Warner or Rivers at pick #3?

[RakeFighter]

Ok fellows -

 

I have the #3 pick and am going QB for sure. Question is, do I roll with Warner and chance his health, or opt for Rivers even though it probably means that either the Boldin or Fitzgerald owner will pick up Warner at pick 7 or 9? Other QB's that will likely be available are Romo, Cutler, McNabb, and Cassell, but I'm pretty set on either Warner or Rivers.

 

Opinions?

[zebano]

What exactly is your scoring methodology that makes QBs so valuable? Also if you have the #3 that means Brees and Brady should be gone so I think your real choice is between Manning and Rodgers.

 

 

I do like Rivers better than Warner. First off I think he's better and has far less injury risk. Warner's advantages are that he has the better receivers and less of a running game to take attempts away.

Edited September 3, 2009 by zebano

[mroban]

Ok fellows -

 

I have the #3 pick and am going QB for sure. Question is, do I roll with Warner and chance his health, or opt for Rivers even though it probably means that either the Boldin or Fitzgerald owner will pick up Warner at pick 7 or 9? Other QB's that will likely be available are Romo, Cutler, McNabb, and Cassell, but I'm pretty set on either Warner or Rivers.

 

Opinions?

 

Im personally rolling with Warner this year and I took Leinart as a backup. I think Leinart would do fine given the easy schedule the Cards have. I think Warner is well worth the risk. But last season I had Peyton Manning and Warner and "sold high" on Warner after week 5 to bolster my team because I figured Warner wouldnt last the year because, you know, he never does. So he did it once. Can he do it again? Well, the Cards have very good pass protection. If they can keep him upright he has a better chance of staying healthy obviously. But its a serious risk. Thank goodness I have Favre to back him up! Seriously, if you go with Warner make sure you take Leinart. I think Leinart is hungry and ready to step in. He has looked pretty sharp in pre-season (albeit against 2nd teams defenses and he always looks good in pre-season).

[mroban]

Ok fellows -

 

I have the #3 pick and am going QB for sure. Question is, do I roll with Warner and chance his health, or opt for Rivers even though it probably means that either the Boldin or Fitzgerald owner will pick up Warner at pick 7 or 9? Other QB's that will likely be available are Romo, Cutler, McNabb, and Cassell, but I'm pretty set on either Warner or Rivers.

 

Opinions?

 

Btw, when you say that QB is the highest scoring position, by how much? I really cant assess this without knowing the actual scoring system and breaking it down. But, my gut feeling is that if you wait for the 2nd round (21st pick in a 12 team league) the top 10 QBs will be all gone and you will be hoping for Hasselbeck to have a big bounce back year. Is it worth looking at "upside QBs" for round 2 that could potentially put up monster numbers that are close to the top 5?

 

for example you could draft AP (who also carries some risk) and roll the dice on a QB with upside.

 

Btw, why arent you considering Aaron Rodgers here? Any chance Tony Romo falls to you at 2.9? Matt Schaub?

 

If you could get Schaub (who is apparently made of glass but some feel is poised to jon the top 5 this year) then perhaps its worth a roll of the dice to secure AP (or such other top RB you fancy) with 1.3?

 

Just a thought to give you something different to consider.

[RakeFighter]

What exactly is your scoring methodology that makes QBs so valuable? Also if you have the #3 that means Brees and Brady should be gone so I think your real choice is between Manning and Rodgers.

 

 

I do like Rivers better than Warner. First off I think he's better and has far less injury risk. Warner's advantages are that he has the better receivers and less of a running game to take attempts away.

 

4pt passing TD/6pt rushing TD

20yds/pt passing

10yds/pt rushing

 

Our QBs are always top scorers (example: Brees last year scored 323 points, as opposed to the top RB (D Williams), who scored 268. The league is a keeper league, with Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan, and Brady already being kept.

 

Thanks for your reply.

[RakeFighter]

Im personally rolling with Warner this year and I took Leinart as a backup. I think Leinart would do fine given the easy schedule the Cards have. I think Warner is well worth the risk. But last season I had Peyton Manning and Warner and "sold high" on Warner after week 5 to bolster my team because I figured Warner wouldnt last the year because, you know, he never does. So he did it once. Can he do it again? Well, the Cards have very good pass protection. If they can keep him upright he has a better chance of staying healthy obviously. But its a serious risk. Thank goodness I have Favre to back him up! Seriously, if you go with Warner make sure you take Leinart. I think Leinart is hungry and ready to step in. He has looked pretty sharp in pre-season (albeit against 2nd teams defenses and he always looks good in pre-season).

 

I had Warner last season and he served me well...I didn't anticipate him playing another year after the SB loss, so I cut him when we made our drops.

 

I can't believe I'm this torn, lol. I think I'm mainly afraid of his age/hip.

[RakeFighter]

Btw, when you say that QB is the highest scoring position, by how much? I really cant assess this without knowing the actual scoring system and breaking it down. But, my gut feeling is that if you wait for the 2nd round (21st pick in a 12 team league) the top 10 QBs will be all gone and you will be hoping for Hasselbeck to have a big bounce back year. Is it worth looking at "upside QBs" for round 2 that could potentially put up monster numbers that are close to the top 5?

 

for example you could draft AP (who also carries some risk) and roll the dice on a QB with upside.

 

Btw, why arent you considering Aaron Rodgers here? Any chance Tony Romo falls to you at 2.9? Matt Schaub?

 

If you could get Schaub (who is apparently made of glass but some feel is poised to jon the top 5 this year) then perhaps its worth a roll of the dice to secure AP (or such other top RB you fancy) with 1.3?

 

Just a thought to give you something different to consider.

 

I should have mentioned earlier that this is a keeper league (first post this season and I forgot my fundamentals - haha)...Romo will be taken by the team immediately ahead of me, as he is THE Dallas homer. Schaub is on my best bud's short list, and I think I've mentally made him off limits.

 

Thanks for the reply.

[tazinib1]

4pt passing TD/6pt rushing TD

20yds/pt passing

10yds/pt rushing

 

Our QBs are always top scorers (example: Brees last year scored 323 points, as opposed to the top RB (D Williams), who scored 268. The league is a keeper league, with Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan, and Brady already being kept.

 

Thanks for your reply.

 

This is not a high scoring QB league. This is standard scoring. How many keepers are there per team and what are yours?

[zebano]

This is not a high scoring QB league. This is standard scoring. How many keepers are there per team and what are yours?

 

Actually I think 25yds/pt passing is normal, thus:

 

A QB that throws for 3000 yard gains 120 points normally and 150 points here + TDs

A QB that throws for 3500 yard gains 140 points normally and 175 points here + TDs

A QB that throws for 4000 yard gains 160 points normally and 200 points here + TDs

 

 

 

So that is roughly 1.875, 218755 and 2.5 points per game respectively. Bree's and Brady will do even better.

[Big Country]

4pt passing TD/6pt rushing TD

20yds/pt passing

10yds/pt rushing

 

Our QBs are always top scorers (example: Brees last year scored 323 points, as opposed to the top RB (D Williams), who scored 268. The league is a keeper league, with Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan, and Brady already being kept.

 

Thanks for your reply.

 

Value is determined by point differential within the position, not total points.

 

This is a pretty standard scoring setup, so QBs are not really that valuable, unless you can start 2.

 

What are your lineup requirements, who are your keepers, and who do you see as the BAP at the other positions as you have already told us what QBs are there.

[RuffBuff]

Value is determined by point differential within the position, not total points.

 

This is a pretty standard scoring setup, so QBs are not really that valuable, unless you can start 2.

 

What are your lineup requirements, who are your keepers, and who do you see as the BAP at the other positions as you have already told us what QBs are there.

 

Exactly.

 

Going QB at #3 is not a bright move. If the other people in this league think that way you can steam rool the draft and win the league with Carson Palmer in the 7th or later.

 

Its not about total points scored its about relative point. There are 12 starting QBs in your league. The #4 scoring QB is probably only a 1-2 points per week different than the #12 scoring QB, However you start 2 RBs probably. There is a bigger difference from #4 RB to #24 RB. Thats why you want to load up on RBs and WRs. You can get a decent QB later.

 

You can get MJD, Michael Turner, or Matt Forte. Go for 1 of those guys at #3 for sure. The Delta between them and the RBs that are left at your #21 pick is huge. If someone like Rivers or Rodgers is there with your 27th pick in the 3rd round. I would grab them there if you really like having a QB that has a shot to be a top 3 QB.

[Bigb2345]

My advice is to let all the other guys in your league continue thinking the way you do now. What I need you to do now may sound drastic but it will work. STOP thinking QB is so important in your league. Let all those guys waste picks while you land value picks thru rnd 5. After that scoop up Cutler/ Hasselbeck in rnds 6/7.

[Bigb2345]

I was just imagining the plethera of amazing picks that would be there in rnd 2 if the guys in my league all went qb in rnd 1.

 

:salivates like Homer:

[mroban]

Exactly.

 

Going QB at #3 is not a bright move. If the other people in this league think that way you can steam rool the draft and win the league with Carson Palmer in the 7th or later.

 

Its not about total points scored its about relative point. There are 12 starting QBs in your league. The #4 scoring QB is probably only a 1-2 points per week different than the #12 scoring QB, However you start 2 RBs probably. There is a bigger difference from #4 RB to #24 RB. Thats why you want to load up on RBs and WRs. You can get a decent QB later.

 

You can get MJD, Michael Turner, or Matt Forte. Go for 1 of those guys at #3 for sure. The Delta between them and the RBs that are left at your #21 pick is huge. If someone like Rivers or Rodgers is there with your 27th pick in the 3rd round. I would grab them there if you really like having a QB that has a shot to be a top 3 QB.

 

exactly my thinking. Originally I was thinking its a 6pt for passing TD league. but if QBs go 1 and 2, I would go with the best RB and maybe go WR/WR coming back. Go with favre and shaun hill at QB and stock up on the best WRs and RBs. you will dominate your league because you start 2 RBs and 3 WRs usually and 1 QB. who cares if the QB is the highest scoring player. If your opponent consistently outscores you at QB its by 5-10 pts a week on the average while you will crush him at WR and RB.

 

following the herd is the easiest way into fantasy oblivion.