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Ever been really surprised at a draft?


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Me too. Why would you ever be so rigid in your drafting strategy? No matter how much you prepare it never works the way you expect it too. You have to be dynamic and adjust to what is going on. Unlike the owner in my league yesterday who drafted Joseph Addai with his 2nd pick!

 

Or the owner (12th pick of 12 teams) who picked Peyton Manning with his #1 pick and then immediately followed with Marion Barber! Still on the board:

1) Steven Jackson

2) Drew Brees

3) Tom Brady

4) Aaron Rodgers

5) Steve Smith (CAR)

6) Calvin Johnson

7) Frank Gore

8) Greg Jennings

9) Clinton Portis

 

Doh!

You don't bring me flowers...ANYMORE!? This guy at my draft the other night did the same thing. Took Pmanning with his first pick (1st qb taken) then took barber in the second round!!!

 

As far as drafting goes...I go in knowing about what will happen due to the trends I have seen in mocks, fantasy writeups, and leaguemates but I am always ready to adjust. Rarely does some crazy value fall and usually it is like clockwork in the leagues I play in how the 1st round goes. In other leagues with different scoring, I can imagine how crazy it could get. I am aware that this year QB's are going early and faster then previous years.

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On a lesser note the following season some dude in the same league took culpepper #1 overall. You shouldve heard how quiet the room got after he picked.

I took Culpepper #1 overall my first year in FF. It was the year he got hurt towards the end of the season but by that time I'd traded him as part of a package for Shaun Alexander. I went on to win the league.

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I normally go into a draft/auction with an idea of what I'd like to do early on. However those plans are usually flushed down the toilet very quickly once others begin throwing darts at my draft board!

 

+1

 

Did a mock auction last night for a BOTH league and picked up Turner and Slaton early because they were so cheap - didn't particularly want either player but Slaton for 19% of cap and Turner for less than 30% of cap was just too good to pass up. To get starting RB set for less than 50% of cap I thought was phenomenal. :wacko:

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Out of all the posts though, the only one "really surprised" that makes sense is the Tiki Barber one (complete forgot thing) - I've seen that happen once before where a 4th/5th rounder got drafted in round 15 and everyone said "off the board"....until the guy said "really, to who?"...and turned out he was right

 

ADP going 6th while definitely a bit nuts may not have been anyone's "mistake" so much as 4 guys thinking the other backs due to PPR were better, and the Brees pick just being a scoring thing (6 pt TDs in 2 QB leagues with RB being as deep as they are make Drew Brees arguably the most valuable player...)

 

Not sure I'd say this is a matter of "too planned" or whatever - especially that early - it's not like anyone got lost in their sheet after 3 picks - they just valued someone else more (now, in saying all that, the guy that took SJax over ADP is an idiot)

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Last night in a 12 team standard scoring league, I had the 3rd pick.

 

in the second round (#22), I had Randy Moss fall to me. :wacko::D

in the third round (#27), Calvin Johnson was also sitting there for me to take!!

 

 

Oh, and Darrin Sproles got taken at #16!!! :D

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This is why I don't enter drafts with a pre-set agenda.

 

The only pre set agenda I ever have is what to do if I get the first pick. We pick our draft position at the draft so we do not know what spot we have in advance. At my draft this year there was some strange picking. #1 was Larry Fitzgerald!!!

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How fixed are you when you draft?

 

This response may be a little elementary to some or most of you, but this is my little gift to the guys who haven't figured it out yet.

 

The thing is...you can't be fixed on "a plan" and expect to have a starting lineup that will bring home the bacon. Always remember its not always good to go RB, RB, WR, or any variation of the sort just because some magazine said it was the sure fire path to glory. Its true that you need a strategy, but your strategy must have contingency plans throughout the first 5 rounds so that you can adjust fire when needed so that you can get the best value from your selections. Its all about value and knowing which player remaining on the board obtains the most value overall before you make your next selection. Its also vital to know what value will be there for you in the mid and later rounds so you can fill the possible voids in your roster which could be glaring you in the face after the first 5 rounds of your draft. You want to look at your first 5 draft picks as the foundation of your team. Solid picks with minimal risk, which hopefully puts the other teams at an automatic disadvantage in comparison. These steps and tools are implemented to help you evaluate and recognize a player's value in relation to your drafting position while also considering the flow of the draft (as in a current run of 4 QBs fall off the board within 5 picks...what should you do?) They are also helpful in evaluating which players in the mid to late rounds hold the best value for your team given your team's current depth situation after round 5.

 

To begin with, I like to study a few mock drafts that resemble my league's format and scoring system to get a good idea of who may be available when its my turn to select, and which players I covet will be there in the later rounds when I need them the most. Studying a mock draft CHART is a better study tool than trying to remember everyone's ADP and trying to create a strategy from there. At least for me it is. After studying several mock draft charts, start out small and attempt to map out your first 3 picks in a "How you want the draft to workout" plan. When you have your plan of attack ready to rock and roll, you're still not totally prepared because you must have a contingency plan in place from the first round and thereafter just in case you don't get who you are targeting right off the bat. This may require you selecting not only a different player, but even a different position as well. (Depending on the league's scoring system)

 

For example...tonight I had a draft in a QB heavy league that allows you to start 2 QBs at the same time. (Starting Lineup: QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, TE, K, DEF, and a FLEX which allows you to use a QB/RB/WR/TE) Top tier QBs score just as high and sometimes higher than the best RBs (like Brady of 07, and Brees of 08). I had the 7th pick in this (non-PPR) 10 team league and I really wanted to get a STUD QB (mainly Brees) in the first round to build my team around. But for some reason Michael Turner fell into my lap at the 7 spot while only one QB was off the board thus far. (Brady at 1.4) Did I still take Brees? HELL NO...I didn't!!! I took Turner and gave a wink and nod to the 6 idiots who passed him up. My original strategy was drafting a QB (Brees hopefully) in the 1st, RB in the 2nd (targeting LT), and the best available WR in the 3rd. But when the bullets started flying I ended up taking Turner in the 1st, Rodgers in the 2nd, and Roddy White in the 3rd. Having already stated why I selected Turner in the first, lets move on to round 2. LT wasn't on the board anymore in the 2nd round, plus 3 of the 6 picks between my 1st and 2nd picks were QBs. With L:T, Brees, Brady, Rivers, and Manning all off the board it was an easy choice to make. Best available QB (Rodgers) because the top tier of QBs were going fast, and I wouldn't have a chance to get one later as my next pick was 13 picks away. Plus you have to consider there were tons of WRs left on the board with no one team in a position to take a WR advantage as the next 6 picks would certainly knock 4-5 of the top WRs off the board before the guy drafting 2.10 / 3.1 could really grab 2 STUD WR combo. Long story short I got the best available WR which was Roddy White in the 3rd round. From there I targeted the most valuable player I thought would be there for me in the 4th round which was Grant, and fortunately I was able hitch him onto my wagon there in the 4th round. With my starting RBs set in place, my 5th round selection was a choice between another WR, a starting TE, or a good backup QB who I could also start in my FLEX position. I was leaning towards WR because I really didn't want to go into round 6 with only one WR, but 5 of the next 12 picks were all QBs, leaving only Hasselbeck, who was in my eyes the last worthy QB left on the board. So I took Hasselbeck in the 5th round and crossed my fingers in hopes that some quality WRs would fall my way later on in the draft.

 

Having helpful tools at your disposal during the draft really does make a difference. While I'm drafting I use a lot of tools that help keep things "mapped out" while giving me the panoramic view of the draft. Of course I always have thehuddle rankings list which is tailored to my league's scoring system that I use to cross out the players as they are selected, but I also have a blank draft chart with enough rows and columns to cover all the picks from start to finish. I don't write down the names of each player drafted, but instead I just write down the positions that were drafted in order to keep track of what positions teams currently have and/or need. This is vital when trying to determine whether or not you can wait another round on a certain player you want to draft. I also have a printed version of the lasted mock draft that fits my league's scoring system and format sitting near by so that I can look at it in order to not only gauge the feel of the draft, but I find it also helps me identify possible steals (Example: as in finding a player available in the mid 7th round who is typical drafted in the early 6th round). And lastly I use notes consisting of estimated guesses in which I identify players by rounds I believe they will be drafted in. That way if you get behind in a certain position, or need to get that backup RB for your bye week, or you need to fill that last WR slot, you can just look at down at your notes to see how much longer Driver, Moss, Mason, or Coles will be available for you to pick up and adjust your game plan from there.

 

Again, I'm not trying to say my way is best or that any of this is something novel to the fantasy world. I'm just tossing out some helpful ideas for those who may find it fruitful.

 

In case you were wondering...this is the result of my draft I mentioned in this response.

 

QB: Rodgers, Hasselbeck

RB: Turner, Grant, Bradshaw, Chester Taylor, Jamal Lewis

WR: White, Welker, Driver, Coles, Morgan, Crayton

TE: Olsen, Watson

K: Elam, Gould

DEF: Chargers, Packers, Cardinals

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Last night in a 12 team standard scoring league, I had the 3rd pick.

 

in the second round (#22), I had Randy Moss fall to me. :wacko::D

in the third round (#27), Calvin Johnson was also sitting there for me to take!!

 

 

Oh, and Darrin Sproles got taken at #16!!! :D

 

Clearly you're drafting with a bunch of fantasy pros :D

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Did an email draft earlier this week and, in the 11th round, I hadn't taken a QB yet. Palmer and Matt Ryan were still on the board when the guy in front of me (who already had Rivers) was up, so I figured I'd get one. Dude selected Ryan and then immediately called me to gloat about "screwing" me. I was like, "I still got Carson Palmer, dude - maybe you should focus on drafting guys you actually need instead of trying to screw other owners." He didn't have much to say to that - drafting strategy of some people will never cease to amaze me.

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i'm in a keeper league. we actually keep 8 players so our draft is top heavy with rookie RBs and the like.

draft went Donald Brown, Knowshon Moreno, Domenik Hixon, then Beanie Wells.

that's right. a guy who's been in our league for ten years took Hixon at #3. i can only assume he mixed up Nicks and Hixon, but even then its ridiculous. worst pick ever!

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i'm in a keeper league. we actually keep 8 players so our draft is top heavy with rookie RBs and the like.

draft went Donald Brown, Knowshon Moreno, Domenik Hixon, then Beanie Wells.

that's right. a guy who's been in our league for ten years took Hixon at #3. i can only assume he mixed up Nicks and Hixon, but even then its ridiculous. worst pick ever!

 

over beanie, no less. yoinks - that's indeed ridiculous.

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A guy in my league actually drafted Plaxico Burress in round 12. He asked..."Is Burress still out there?" We all just looked at each other and nodded yes. So he said..."Great, I'll take him." Being the commish I finalized the pick, then advised him ole Plexiglass was goign to be in prison for the next 2 years. He was actually pissed I let him draft Burress. Whatever, if you're that big of an idiot...lets double the entry fee!!!

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Just got back from draft - it's a new league for me, which is bound to give you some unexpected moves.

 

Some mild surprises started off early, including Fitz 1.05 and Brady 1.06 (I passed on Brees w/next pick and he ALMOST made it back to me in 2d but picked right in front of me :wacko: ....anyway...). Also Wayne 1.08. RB CJ (TEN) lasted till late 2d (I could have taken him but made a panic pick of Rodgers in 2d when I just missed Brees, was determined to get a top ranked QB).

 

A big surprise to me was being able to nab RB Grant in the 4th, IMO great value. In fact I only passed in the 3d because I had no WRs and we start 3.

 

One of biggies to me was Warner lasting till 7th freaking round. I almost took him in 6th for trade bait and had planned to in 7th.

 

PIT D went in 6th was too early IMO.

 

There were a few more but don't have the whole draft list in front of me offhand......

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This league, my main local, always makes me think a bit more because some of the picks and trends that occur just seem to come out of nowhere and generally have no historical precedent but his year was special.

We start 1 QB

 

One team took Brees in the 2nd and Rivers in the 4th and Gostkowski in the 6th.

 

Another took Romo and Ryan back to back in the 4th and 5th.

 

Stuff like this goes on all the time but the most shocking stretch of drafting I believe I've ever seen was one team doing this from rounds 5-8...

 

Sidney Rice

Troy Williamson

Jason Elam

Buccaneers D/ST

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Being the commish I finalized the pick, then advised him ole Plexiglass was goign to be in prison for the next 2 years. He was actually pissed I let him draft Burress.

 

Tell him it's called "accountability". Learn about it.

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This league, my main local, always makes me think a bit more because some of the picks and trends that occur just seem to come out of nowhere and generally have no historical precedent but his year was special.

We start 1 QB

 

One team took Brees in the 2nd and Rivers in the 4th and Gostkowski in the 6th.

 

Another took Romo and Ryan back to back in the 4th and 5th.

 

Stuff like this goes on all the time but the most shocking stretch of drafting I believe I've ever seen was one team doing this from rounds 5-8...

 

Sidney Rice

Troy Williamson

Jason Elam

Buccaneers D/ST

There are some doozies in my big money local too, but that's just downright funny farm right there.

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How fixed are you when you draft?

 

This response may be a little elementary to some or most of you, but this is my little gift to the guys who haven't figured it out yet.

 

The thing is...you can't be fixed on "a plan" and expect to have a starting lineup that will bring home the bacon. Always remember its not always good to go RB, RB, WR, or any variation of the sort just because some magazine said it was the sure fire path to glory. Its true that you need a strategy, but your strategy must have contingency plans throughout the first 5 rounds so that you can adjust fire when needed so that you can get the best value from your selections. Its all about value and knowing which player remaining on the board obtains the most value overall before you make your next selection. Its also vital to know what value will be there for you in the mid and later rounds so you can fill the possible voids in your roster which could be glaring you in the face after the first 5 rounds of your draft. You want to look at your first 5 draft picks as the foundation of your team. Solid picks with minimal risk, which hopefully puts the other teams at an automatic disadvantage in comparison. These steps and tools are implemented to help you evaluate and recognize a player's value in relation to your drafting position while also considering the flow of the draft (as in a current run of 4 QBs fall off the board within 5 picks...what should you do?) They are also helpful in evaluating which players in the mid to late rounds hold the best value for your team given your team's current depth situation after round 5.

 

To begin with, I like to study a few mock drafts that resemble my league's format and scoring system to get a good idea of who may be available when its my turn to select, and which players I covet will be there in the later rounds when I need them the most. Studying a mock draft CHART is a better study tool than trying to remember everyone's ADP and trying to create a strategy from there. At least for me it is. After studying several mock draft charts, start out small and attempt to map out your first 3 picks in a "How you want the draft to workout" plan. When you have your plan of attack ready to rock and roll, you're still not totally prepared because you must have a contingency plan in place from the first round and thereafter just in case you don't get who you are targeting right off the bat. This may require you selecting not only a different player, but even a different position as well. (Depending on the league's scoring system)

 

For example...tonight I had a draft in a QB heavy league that allows you to start 2 QBs at the same time. (Starting Lineup: QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, TE, K, DEF, and a FLEX which allows you to use a QB/RB/WR/TE) Top tier QBs score just as high and sometimes higher than the best RBs (like Brady of 07, and Brees of 08). I had the 7th pick in this (non-PPR) 10 team league and I really wanted to get a STUD QB (mainly Brees) in the first round to build my team around. But for some reason Michael Turner fell into my lap at the 7 spot while only one QB was off the board thus far. (Brady at 1.4) Did I still take Brees? HELL NO...I didn't!!! I took Turner and gave a wink and nod to the 6 idiots who passed him up. My original strategy was drafting a QB (Brees hopefully) in the 1st, RB in the 2nd (targeting LT), and the best available WR in the 3rd. But when the bullets started flying I ended up taking Turner in the 1st, Rodgers in the 2nd, and Roddy White in the 3rd. Having already stated why I selected Turner in the first, lets move on to round 2. LT wasn't on the board anymore in the 2nd round, plus 3 of the 6 picks between my 1st and 2nd picks were QBs. With L:T, Brees, Brady, Rivers, and Manning all off the board it was an easy choice to make. Best available QB (Rodgers) because the top tier of QBs were going fast, and I wouldn't have a chance to get one later as my next pick was 13 picks away. Plus you have to consider there were tons of WRs left on the board with no one team in a position to take a WR advantage as the next 6 picks would certainly knock 4-5 of the top WRs off the board before the guy drafting 2.10 / 3.1 could really grab 2 STUD WR combo. Long story short I got the best available WR which was Roddy White in the 3rd round. From there I targeted the most valuable player I thought would be there for me in the 4th round which was Grant, and fortunately I was able hitch him onto my wagon there in the 4th round. With my starting RBs set in place, my 5th round selection was a choice between another WR, a starting TE, or a good backup QB who I could also start in my FLEX position. I was leaning towards WR because I really didn't want to go into round 6 with only one WR, but 5 of the next 12 picks were all QBs, leaving only Hasselbeck, who was in my eyes the last worthy QB left on the board. So I took Hasselbeck in the 5th round and crossed my fingers in hopes that some quality WRs would fall my way later on in the draft.

 

Having helpful tools at your disposal during the draft really does make a difference. While I'm drafting I use a lot of tools that help keep things "mapped out" while giving me the panoramic view of the draft. Of course I always have thehuddle rankings list which is tailored to my league's scoring system that I use to cross out the players as they are selected, but I also have a blank draft chart with enough rows and columns to cover all the picks from start to finish. I don't write down the names of each player drafted, but instead I just write down the positions that were drafted in order to keep track of what positions teams currently have and/or need. This is vital when trying to determine whether or not you can wait another round on a certain player you want to draft. I also have a printed version of the lasted mock draft that fits my league's scoring system and format sitting near by so that I can look at it in order to not only gauge the feel of the draft, but I find it also helps me identify possible steals (Example: as in finding a player available in the mid 7th round who is typical drafted in the early 6th round). And lastly I use notes consisting of estimated guesses in which I identify players by rounds I believe they will be drafted in. That way if you get behind in a certain position, or need to get that backup RB for your bye week, or you need to fill that last WR slot, you can just look at down at your notes to see how much longer Driver, Moss, Mason, or Coles will be available for you to pick up and adjust your game plan from there.

 

Again, I'm not trying to say my way is best or that any of this is something novel to the fantasy world. I'm just tossing out some helpful ideas for those who may find it fruitful.

 

In case you were wondering...this is the result of my draft I mentioned in this response.

 

QB: Rodgers, Hasselbeck

RB: Turner, Grant, Bradshaw, Chester Taylor, Jamal Lewis

WR: White, Welker, Driver, Coles, Morgan, Crayton

TE: Olsen, Watson

K: Elam, Gould

DEF: Chargers, Packers, Cardinals

 

How in the heck did you get Welker so late :wacko:

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Had my local big money league draft last night. 10 team league with option to keep 1 guy for each team. These guys aren't "chumps" by any means IMO. In every league there are a few guys that just aren't great but most of these guys are competitive as they get.

 

This draft went REALLY weird IMO. A few to speak of right from the door

 

2.5-Aaron Rodgers- I was VERY surprised here...but Brees, Brady, and Manning were all gone before 2.3

4.3-Anthony Gonzalez-WR's FLEW off the chart early and we hit tier 3 WR's around round 4

 

 

I will update later...these were the weird ones

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I'm fixed on one thing this year. If Peterson is available, draft him.

In my main league (team in sig) I was planning on going RB-WR-QB only because I figured the top signal callers would make it back to me and only 1 top Wr would too. Ended up taking 2 top 10 WR's and getting QB next round due to the amount of QB's that went and the thinning WR's.

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