Think twice before drafting Michael Turner

[LayLow]

so you have to be a hater to point out something that you think should be a warning about drafting a player for the year/....emphasis on YEAR as I didnt say GAME....22-97 3 is a very very nice game but look a bit deeper at the numbers and imo there is still reason to be concerned and I dont think that by years end Turner will not live up to the top 3-5 that he was being drafted in...

 

22-97 3 4.41 YPC

1 run 33 yards

1 run 1yard TD

1 run 3 yard TD

lose those 3 carries and you end up with 19-60 3.16 YPC

the reason I pulled the 2 TD runs is because they couldnt be any longer....and I am sorry but 3.16 isnt a YPC that is going to make me feel all warm and fuzzy and if you expect you are gonna get multiple TDs for the majority of the remaining weeks you aren't being very realistic in your expectations

I didn't mean you. Testie aren't we...

[WaterMan]

Turner continues his TD streak against the Bear's D.

[The Irish Doggy]

Turner continues his TD streak against the Bear's D.

 

 

To be fair, his yardage continues to be down. He's gonna need a couple big games to get back above 1500 yards at this point. To your point however, at least he is still a TD machine.

[kingfish247]

If Norwood misses more time, it could help Turner's yardage and especially any PPR owners. After Norwood left the game, Turner was much more involved in the passing game.

 

Snelling's role is a bit murky. He can fill-in for Turner or Norwood. If for whatever reason they don't like Snelling to pick up all of Norwood's slack, Turner could snag himself 3 or 4 catches per game.

 

Turner is on pace for just under 1300 total yards. He's on pace for a similar TD total as last year. He's just cracking top 10 in non-PPR, and he's top 15 in PPR. You could've done much worse with a top 10 pick so far (Forte, LT, Gore) but, and this has always been the point of this thread, Turner is off his pace from last year.

[Medal of Honor]

Can we just let this topic die now instead of resurrecting it from page 5 every week? Nobody cares that he's not going to have 1700 yards again this year. He's been better than a handful of the top-10 picks. Go make Gore or LT threads and update those every week. This thread is called "Think twice before drafting Michael Turner." I think it's safe to say we've all drafted our teams at this point, so this thread is radically off-topic.

 

Big John can we get this closed or something?

[kingfish247]

...

Big John can we get this closed or something?

Sounds good to me, but it seems idiotic to start a new thread with bits of info like this...

If Norwood misses more time, it could help Turner's yardage and especially any PPR owners. After Norwood left the game, Turner was much more involved in the passing game.

 

Snelling's role is a bit murky. He can fill-in for Turner or Norwood. If for whatever reason they don't like Snelling to pick up all of Norwood's slack, Turner could snag himself 3 or 4 catches per game.

I'm not a Turner owner. Nor am I looking to pull a trade for him. But this bit of info might be useful to some.

[LayLow]

Just like keggerz said, teams will load up to stop turner and the schedule is tough. he will STILL score but won't accomplish what he did last year. The topic should have been "Think twice about picking turner as a top 3 pick"

 

However...he said "I see the Falcons as a 4 win team maximum 8 win team"....way off there man

Edited October 19, 2009 by LayLow

[alexgaddis]

I got Turner in the second round of my draft last night....

[keggerz]

Just like keggerz said, teams will load up to stop turner and the schedule is tough. he will STILL score but won't accomplish what he did last year. The topic should have been "Think twice about picking turner as a top 3 pick"

 

However...he said "I see the Falcons as a 4 win team maximum 8 win team"....way off there man

 

I hate it when people twist or misquote what i write/say:

 

I said I could see the Falcons could "realistically be looking at a 5 win season (split with Car & NO, sweep TB, Buff)...wouldnt surprise me to see them beat Wash in ATL and maybe win @ SF...I think 8 wins is their ceiling..." and that was NOT my main point on why to be cautious with Turner...but it was a reason to show concern.....my MAIN reason was because I thought they would be facing a tough rushing schedule...continue to read on and you see where I said" I think many that will be drafting Turner are doing so expecting a repeat of last years numbers and I think that is going to be a long hard row to hoe"

 

I also mentioned how few passes that Turner catches...and I did go on to clarify in another post in this thread that I was speaking with regards to PPR

 

I also said I thought he would put up close to 300 carries (as opposed to 370+) around 1200 yards with 10 TDs and a 3.9 YPC

 

Well so far he is on pace for 320 carries for 1196.8 yrds with 19.2 TDs and a 3.5 YPC

so far I was wrong about the TDs

 

as far as the rest of their schedule goes I still think they have a tough road to hoe and can see it limiting Turners production...and just because they are currently 4-1 doesn't mean that they cant still end up at 8-8

IMO, I can see the Falcons very possibly losing the games in RED

 

@ DAL

@ NO

Wash

@ Car

@ NYG

TB

PHL

NO

@ NYJ

Buff

@ TB

 

That would be 6 more loses and with just one more loss they would finish 8-8....some thoughts: Cowboys don't look to tough this year but coming off a bye and in Dallas I like the Cowboys...NO has shown they are for real and will not be an easy win either on the road or at home....The GMen are still one of the top teams in the NFL and with the game in the Meadow Lands I give the nod to the Gmen....Phl just lost to the Raiders but I still see them as a better team than the Falcons...could I be wrong? Sure and maybe the edge should go to the Falcons being it is a home game but still one they very well could lose....traveling to face the Jets late in the season will not be an easy game for a dome team.....if all those end up losses they have to put away those teams they should put away to get to 9-7...remember that would make this the first time in their entire history that they put together back to back winning seasons, EVER.

 

 

Falcons schedule:

Mia

Car

@ NE

@ SF

CHI

@ DAL

@ NO

Wash

@ Car

@ NYG

TB

PHL

NO

@ NYJ

Buff

@ TB

 

That is NOT an easy schedule or rushing schedule for that matter in any stretch of the imagination..and quite honestly, that is the major reason I am not so high on Turner.

 

here is some info from last years schedule for turner:

VS the common teams from above this is what Turner did vs them last year

 

8 games vs this years common opponents: 175 rushes/636 yard/3.6 YPC 7 TDs*

*4 of those were in ONE game vs Carolina...2 others were vs the Saints(1 in each game), 1 vs TB in his best game of those 8 games.

@TB: 14 for 42 3.0 YPC 0TDs

@CAR 18 for 56 3.1 YPC 0TDs

CHI 25 for 54 2.2 YPC 0TDs

@PHL 17 for 58 3.4 YPC 0TDs

NO 27 for 96 3.6 YPC 1TD

CAR 24 for 117 4.9 YPC 4TDs

@NO 18 for 61 3.4 YPC 1TD

TB 32 for 152 4.8 YPC 1TD

 

IMO, outside of 2 of those games Turner really struggled...does anyone really see a team on this years schedule where you can say that Turner will get 4 TDs against them? Surely no one thinks it will happen against CAR again...and this year as can be seen above his schedule isn't going to be a cake walk.

 

I say draft with caution because I think many that will be drafting Turner are doing so expecting a repeat of last years numbers and I think that is going to be a long hard row to hoe...and remember that Turner barely catches more passes then Reggie Bush averages rushing the football.

 

EDIT to add the following:

Rushing Stats while behind:

210 rushes

691 yards

3.3 YPC

but on a positive note he did score 10 of his 17 TDs while behind

 

oh and one last tidbit:

In the Falcons 5 losses

92 rushes

298 yards

3.2 YPC

3 TDs

 

I think the Falcons could realistically be looking at a 5 win season (split with Car & NO, sweep TB, Buff)...wouldnt surprise me to see them beat Wash in ATL and maybe win @ SF...I think 8 wins is their ceiling...

 

You have been warned

 

see but I think 350+ carries is going to be hard to reach considering I think they will be playing from behind much more....I think he could end up closer to 300 attempts at 3.9 with 10 TDs...so that is around 1200 yards and 10 TDs...to me in a PPR league I have no problem passing on that type of production for a WR that will be in the 1100-1200 yard area (minimally) with 8-10 TDs and 80+ catches...

 

and as always...it is a 16 game schedule so there is plenty of time left in the season...but I will say that week 16 and 17 look to be juicy matchups for Turner owners

Edited October 19, 2009 by keggerz

[kingfish247]

On the theme of teams that ATL faces coming off byes... they just played CHI. keggerz mentioned DAL this week. They also get WAS and NYG after their respective byes.

[LayLow]

I hate it when people twist or misquote what i write/say:

 

I said I could see the Falcons could "realistically be looking at a 5 win season (split with Car & NO, sweep TB, Buff)...wouldnt surprise me to see them beat Wash in ATL and maybe win @ SF...I think 8 wins is their ceiling..." and that was NOT my main point on why to be cautious with Turner...but it was a reason to show concern.....my MAIN reason was because I thought they would be facing a tough rushing schedule...continue to read on and you see where I said" I think many that will be drafting Turner are doing so expecting a repeat of last years numbers and I think that is going to be a long hard row to hoe"

 

I also mentioned how few passes that Turner catches...and I did go on to clarify in another post in this thread that I was speaking with regards to PPR

 

I also said I thought he would put up close to 300 carries (as opposed to 370+) around 1200 yards with 10 TDs and a 3.9 YPC

 

Well so far he is on pace for 320 carries for 1196.8 yrds with 19.2 TDs and a 3.5 YPC

so far I was wrong about the TDs

 

as far as the rest of their schedule goes I still think they have a tough road to hoe and can see it limiting Turners production...and just because they are currently 4-1 doesn't mean that they cant still end up at 8-8

IMO, I can see the Falcons very possibly losing the games in RED

 

@ DAL

@ NO

Wash

@ Car

@ NYG

TB

PHL

NO

@ NYJ

Buff

@ TB

 

That would be 6 more loses and with just one more loss they would finish 8-8....some thoughts: Cowboys don't look to tough this year but coming off a bye and in Dallas I like the Cowboys...NO has shown they are for real and will not be an easy win either on the road or at home....The GMen are still one of the top teams in the NFL and with the game in the Meadow Lands I give the nod to the Gmen....Phl just lost to the Raiders but I still see them as a better team than the Falcons...could I be wrong? Sure and maybe the edge should go to the Falcons being it is a home game but still one they very well could lose....traveling to face the Jets late in the season will not be an easy game for a dome team.....if all those end up losses they have to put away those teams they should put away to get to 9-7...remember that would make this the first time in their entire history that they put together back to back winning seasons, EVER.

 

 

 

 

 

 

and as always...it is a 16 game schedule so there is plenty of time left in the season...but I will say that week 16 and 17 look to be juicy matchups for Turner owners

I wasn't twisting anything...whatever though, I could care less. Barring major injury, we will AT LEAST get 9-10 wins

[keggerz]

I wasn't twisting anything...whatever though, I could care less. Barring major injury, we will AT LEAST get 9-10 wins

I said I hate it when people twist or misquote what I write or say...you MISQUOTED me.

[i_am_the_swammi]

After Week 8:

 

720 yards, 156 attempts, 4.6 YPC 10 TDs

35 yards, 5 receptions

 

total: 755 yards, 10 TDs.

 

projected over 16 games: 322 touches, 1510 total yards, 20 TDs, 4.68 yards per touch, 10 receptions = 281 fantasy points

 

2008: 383 touches, 1740 yards, 17 TDs, 4.54 yards per touch, 6 receptions = 282 fantasy points

 

 

and he still gets TB twice, Carolina, the Ginas & Bufalo over his next 8 games....

[Sleeping King]

Over the past two weeks in my league (.4 ppr) he has moved from RB12 to RB6 and improved his YPC from 3.42 to 4.70. At this point I don't see a bad match up on the schedule. @CAR, @NYG, TB, PHI, NO, @NYJ, BUF.

 

A few weeks ago the NYG, NO and NYJ looked daunting but not now. He should have no problem finishing as a top 5 RB.

Edited November 9, 2009 by Sleeping King

[LayLow]

And we are still on pace for about 10 wins

 

5-3 now

 

Games left

 

@Car Win

@NYG Loss

TB Win

PHIL Win (home game...could be a loss here)

NO Win (home game)

@NYJ Win (could be tough though)

Bills Win

@TB WIn

[The Irish Doggy]

Nice pair of games to get back on track there.

[giantsfan]

I think they win 10.

 

As for Turner, he is a top 5 RB PPR or not period. He'll get 18 or so TD's. 1500 or so yards. And that is in what most people considered a bad season until the past two weeks. After AP, MJD, and CJ he would be my next pick.

 

What I think has been a downer is Ryan this year. He really hasn't stepped up to that next level like everyone thought has he?

Edited November 9, 2009 by giantsfan

[bushwacked]

As for Turner, he is a top 5 RB PPR or not period.

 

He's boderline top 10 in PPR leagues and was still being over-drafted in those formats. In WCOFF scoring he was the #13 RB going into this week. Deangelo Williams, Adrian Peterson, and Cedric Benson are amongst the "non-catching" backs that are still performing as well or better than Turner.

[giantsfan]

He's boderline top 10 in PPR leagues and was still being over-drafted in those formats. In WCOFF scoring he was the #13 RB going into this week. Deangelo Williams, Adrian Peterson, and Cedric Benson are amongst the "non-catching" backs that are still performing as well or better than Turner.

We get .5 PPR in my league and and he is # 5 right now.

 

Ahead of Benson and DWill.

 

And I think his best is yet to come considering his schedule.

[i_am_the_swammi]

He's boderline top 10 in PPR leagues and was still being over-drafted in those formats. In WCOFF scoring he was the #13 RB going into this week. Deangelo Williams, Adrian Peterson, and Cedric Benson are amongst the "non-catching" backs that are still performing as well or better than Turner.

 

After a low start, he's currently #7 right now in our BoTH league.

 

.1 point per yard, 1 point per reception, 6 pts per TD.

 

And it does appear the easier part of his schedule is ahead of him. I'd be surprised if his upward trend from the last few weeks doesn't continue going forward, especially if Ryan's passing continues to be a liability and they lean more and more on Turner. I'm sure they know he's on pace for 50+ less touches than last year, and likely can use him even more over the 2nd half of the season.

[giantsfan]

After a low start, he's currently #7 right now in our BoTH league.

 

.1 point per yard, 1 point per reception, 6 pts per TD.

 

And it does appear the easier part of his schedule is ahead of him. I'd be surprised if his upward trend from the last few weeks doesn't continue going forward, especially if Ryan's passing continues to be a liability and they lean more and more on Turner. I'm sure they know he's on pace for 50+ less touches than last year, and likely can use him even more over the 2nd half of the season.

Good call. # 7 in a 1 PPR league. # 5 in a .5 PPR league.

 

Best is yet to come (ON PAPER). Should be top 5 by seasons end in any format I think. Barring injury or something else unforeseen.

[kingfish247]

Serve me up half of my humble pie. The last two weeks have been nice and the rushing schedule certainly looks favorable. I think Ryan's little funk and regression certainly has to do with the resurgence. Or teams focusing on Ryan and the passing game which is now opening things up for Turner.

 

[WaterMan]

Turner is averaging 4.6 yards a carry and is still scoring TDs.

[Big Ernie McCracken]

Falcons schedule:

Mia

Car

@ NE

@ SF

CHI

@ DAL

@ NO

Wash

@ Car

@ NYG

TB

PHL

NO

@ NYJ

Buff

@ TB

 

That is NOT an easy schedule or rushing schedule for that matter in any stretch of the imagination..and quite honestly, that is the major reason I am not so high on Turner.

 

here is some info from last years schedule for turner:

VS the common teams from above this is what Turner did vs them last year

 

8 games vs this years common opponents: 175 rushes/636 yard/3.6 YPC 7 TDs*

*4 of those were in ONE game vs Carolina...2 others were vs the Saints(1 in each game), 1 vs TB in his best game of those 8 games.

@TB: 14 for 42 3.0 YPC 0TDs

@CAR 18 for 56 3.1 YPC 0TDs

CHI 25 for 54 2.2 YPC 0TDs

@PHL 17 for 58 3.4 YPC 0TDs

NO 27 for 96 3.6 YPC 1TD

CAR 24 for 117 4.9 YPC 4TDs

@NO 18 for 61 3.4 YPC 1TD

TB 32 for 152 4.8 YPC 1TD

 

IMO, outside of 2 of those games Turner really struggled...does anyone really see a team on this years schedule where you can say that Turner will get 4 TDs against them? Surely no one thinks it will happen against CAR again...and this year as can be seen above his schedule isn't going to be a cake walk.

 

I say draft with caution because I think many that will be drafting Turner are doing so expecting a repeat of last years numbers and I think that is going to be a long hard row to hoe...and remember that Turner barely catches more passes then Reggie Bush averages rushing the football.

 

EDIT to add the following:

Rushing Stats while behind:

210 rushes

691 yards

3.3 YPC

but on a positive note he did score 10 of his 17 TDs while behind

 

oh and one last tidbit:

In the Falcons 5 losses

92 rushes

298 yards

3.2 YPC

3 TDs

 

I think the Falcons could realistically be looking at a 5 win season (split with Car & NO, sweep TB, Buff)...wouldnt surprise me to see them beat Wash in ATL and maybe win @ SF...I think 8 wins is their ceiling...

 

You have been warned

 

 

I was looking for the part of this post where you mentioned the PPR format but couldn't find it. Much like your prediction of top 10 numbers from Portis, it seems like you've missed the mark and have a hard time admitting it.

[hooknladder]

I was looking for the part of this post where you mentioned the PPR format but couldn't find it. Much like your prediction of top 10 numbers from Portis, it seems like you've missed the mark and have a hard time admitting it.

 

 

he's not even on pace for 1000yds and 2 TD's (Portis)....-considering he'll probaby miss his next game. -total bust.

 

 

 

Nobody move! -this is a hijacking