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ADP and My Bad Draft


BOARHOGZ
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No doubt that ADP is a useful tool. This thread is in no way intended to say it should be ignored. However, it seems that last year I placed such a heavy focus on ADP and as I was waiting around letting players slip to their "ADP", they were snatched up before I could grab them. I feel like I placed way too much emphasis on trying to win the ADP battle versus just drafting and missed out on players I actually WANTED.

I'm thinking about just plain ignoring the ADP this year and looking and focusing more on DD's tiering philosophy. If I pick a guy at 3.08 who has a ADP of 4.10.....so what.

 

 

Thoughts on how you use ADP in your draft and if anyone else has the same experience. Muchas Gracias.

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Yeah, just use ADP to get a general idea of when guys are being drafted, but be ready to take the guy you want when you're on the clock, even if you're picking him higher than his ADP. After the first couple rounds, it can help you see if anyone seems to be slipping, but even then, picking a guy just because it's past his ADP is the wrong reason to take him too. It's just one of the things to consider when you are trying to answer the question "do I think ________ will still be there when my next pick comes around"?

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No doubt that ADP is a useful tool. This thread is in no way intended to say it should be ignored. However, it seems that last year I placed such a heavy focus on ADP and as I was waiting around letting players slip to their "ADP", they were snatched up before I could grab them. I feel like I placed way too much emphasis on trying to win the ADP battle versus just drafting and missed out on players I actually WANTED.

I'm thinking about just plain ignoring the ADP this year and looking and focusing more on DD's tiering philosophy. If I pick a guy at 3.08 who has a ADP of 4.10.....so what.

 

 

Thoughts on how you use ADP in your draft and if anyone else has the same experience. Muchas Gracias.

 

I use ADP to get an idea about where people are going. Remember this is an average of drafts using many different scoring systems.

I don't go by ADP, I look at drafting trends. RB's go early and often, usually QB's don't start going until round 3. WR's go late 1st early 2nd. Usually 18-20 RB's out of the 1st 24 picks. Way different than the ADP. Just use your best guess and trust your gut feeling.

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You don't draft using ADP, you draft using value. ADP is a tool to use to determine when players may go in your draft - then decide which players exceed the position that you will draft them in value and try to wait as long as you consider feasibly possible to pick them in part by watching their ADP (as well as watching other owner's rosters and tendencies).

 

My bill will be in the mail.

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ADP, cheat sheets, past stats... I use them all as a guideline as to who has been taken, what players/positions are value to me when my pick is up and as a prediction tool in determining where the draft may be flowing. Throw in a little pre-draft/draft time research & make your own opinion if you think the player should be above or below the average and the time is right to make a reach or let the player slide. Making those choice decisions are what makes or breaks your draft just as much as the players you actually get.

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I find when i did less research I drafted better.There was less confusion and anxiety build up to not make a mistake. Now its overload and constant changing in my drafting patterns because of this adp list. If its your turn and a stud is sitting there.....take him and enjoy!!!

 

 

 

Why does the word stud....take him and enjoy not sound too good!!!!!

Edited by ajfalcone
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Do they have something similar to auctions, where the average % of cap taken on a player?

 

This would be nice, but with the collapse of fantasyauctioneer, I don;t know of any site running a good number of online auctions (mock or real) where this could be compiled and provided, but, for those sites like MDC that do ADP reports, this would be a good idea. I just wonder with auctions still being a relatively small percentage of overall leagues if there is:

A. Enough demand for a service like this (particularly mock auctions, as those would be very involved as oppossed to mock drafts)

B. Enough use to come up with averages with a reasonable confidence level

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Using ADP to make sure you don't take a player in round 3 that typically goes in rounds 7-8 can be useful. On the other side it is also helpful to suggest players you should consider later in the draft. If someone with a 4th round ADP is there in the 6th then perhaps consider that a value (along with other factors) that you should think about.

 

Not taking a player you want in the 3rd round because they have a 4th round ADP is very dangerous. If anything, for a player you REALLY want, you should target them a round or 2 before their ADP to make sure you get them v/s worrying about overpaying.

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Using ADP to make sure you don't take a player in round 3 that typically goes in rounds 7-8 can be useful. On the other side it is also helpful to suggest players you should consider later in the draft. If someone with a 4th round ADP is there in the 6th then perhaps consider that a value (along with other factors) that you should think about.

 

Not taking a player you want in the 3rd round because they have a 4th round ADP is very dangerous. If anything, for a player you REALLY want, you should target them a round or 2 before their ADP to make sure you get them v/s worrying about overpaying.

 

 

Agree. I guess abandoning ADP altogether = Bad. I will approach this as taking my tiered approach in rounds 1-3/4, then look to ADP after that, where it seems the real VALUE decisions need to me made...in my opinion. Besides, the overload freaks me out at times.

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Fram a great book I read once called Fantasy Football: The Next Level:

 

The Average Draft Position maximizes the bad. One of the most beloved tools by many fantasy football fans is the averaging of mock drafts, real drafts and even rankings from multiple sources. As we have seen, unless the drafts were very recent, there is variation in each that is smoothed when averaged. Those changes which caused the movement of where individual players were taken are mixed in with any drafts from a time previous to the change so important movement becomes hidden by averaging a number of drafts.

 

Unless the scoring and starting rules were exactly the same between all drafts – high unlikely – it also washes out the differences that exist when there are significant rule variations from draft to draft. For some like reception points, it can change not only how positions are drafted relative to each other but also changes where individual players are taken because their value goes up or down in relation to the change in scoring.

 

Just as significant, mock drafts contain a lot of player choices that would not be made in a real draft as mock drafters try different strategies or try to cloak what they really want. Fantasy team owners that rely on mock drafts to get the average draft position for players (which can then be turned into an average set of rankings) will most likely draft an average team that has an average season. Too often averaging mocks and even real drafts is just a way to wash out the best information and set yourself up for missing players because there will always be someone in your league that wants each coveted player more than the average person.

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