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Why still no love from the Huddle for V-Jax?


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Probably because:

1. Alot of weapons on SD

2. Usually SD focuses on running the ball except for last year when there D was terrible and they had to pass to win games

3. Makes occasionally HUGE plays but other times disappears

 

 

I like him as a low end #2 high end #3

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I am very high on V-Jax this year but the huddle has him at #39 WR overall. Most other places I look have V-Jax at around 15 - 20 WR overall. No suspension so what is the low rank all about? I agree with almost all other player rankings.

ummm, opinions differ :wacko:

 

I am not as high on VJax as many others are either...for me a healthy LT, healthier Gates are main reasons also a healthy Chambers and the fact that VJax really relied on big plays to put up those numbers last year

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You posted the same question back in June

 

My reply then

 

Jackson caught 59 passes that ranked 33rd among all WR's. He just managed to catch some long passes to give him a really YPC. Even though Chambers and Gates both were injured and gave him more opportunities, Jackson only had 18 more catches than the previous year (41-623-3).

 

He had nine catches that accounted for 432 of his yards (all were 37 to 60 yards long) and a 48.0 YPC on those catches. He had 50 other catches for 666 (mark of the beast) yards and a 13.3 YPC. He either caught a bomb (or two in a couple of games) or he didn't fare that well. Half of his games had less than 60 yards.

 

I am always leery of relying on a guy who mostly gets his stats from catching a bomb like he did in seven games last year. It will be interesting to see and it is encouraging seeing him get chemistry with Rivers. He just needs to be more of a possession - higher volume of catches - kind of guy and LT and Gates get in the way of that.

 

Also injuries to Chambers, Gates and Tomlinson was a reason for his increase in catches (though only 18). They are healthy this year. If you like Jackson, it's fine to take him. I just expect him to decline a bit this year.

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Projections are tough to criticize, especially with a tweener like VJax who needs to put up or shut up this season.

 

WIth that being said, I think you're on the wrong side of probability/calculated-risk by ranking VJax any lower than a #2 WR. Chambers is on the downside of his career. Yeah, I know WRs can be productive well into their 30s, but Chambers (31) has only posted 1,000 yards ONCE in his career. He is a perenial under-achiever who was always on the cusp of WR #1 but could never muster it up. He has been the little engine that couldn't.

 

VJax on the other hand is on the upside of his career, being 26 and only 4 years in the league (this will be his 5th). He is a very good athlete who plays with a chip on his shoulder who has shown impressive hands and speed. He has consistently increased production each year as a starter, last season topping 1,000 yards. It's also obvious that either Norv or Rivers (maybe both) strongly prefer throwing to WRs rather than utilizing the best TE in the NFL. It seems like Rivers also passed on many opportunities throwing check downs to L.T., prefering to look for his WRs downfield.

 

All of this information tells me that it's wiser to predict VJax exceeding last yeasr's production and having that 'breakout' season rather than betting against him. Ranking VJax lower than top 20 is failing to 'prognosticate' and instead is only 'replicating' previous production. This game of FF is all about who can accurately 'prognosticate'.

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Quick research (ignoring injuries, QBs, mid-season firings, and other circumstances) of the teams Norv Turner was OC or HC for and top 3 pass catchers of each team:

 

1991 DAL -- WR Irvin (93), TE Novacek (59), RB Smith (49)

1992 DAL -- WR Irvin (78), TE Novacek (68), RB Smith (59)

1993 DAL -- WR Irvin (88), RB Smith (57), FB Johnston (50)

1994 WAS -- WR Ellard (74), RB Ervins (51), WR Howard (40)

1995 WAS -- WR Ellard (56), RB Mitchell (38), WR Westbrook (34)

1996 WAS -- WR Ellard (52), TE Asher (42), WR Westbrook (34)

1997 WAS -- TE Ashard (49), RB Mitchell (36), WR Westbrook (34)/FB Bowie (34)

1998 WAS -- RB Mitchell (44)/WR Westbrook (44), WR Shepherd (43), TE Alexander (37)

1999 WAS -- FB Centers (69), WR Westbrook (65), WR Connell (62)

2000 WAS -- FB Centers (81), WR Thrash (50), TE Alexander(47)

2001 SDC -- WR Conway (71), RB Tomlinson (54), WR Graham (52)

2002 MIA -- WR Chambers (52), RB Williams (47), TE McMichael (39)

2003 MIA -- WR Chambers (64), RB Williams (50), TE McMichael (49)

2004 OAK -- WR Porter (64), WR Curry (50), RB Zereoue (39)

2005 OAK -- WR Porter (76), RB Jordan (70), WR Moss (60)

2006 SF -- RB Gore (61), WR Battle (59), WR Bryant (40)

2007 SDC -- TE Gates (75), RB Tomlinson (60), WR Jackson (41)

2008 SDC -- TE Gates (60), WR Jackson (59), RB Tomlinson (52)

 

This shows me that under Turner, the #1WR gets his catches (#1 in receptions 11 of 18 seasons), a RB gets his catches (17 of 18 seasons), usually the main guy unless he can't catch, in which case another RB on the roster steps it up (Mitchell/Centers), and the TE is represented (10 of 18 seasons) unless there is no good TE on the roster, the good TE is injured, or the team has two good WRs. In almost every case, three guys share the bulk of the catches (50-60%) and the rest of the team divvies up the rest.

 

In a generic Norv Turner offense, you can pencil in a RB to be around 50 catches, and the decent/good TEs are around 60. The top WRs are 60+. Looking at the two year trend of 2007-2008, and if Norv believes that Jackson is his #1, I can see a pretty compelling argument that Jackson is gonna eat into Gates' and Tomlinson's catches, and not vice-versa.

 

I'm not even trying to get into TD catches (I think they're WAY harder to predict). Jackson has a great chance to lead his team in receptions this year (if barely), but I can't imagine Gates not having the most receiving TDs.

 

In my mind, the bigger thing to watch is if Tomlinson is still used as a pass catcher, or if Sproles starts to take some of that work from him (not saying it will happen, but that it could happen). The Chargers don't have a pass catching fullback on the roster, and Sproles has great open field shiftiness, so I'm assuming he'd be the guy-- plus Turner used Mitchell, a return specialist, as a pass-catching RB before. It's possible we could see Sproles be the Mitchell/Centers to Tomlinson's Allen/Davis if LT loses any quickness in the open field.

Edited by Deathpig
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Rivers has improved every year since coming into the league and so has V-Jax. There is no reason why he won't again this year and post solid WR2 numbers. I'm confident he should get 65-75 catches with around 1,100 yards and 7-10 TD's. I gotta disagree big time with the huddle's projections on this guy. Let's just see how the season shakes out.....

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Quick research (ignoring injuries, QBs, mid-season firings, and other circumstances) of the teams Norv Turner was OC or HC for and top 3 pass catchers of each team:

 

1991 DAL -- WR Irvin (93), TE Novacek (59), RB Smith (49)

1992 DAL -- WR Irvin (78), TE Novacek (68), RB Smith (59)

1993 DAL -- WR Irvin (88), RB Smith (57), FB Johnston (50)

1994 WAS -- WR Ellard (74), RB Ervins (51), WR Howard (40)

1995 WAS -- WR Ellard (56), RB Mitchell (38), WR Westbrook (34)

1996 WAS -- WR Ellard (52), TE Asher (42), WR Westbrook (34)

1997 WAS -- TE Ashard (49), RB Mitchell (36), WR Westbrook (34)/FB Bowie (34)

1998 WAS -- RB Mitchell (44)/WR Westbrook (44), WR Shepherd (43), TE Alexander (37)

1999 WAS -- FB Centers (69), WR Westbrook (65), WR Connell (62)

2000 WAS -- FB Centers (81), WR Thrash (50), TE Alexander(47)

2001 SDC -- WR Conway (71), RB Tomlinson (54), WR Graham (52)

2002 MIA -- WR Chambers (52), RB Williams (47), TE McMichael (39)

2003 MIA -- WR Chambers (64), RB Williams (50), TE McMichael (49)

2004 OAK -- WR Porter (64), WR Curry (50), RB Zereoue (39)

2005 OAK -- WR Porter (76), RB Jordan (70), WR Moss (60)

2006 SF -- RB Gore (61), WR Battle (59), WR Bryant (40)

2007 SDC -- TE Gates (75), RB Tomlinson (60), WR Jackson (41)

2008 SDC -- TE Gates (60), WR Jackson (59), RB Tomlinson (52)

 

This shows me that under Turner, the #1WR gets his catches (#1 in receptions 11 of 18 seasons), a RB gets his catches (17 of 18 seasons), usually the main guy unless he can't catch, in which case another RB on the roster steps it up (Mitchell/Centers), and the TE is represented (10 of 18 seasons) unless there is no good TE on the roster, the good TE is injured, or the team has two good WRs. In almost every case, three guys share the bulk of the catches (50-60%) and the rest of the team divvies up the rest.

 

In a generic Norv Turner offense, you can pencil in a RB to be around 50 catches, and the decent/good TEs are around 60. The top WRs are 60+. Looking at the two year trend of 2007-2008, and if Norv believes that Jackson is his #1, I can see a pretty compelling argument that Jackson is gonna eat into Gates' and Tomlinson's catches, and not vice-versa.

 

I'm not even trying to get into TD catches (I think they're WAY harder to predict). Jackson has a great chance to lead his team in receptions this year (if barely), but I can't imagine Gates not having the most receiving TDs.

 

In my mind, the bigger thing to watch is if Tomlinson is still used as a pass catcher, or if Sproles starts to take some of that work from him (not saying it will happen, but that it could happen). The Chargers don't have a pass catching fullback on the roster, and Sproles has great open field shiftiness, so I'm assuming he'd be the guy-- plus Turner used Mitchell, a return specialist, as a pass-catching RB before. It's possible we could see Sproles be the Mitchell/Centers to Tomlinson's Allen/Davis if LT loses any quickness in the open field.

 

While major kudos for putting in the work here, I would say that it is apples and oranges comparing Turner's past since he never had the best TE in the game other than in SD. I think Turner makes best use of the talent he has rather than put them into some mold he wants to create.

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While major kudos for putting in the work here, I would say that it is apples and oranges comparing Turner's past since he never had the best TE in the game other than in SD. I think Turner makes best use of the talent he has rather than put them into some mold he wants to create.

I'm not sure I agree with that. Since coming to SD, Gates has seen a 20% drop in receptions - and clearly Gates is the best receiving option (at least was the best receiving option) on that team. Ever since Norv has been at SD, I've been preaching that he just doesn't seem to utilize Gates the same way Shotty did and I think it's a major flaw in his approach. If it's not Norv then it's Rivers, I'm not sure who is the guilty party - but certainly, Gates should be the focal point of the passing game. When you have the best TE in the league, there's no excuse for getting him anything less than 85 receptions per year. I absolutely think Norv is one of the worst HCs in the NFL. I hate seeing such a great talent being under-used.

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I have to lean more toward DMD's side of this argument. v. jackson just isn't all that appealing to me. I mean, if I'm norv and I have gates, tomlinson, sproles and chambers on my team, getting jackson targets is sorta low down on my priority list. and as DMD has noted, he hasn't exactly shown much mettle as a possession type receiver. on the high end, it's hard to see him doing much more than he did last year. on the low end, he could easily just sort of disappear in that offense behind more potent weapons. in fantasy I see him as a pretty dull pick.

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I don't have a horse in the race, I just like to offer a differing opinion. :P

 

You can make an argument that Jackson will outperform last season in the number of receptions he gets. Will that translate into more yards and TDs? Heck if I know... that really depends on how much he outperforms and how 'lucky' he gets with deep strikes, and how much defenses actually respect him instead of focusing on (what are considered to be) the best TE and RB in football. I think Gates and Tomlinson owners should pray that Jackson does well because he'll really open up the short and intermediate stuff if he does.

 

I don't even have an issue with the Huddle's ranking of him, because I think that's a safe place given the uncertainty. If you feel good about him, then you'd move him up. If you don't, he's pretty much spot on.

 

I'm just giving some reasons why, if he does well this year, you shouldn't be surprised.

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I see Gates stealing balls from him, Tomlinson stealing balls from him, and Chambers catching at least 20 more than he did last year. Buster should catch a few more and so should Nanee and Floyd. The bottom line is that I don't think Jackson is talented enough to take that kind of jump to the next level. He doesn't run crisp routes and doesn't get off the ball cleanly. He does have good hands and has the abillity to catch the ball at his highest point, but with all the other options, I'm not sure the Chargers are going to need to gamble on the deep ball quite so often.

 

I think if everybody was healthy last year, Jackson would have had his customary 50 catches for 700 yards and a handful of TD's. He performed better last year out of necessity, not because he took a major step forward.

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You posted the same question back in June

 

My reply then

 

 

 

Also injuries to Chambers, Gates and Tomlinson was a reason for his increase in catches (though only 18). They are healthy this year. If you like Jackson, it's fine to take him. I just expect him to decline a bit this year.

 

that was before we learned no suspension. I thought he would move up quite a bit after we found out he would play 16 if healthy. So just was wondering why. Thanks to those sharing opinion.

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  • 4 weeks later...
Projections are tough to criticize, especially with a tweener like VJax who needs to put up or shut up this season.

 

WIth that being said, I think you're on the wrong side of probability/calculated-risk by ranking VJax any lower than a #2 WR. Chambers is on the downside of his career. Yeah, I know WRs can be productive well into their 30s, but Chambers (31) has only posted 1,000 yards ONCE in his career. He is a perenial under-achiever who was always on the cusp of WR #1 but could never muster it up. He has been the little engine that couldn't.

 

VJax on the other hand is on the upside of his career, being 26 and only 4 years in the league (this will be his 5th). He is a very good athlete who plays with a chip on his shoulder who has shown impressive hands and speed. He has consistently increased production each year as a starter, last season topping 1,000 yards. It's also obvious that either Norv or Rivers (maybe both) strongly prefer throwing to WRs rather than utilizing the best TE in the NFL. It seems like Rivers also passed on many opportunities throwing check downs to L.T., prefering to look for his WRs downfield.

 

All of this information tells me that it's wiser to predict VJax exceeding last yeasr's production and having that 'breakout' season rather than betting against him. Ranking VJax lower than top 20 is failing to 'prognosticate' and instead is only 'replicating' previous production. This game of FF is all about who can accurately 'prognosticate'.

So far, I'm right on Vjax (as expected). I'm still shocked at how many people thought he couldn't even crack the top 30 this year :wacko:

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  • 4 weeks later...

V-Jax has been coming along nicely since Rivers and Norv learned they can trust him with the game on the line. I expect him to increase his numbers every year. When he was an unknown it was because he just didn't get that many "looks" in game. All the love went to Gates or LT. Now that he has proven that he is a solid threat I see him turning into a must have next year. As for Chambers...Wow...All I can say is look for Floyd to take his spot anytime now...And I mean like yesterday. Chambers doesn't even catch balls thrown right at his chest any more.

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