the top 3rd of the league in offense last year. However, improvement becomes more difficult when you're already that good. I'm just saying I think the outcome will be about the same but there will be a leveling out of the pass:run ratio.

 

wouldn't it be expected that they would improve upon that #10 ranking?

Ahhh, expectations and reality shouldn't be confused. One would expect every team to improve over time but to assume as much isn't the way the NFL works. There are setbacks. There are stats or seasons that are outliers for the average. There are personal seasons that are outliers for the average. In 2008, Turner and the ATL rushing game, I believe, was an outlier. They ran a lot. Turner especially ran a lot. I don't think that same Turner success can be, or will be, duplicated this season for the reasons that I've already stated.

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See, I think the change in the defense is actually a good thing. ATL had a deceptively bad defense last year. They were 24th in total D, 21st against the pass and 25th against the run. Milloy will be missed, but I think Grady Jackson and Keith Brooking are both addition by subtraction. I also think Grimes is a future star at the right CB position.

While I agree on Brooking, this remains to be seen. There are a lot of new guys taking on new and bigger roles. They could all improve the defense but I'll believe it when I see it and what I've seen so far from ATL's 1st team D is not at an improvement over last season.

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  • 5 weeks later...

It's only week 1 but consider what ATL did on offense...

 

Turner had 2 red zone rushes.

Gonzo had 3 red zone targets.

White had 2.

Ryan missed Norwood on a red zone target for what would have been a TD.

White/Gonzo/Norwood combined for 25 targets.

Turner only had 2 red zone carries.

 

I think going forward this is how ATL's offense will look... teams loading up to stop Turner and forcing Ryan to make plays. It's a crap sandwich for opposing Ds because Ryan and White/Gonzo/Norwood are pretty good but the cat is out of the bag on what Turner can do.

 

There's not many guys you start over Turner, if any, but it's time to temper expectations.

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Oh, sorry. I forgot we should wait a month into the season to look at how an offense looks and who is doing what.

And if the passing is successful in the redzone don't you think they will load up with DB's slowing that down which will allow Turner to pound it in? That offense is loaded with weapons, maybe last week they felt like the best solution was to throw it more. It might even depend on what defense they play that will determine how many touches Turner gets in the red zone. What a thought. :wacko:

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And if the passing is successful in the redzone don't you think they will load up with DB's slowing that down which will allow Turner to pound it in? That offense is loaded with weapons, maybe last week they felt like the best solution was to throw it more. It might even depend on what defense they play that will determine how many touches Turner gets in the red zone. What a thought. :wacko:

Breaking News: "Offense takes what opposing defense give them"... that's my point and the point of many who don't think Turner will approach last year's production. Defenses probably won't give room for Turner to run. I think teams, on balance, would rather take their chances with Ryan than let Turner run roughshod all over them. I also think, and people will see and so far ATL has shown, Ryan throwing more in general and that that will also eat into Turner's numbers. At the very least Gonzo's presence alone has done as much.

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so far ATL has shown, Ryan throwing more in general and that that will also eat into Turner's numbers. At the very least Gonzo's presence alone has done as much.

Awesome news! After one game Atlanta is going to throw 30% more the rest of the season therefore Turner will have 30% less production. Great thanks for all the facts!

 

Oh wait, it's only an opinion based on one game. I forgot.

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Awesome news! After one game Atlanta is going to throw 30% more the rest of the season therefore Turner will have 30% less production. Great thanks for all the facts!

 

Oh wait, it's only an opinion based on one game. I forgot.

 

I hope it's true though. I have Ryan and the bloke who beat me last year on the SB has Turner..... Would make my day, for sure!!

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Breaking News: "Offense takes what opposing defense give them"... that's my point and the point of many who don't think Turner will approach last year's production. Defenses probably won't give room for Turner to run. I think teams, on balance, would rather take their chances with Ryan than let Turner run roughshod all over them. I also think, and people will see and so far ATL has shown, Ryan throwing more in general and that that will also eat into Turner's numbers. At the very least Gonzo's presence alone has done as much.

I believe you have called this one correctly. After watching again this week, it appears that they will be opening up the O a ton and Turner looks to definitely suffer. I was hoping you were wrong but this looks to be a trend for sure.

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Yup. Everyone expects them to zig (run heavy) and they zagged (pass alot more). Still, with the amount of times they are gonna be in the redzone, he will still get his 1 yard scores

 

Winner winner.

 

I see a ton of games for Turner like yesterday.....110-130 yards, 1-2 TDs. And he hasn't even snapped off a long one yet.

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Winner winner.

 

I see a ton of games for Turner like yesterday.....110-130 yards, 1-2 TDs. And he hasn't even snapped off a long one yet.

I think your right. The only point was that he probably won't get as many carries inside the red zone as last year. It just looks like Ryan is going to open things up a little more than in the past.

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Good grief. His touches are exactly in line with last year, so the lack of opportunity argument falls very flat with me. He faced a tough Miami defense and did pretty much as expected vs Carolina. This production looks a lot like last year to me.

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