Jump to content

What happens when you draft Witten and Gates


Thews40
 Share

Recommended Posts

One of the best ways IMO to gain an advantage in Fantasy Football is to know what your opponents are most likely going to do, and do the exact opposite. This year, with WR’s going higher than ever, people plan for their drafts willing to take turns and change depending on who falls. Predictably, this would be which RB would fall, but this year is different. This year is all over the map as scoring systems change and place value by weighting positions normally held by elite RB’s. RBBC is the norm, so the game changed...

 

Ok, so what you want to do is know what your opponents are targeting. This year in the Ladder, fate was very good to me and I took Witten in the 3rd and Gates in the 4th. Taking Brees in the 2nd was a stretch, as Brady seems to be going #1 now and Brees is dropping. This left me with both in a flex league with PPR and I can play both. What did this do? …it changed draft plans, and people start to panic… this is what you want.

 

In a non mandatorty TE league this isn’t an option, but in a mandatory TE PPR league, one player has #1 and #2 (arguably), and the guys who were planning on having one of them now have to switch gears. They will … they’ll grab the 3rd RB or WR before a TE, blow it off, and then later on draft at least two to cover. You have to mix it up and know that the mix up will change people’s plan. We’ll see…

 

One team I'd love to see is having Brady and Brees :wacko:

 

Any other one-sided drafts?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 62
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Hmm, I had just posted this a few minutes ago:

 

basically, QB and WR tend to be pretty even on many teams; D and K are crapshoots for the most part, and at RB, well, we all know they are fantasy gold (or have been; with PPR and flex players the RB dominance is beginning to ebb).

 

However, there is DEFINITE tiering of the TEs from the elite to the solid to the scrub. Grabbing TWO TEs early-ish (not saying your first two picks, but grab an elite guy in the first 3 rounds, and if possible jump on another solid TE before the big run if possible, and if rosters are big grabbing a 3rd TE from the "solid" bin doesn't hurt either) gives you a CLEAR edge at that position nearly every week; jumping on the 2nd TE early gives quality depth/trade bait and also depletes the talent pool, making your advantage with your starter even greater.

 

I don't think "stud TE theory" will necessarily win you a title, but I think it gives you an edge to get into the playoffs

 

I think there is something to the fact that a lone franchise can create a scarcity at TE and you should be willing to exploit a strategy that most people don't even realize is possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm in a league that you can flex in a TE, and people forget that there is often a high TE who is going to score more than a 3rd tier WR and get more endzone targets, simply because they are on a different page on their cheatsheets. I had high success with this last year, and grabbed a few good TEs again this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of the best ways IMO to gain an advantage in Fantasy Football is to know what your opponents are most likely going to do, and do the exact opposite. This year, with WR’s going higher than ever, people plan for their drafts willing to take turns and change depending on who falls. Predictably, this would be which RB would fall, but this year is different. This year is all over the map as scoring systems change and place value by weighting positions normally held by elite RB’s. RBBC is the norm, so the game changed...

 

Ok, so what you want to do is know what your opponents are targeting. This year in the Ladder, fate was very good to me and I took Witten in the 3rd and Gates in the 4th. Taking Brees in the 2nd was a stretch, as Brady seems to be going #1 now and Brees is dropping. This left me with both in a flex league with PPR and I can play both. What did this do? …it changed draft plans, and people start to LAUGH… this is what you want.

 

In a non mandatorty TE league this isn’t an option, but in a mandatory TE PPR league, one player has #1 and #2 (arguably), and the guys who were planning on having one of them now have to switch gears. They will … they’ll grab the 3rd RB or WR before a TE, blow it off, and then later on draft at least two to cover. You have to mix it up and know that the mix up will change people’s plan. We’ll see…

 

One team I'd love to see is having Brady and Brees :wacko:

 

Any other one-sided drafts?

 

 

 

 

fixed

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So let me get this straight. You are advocating drafting backups in the first four rounds of a FF draft as a viable strategy to winning a FF league, and in the meantime all other teams are drafting viable starters with large value numbers? OR can you start 2 TEs and TEs have good comparative value to other skill positions because of something like graduated ppr? If so, you are presenting an entirely different and valid scenario.

 

In a start 1 and only 1 TE league, the only way that works is if you have a non-thinker in your league who is willing to make a later trade that would allow you to cash in the substitute TE that your drafted way too early for better value than you would have received in his drafted spot.

 

In other words, if you are playing with neophytes, that may be a valid startegy. If you are playing with savvy FFers, they'll let you stew with that extra TE and eventually rip you off in a trade that you will likely be forced to make to be competitive, since you'd be essentially one round behind eveyone in the draft from round 4 all the way to about round 13/14.

Edited by Bronco Billy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So let me get this straight. You are advocating drafting backups in the first four rounds of a FF draft as a viable strategy to winning a FF league, and in the meantime all other teams are drafting viable starters with large value numbers? OR can you start 2 TEs and TEs have good comparative value to other skill positions because of something like graduated ppr? If so, you are presenting an entirely different and valid scenario.

 

In a start 1 and only 1 TE league, the only way that works is if you have a non-thinker in your league who is willing to make a later trade that would allow you to cash in the substitute TE that your drafted way too early for better value than you would have received in his drafted spot.

 

In other words, if you are playing with neophytes, that may be a valid startegy. If you are playing with savvy FFers, they'll let you stew with that extra TE and eventually rip you off in a trade that you will likely be forced to make to be competitive, since you'd be essentially one round behind eveyone in the draft from round 4 all the way to about round 13/14.

 

Flex position used in this league so you can start 2 TE

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Flex position used in this league so you can start 2 TE

 

And do TEs have comparable scoring capacity to other flex positions (in other words, would Witten score as much or more than the top flex RB/WRs?)

 

If so, this could be a viable but very shaky strategy (again, you are selecting flex players while others are selecting starters). If not, then the strategy is extremely risky and relies on a rube to be taken advantage of later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And do TEs have comparable scoring capacity to other flex positions (in other words, would Witten score as much or more than the top flex RB/WRs?)

 

If so, this could be a viable but very shaky strategy (again, you are selecting flex players while others are selecting starters). If not, then the strategy is extremely risky and relies on a rube to be taken advantage of later.

Last year same league:

 

Gonzo 261.8 28th overall

Witten 202.3 63rd overall

 

this league is heavy QB scoring as the top 7, 12 of 30 and 21 of 60 scorers are QB

 

Gonzo's 261 puts him in the same range as AP, Portis and C. Johnson

Witten was #2 TE things are a little different but still the 41st non QB scorer

so depends on how you look at it and what you get later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

this league is heavy QB scoring as the top 7, 12 of 30 and 21 of 60 scorers are QB

 

That's irrelevant, unless the top 2 to 3 QBs outscore the rest of the QBs by a very wide margin. I'm guessing that's not the case.

 

Last year same league:

 

Gonzo 261.8 28th overall

Witten 202.3 63rd overall

 

Gonzo's 261 puts him in the same range as AP, Portis and C. Johnson

Witten was #2 TE things are a little different but still the 41st non QB scorer

so depends on how you look at it and what you get later.

 

So it's pretty safe to say that Gonzo's year last year was a bit of an anomoly and we probably wouldn't see that margin between TE1 and TE2 in a normal year (actually, I know it's safe to say since I've crunched the numbers). The number 2 TE scores about the same as WR18 and RB15 in that scoring system, so you are drafting good flex value there - provided that you are drafting the top 2 scoring TEs.

 

There is a good chance those guys won't finish 1/2, meaning that you are now drafting a TE who is comparable to a flex WR or flex RB, but you are drafting then in rd 4 when everyone else is still drafting starters (players with greater value than a flex TE). That's a poor strategy and will only work, as I stated previously, if you find a neophyte to trade with who will give you great value in return. The only other scenario where this works is if other league members panic in the draft and start grabbing TEs too early, allowing other players with greater value to drop. Highly unlikely that you'll start a TE run in the 4th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think that if there were TWO tight ends that you were absolutely positive would be significantly better than rest of the tight ends, it might be a strategy. But with the tight end pool as it is, it is hard for me to tell you which one will even lead the pack by seasons end. I would think this is definitely not the season to attempt such tom-foolery.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think that if there were TWO tight ends that you were absolutely positive would be significantly better than rest of the tight ends, it might be a strategy. But with the tight end pool as it is, it is hard for me to tell you which one will even lead the pack by seasons end. I would think this is definitely not the season to attempt such tom-foolery.

 

+1. Can't remember a year where the TE pool was this deep. There are a few guys who I think will prove to be bigtime sleepers, esp. Boss and Carlson.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

maybe if you have a graduated PPR where TEs get like .5 more per catch than WRs, at least one mandatory TE spot, AND a flex position where you can play them both. in that sort of scenario, guys like witten and gonzo project out as like top 15 or so WRs. so you'd be getting essentially a good #2 WR around the time in the draft where you should be, AND you would be driving scarcity at that mandatory position for other teams. that could be a good move.

 

but anything where you're sacrificing value on your own team in hopes of somehow jobbing another team or two is not a receipe for success. taking a second TE when better scoring starters at other positions are still on the board falls into that category.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Drafting to try and screw the rest of the league (ie avoiding a good pick to try and "corner the market" on a position, even a little) is frankly stupid. If you draft 2 top TEs, it better be because you can start a TE over a WR or RB in a flex and he is the best option avail, which is pretty unlikely.

 

The best way to screw over everyone else is by drafting the best fieldable team you can.

Edited by BeeR
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are several Decent TE options. Taking two TE that early is insane. What RB did you get?

AP and bunch of longshots. It's a given that my RB#2 was going to be weak.

 

So let me get this straight. You are advocating drafting backups in the first four rounds of a FF draft as a viable strategy to winning a FF league, and in the meantime all other teams are drafting viable starters with large value numbers? OR can you start 2 TEs and TEs have good comparative value to other skill positions because of something like graduated ppr? If so, you are presenting an entirely different and valid scenario.

 

In a start 1 and only 1 TE league, the only way that works is if you have a non-thinker in your league who is willing to make a later trade that would allow you to cash in the substitute TE that your drafted way too early for better value than you would have received in his drafted spot.

 

In other words, if you are playing with neophytes, that may be a valid startegy. If you are playing with savvy FFers, they'll let you stew with that extra TE and eventually rip you off in a trade that you will likely be forced to make to be competitive, since you'd be essentially one round behind eveyone in the draft from round 4 all the way to about round 13/14.

It's a mandatory TE with a flex, so you can start two, I already stated that if you can only start one, this isn't viable.

 

The point I'm making is when the TE's get drafted. Once the shift happens, TE's like Cooley and Clark are taken sooner. Once you get past the top 6 TE's, then people will wait, but a lot of times they'll draft an extra TE to cover, and do it sooner. This early in the season, it's a pretty safe bet that injury will strike, teams will exceed the predictions and others will fall, and a lot of week one TE's will have two catches for 18 yards. Having trade bait like an elite TE can fill many slots, because they will always be in demand. I'm basing this on strength of position, and if a TE#2 exceeds a WR#3 or RB#3, then the value at flex is worth it. You can't have it all, but I guess the point is the trade value is clearly there if they stay healthy.

Edited by Thews40
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well seeing as I was in this draft and somewhat involved in this pick, I thought I would chime in. I held the 4.12 pick & Thews held the 4.10 pick. What was unknown at this point was that at the 4.05 pick I started msging people trying to trade up to grab Gates. Could not pull the trigger on a trade, as we rolled into the 4.10 pick. Thews is on the clock & he already has Witten. Gates & Tony G. still on the board. So what I am thinking - Thews isnt going to draft a second TE at this point ESPECIALLY since he grabbed Brees in the 2nd round. He would be walking out of the 1st for rounds in a tough spot if he did this. So this would leave me Gates or TonyG. But I didnt want TG - so I msg Thews looking to trade up 2 spots. He didnt like the trade offer & never made a counter offer, so I left it alone & guess what, he drafts Gates. The guy in between us doesnt draft TG. Now contrary to what the thought process was, I in no way paniced. The picking of Gates was dissapointing, but in no way re arranged my draft or made me panic.. I did figure that Owen Daniels would be there at my 6.12 pick but he was gone, as this draft had a serious run on Wr's & Te's pretty much every round it seemed. I walked away with V.Shianco in the 12th round and have no problem with it.

 

Did I want Gates, of course - who doesnt, but we dont always get every player we want, and if you are someone who panics when a player u target gets picked ahead of you, you are in for alot of dissapointment in Fantasy Football.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't advise going TE 3-4. More like grab one 3-4, then another before the run starts.

 

Obviously in a TE-mandatory league, flex helps, and the league where it's been most successful basically awards the TE 1.5 pts for every 1 pt a WR gets for rec/yds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its funny that this thread popped up now.

 

I am in a 12 team keeper league. We can keep up to 4 players. If we keep 1 we lose our first. If we keep 4 we lose our first thru fourth.

 

Its PPR. We can play:

 

1 QB

1 RB

2 WR

1 TE

1 D/ST

1 PK

2 Flex (WR/RB/TE)

 

TEs get a little bit of a premium on catches.

 

We can trade players and picks leading up to picking keepers but we cannot trade picks 1-4. I wheeled and dealed - passing 3 players who were better than 2 of the players I was keeping to pick up 3 extra picks in the 5th.

 

My keepers were Brees, Reggie, Witten and Roy Williams.

 

I picked up the following with my 4 fifth round picks.

 

Gates, Ray Rice, Wells and B. Edwards.

 

I will let you know how the 2 elite TE thing works out. I think it worked for me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well seeing as I was in this draft and somewhat involved in this pick, I thought I would chime in. I held the 4.12 pick & Thews held the 4.10 pick. What was unknown at this point was that at the 4.05 pick I started msging people trying to trade up to grab Gates. Could not pull the trigger on a trade, as we rolled into the 4.10 pick. Thews is on the clock & he already has Witten. Gates & Tony G. still on the board. So what I am thinking - Thews isnt going to draft a second TE at this point ESPECIALLY since he grabbed Brees in the 2nd round. He would be walking out of the 1st for rounds in a tough spot if he did this. So this would leave me Gates or TonyG. But I didnt want TG - so I msg Thews looking to trade up 2 spots. He didnt like the trade offer & never made a counter offer, so I left it alone & guess what, he drafts Gates. The guy in between us doesnt draft TG. Now contrary to what the thought process was, I in no way paniced. The picking of Gates was dissapointing, but in no way re arranged my draft or made me panic.. I did figure that Owen Daniels would be there at my 6.12 pick but he was gone, as this draft had a serious run on Wr's & Te's pretty much every round it seemed. I walked away with V.Shianco in the 12th round and have no problem with it.

 

Did I want Gates, of course - who doesnt, but we dont always get every player we want, and if you are someone who panics when a player u target gets picked ahead of you, you are in for alot of dissapointment in Fantasy Football.

For the record I'm not implying you guys panicked. You actually didn't, and I was sorta bummed about it. Drafting with pros is different that the gang at work draft, where some of them are pros. The intent is to force an early run, filling in and moving the mid targets upward. I've tried to do this by darfting QB's early as well, but you sorta need a biased scoring system and clear top level QB's that don't run deep; they're fairly deep this year IMO.

Edited by Thews40
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sorry man, I'm not buying into it. Seems like you are over thinking the situation. Unless there are relatively strange circumstances, I don't see this as viable. People can have a bad pick and go on to have a good team. In no way do I think that a bust in the 4th is going to doom someone, but I think the odds are this is a bad strategy for a draft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information