Henry Muto Posted November 19, 2009 Share Posted November 19, 2009 In my 3 local leagues I run...I played vs Chris Johnson last week (and live to tell about it I won 84-71 thank you Brady and Moss!!!!) And now as luck has it I face off vs Johnson in both of my other leagues where I stand 5-5 and in a must win game. To make matters worse the dude in my dynasty league has both Peterson and Chris Johnson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted November 19, 2009 Share Posted November 19, 2009 Simple... just trade for Chris Johnson. Problem solved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted November 19, 2009 Share Posted November 19, 2009 haha... wowIt is a statistical term... which, by the average community college would be a math term... Straight from wikipedia... 5 common myths on the law of averages.. * Belief that an event is "due" to happen: For example, "The roulette wheel has landed on red three consecutive times. The law of averages says it's due to land on black!" Of course, the wheel has no memory and its probabilities do not change according to past results. So even if the wheel has landed on red 10 consecutive times the probability that the next roll will be black is still 48.6% (it would be exactly 50% if there were no green zero). Similarly, there is no statistical basis for the belief that a losing sports team is due to win a game or that lottery numbers which haven't appeared recently are due to appear soon. This sort of belief is called the gambler's fallacy. * Belief that a sample's average must equal its expected value. For example, if one flips a fair coin 100 times, there is only an 8% chance that there will be exactly 50 heads. * Belief that a rare occurrence will happen given enough time: For example, "If I send my résumé to enough places, the law of averages says that someone will eventually hire me." This may actually be true assuming nonzero probabilities and the law of averages is simply named in place of the Law of Large Numbers. * Belief that over time, statistics must accumulate to gradual even amount, regardless of the actual scenario. For example, the law of averages would expect that in a football league of ten teams, over a period time each team would gradually balance out to have the same amount of wins and losses, regardless of how skilled or how unskilled any one team might be. * Belief that Chris Johnson, over time, will have to have a bad game, because he has had two games above average the past two weeks. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages Your post just backed up my statement that in fact the 'law of averages' is not a math term. From your source (wikipedia): The law of averages is a lay term used to express a belief that outcomes of a random event shall "even out" within a small sample. As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a very large sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur. As stated above, it's a lay term used to express a belief. And my belief, stemmed from several years of fantasy football, is that players will revert to their mean. And in my opinion, the law of averages does have merit in the world of fantasy statistics. Also regarding your 'myths' above, or should I say Wikipedia's myths - the examples provided are mostly mathematical probabilities that aren't affected by as many variables as a football game and statistics related to football. So, in the case of Chris Johnson, unlike the roulette wheel, he actually has players that can and will vary their effort to prevent said stats. On a roulette wheel, other than using mental power, you cannot do anything physically to prevent the outcome. Bottom line, I'm not a scientist and neither are you. If you disagree with my logic, then back it up with a friendly wager. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustDoIt Posted November 19, 2009 Share Posted November 19, 2009 (edited) Your post just backed up my statement that in fact the 'law of averages' is not a math term. From your source (wikipedia): As stated above, it's a lay term used to express a belief. And my belief, stemmed from several years of fantasy football, is that players will revert to their mean. And in my opinion, the law of averages does have merit in the world of fantasy statistics. Also regarding your 'myths' above, or should I say Wikipedia's myths - the examples provided are mostly mathematical probabilities that aren't affected by as many variables as a football game and statistics related to football. So, in the case of Chris Johnson, unlike the roulette wheel, he actually has players that can and will vary their effort to prevent said stats. On a roulette wheel, other than using mental power, you cannot do anything physically to prevent the outcome. Bottom line, I'm not a scientist and neither are you. If you disagree with my logic, then back it up with a friendly wager. What kind of wager are we talking here? From your own response you say it is a mathematical concept. Just because it is a layman term does not mean that it is not a math concept. Edited November 19, 2009 by JustDoIt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdub! Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 All players usually revert to their mean. The law of averages suggest that CJ will have an off day - I'd actually be happy to face him this week (seriously). I'm willing to bet he reverts to his career mean - so we could set the over/under at 118 and 1TD and I'll take the under. Let me know if you want to play. I am with you on this one. I am playing against him in one league, and starting him in another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 It's discussions like this that make me hate the internet and wish you two guys could settle this with fisticuffs or duelling pistols. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 (edited) What kind of wager are we talking here? From your own response you say it is a mathematical concept. Just because it is a layman term does not mean that it is not a math concept. Whatever you prefer, name your price. I hope you noticed I am using his career avg which benefits you since his current season average is much better. In other words, using his career averages lowers the over/under and I'm taking the under. Wildcat - name your price as well. Do you guys have paypal? $20 each? Another caveat - do we take his career avg and calculate his fantasy points off those averages (ppr, TD, yardage...) - then use that fantasy score as the over under? Or do we say he has to meet both numbers (yardage and TDs) to win the bet? Edited November 20, 2009 by Brentastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cliaz Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 Straight from wikipedia... ...and that is how you lost all respectability in your argument But I love CJ's match up this week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 Whatever you prefer, name your price. I hope you noticed I am using his career avg which benefits you since his current season average is much better. In other words, using his career averages lowers the over/under and I'm taking the under. Wildcat - name your price as well. Do you guys have paypal? $20 each? Another caveat - do we take his career avg and calculate his fantasy points off those averages (ppr, TD, yardage...) - then use that fantasy score as the over under? Or do we say he has to meet both numbers (yardage and TDs) to win the bet? Wildcat and JustDoIt - are we gonna do this or what? Still waiting for bet confirmation and consensus on how we will determine winner (fantasy points or must meet both criteria of yards and TD). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 (edited) Law of averages is not really a math term, genius. What I mean by it, however, is that CJ cannot and will not continue the pace he has set the last 3 or so games - he's 'due' to have a few off games and I'm willing to bet this week will be an off game. If you want to place a friendly wager, let's do so. Currently, his average average this year is 150 yards (rushing/receiving combined) and 1 TD per game. For his career, his average is 118.38 all purpose yards and .79 TD per game - rounded, that would be 118/1 per game. I'm willing to bet he reverts to his career mean - so we could set the over/under at 118 and 1TD and I'll take the under. Let me know if you want to play. Brent- just seeing the follow up post. let's bet $20 on your post here of his avg - 118 & 1 td. Do you want to bet $20 on the yds AND TD? or a combo of the 2? rounding up to 1 TD is a good way of evening the bet out a bit. So, $20 each on o/u of 118yds and 1 TD? I don't do paypal but pretty simple sending a check Edited November 20, 2009 by wildcat2334 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brg88tx Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 Brent- just seeing the follow up post. let's bet $20 on your post here of his avg - 118 & 1 td. Do you want to bet $20 on the yds AND TD? or a combo of the 2? rounding up to 1 TD is a good way of evening the bet out a bit. So, $20 each on o/u of 118yds and 1 TD? I don't do paypal but pretty simple sending a check houston's run D has been pretty stout the last few weeks. they'll keep him under 100 yards imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 houston's run D has been pretty stout the last few weeks. they'll keep him under 100 yards imo. talking total yards here my man.............. that is why it is gambling, but do you really want to bet against CJ right now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChronikCraig Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 I face him and Ricky Williams this week. Needless to way Williams put up 32 points yesterday, fml. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 (edited) Brent- just seeing the follow up post. let's bet $20 on your post here of his avg - 118 & 1 td. Do you want to bet $20 on the yds AND TD? or a combo of the 2? rounding up to 1 TD is a good way of evening the bet out a bit. So, $20 each on o/u of 118yds and 1 TD? I don't do paypal but pretty simple sending a check So to clarify, we have 2 bets of $20? The first bet is an over/under of 118 total yards and the other bet is an over/under of 1TD? Both of which I'm taking the under and you're taking the over. I'm good with this if you are. Please confirm this is correct to 'seal the deal'. As of now, JustDoIt is not involved in this bet until he confirms and I confirm his confirmation. In other words, if he jumps in here and confirms at the last minute but I don't see it and confirm his confirmation, no bet. Dig? E2A: Clarification on the bet structure. Edited November 20, 2009 by Brentastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 So to clarify, we have 2 bets of $20? The first bet is an over/under of 118 total yards and the other bet is an over/under of 1TD? Both of which I'm taking the under and you're taking the over. I'm good with this if you are. Please confirm this is correct to 'seal the deal'. As of now, JustDoIt is not involved in this bet until he confirms and I confirm his confirmation. In other words, if he jumps in here and confirms at the last minute but I don't see it and confirm his confirmation, no bet. Dig? E2A: Clarification on the bet structure. book it - done. $20o/u 118 total yds and $20 o/u 1 TD. I gots the over on both Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 book it - done. $20o/u 118 total yds and $20 o/u 1 TD. I gots the over on both This is a done deal! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustDoIt Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 Back... Okay... so if he gets no TD's are you saying that bet is even? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
URLACHERisGOD Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 I faced the owner with Chris Johnson and ADP last week in one of my leagues and slapped him around. I ain't skeerd of no Chris Johnson! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cunning Runt Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 I'm not in this bet, but was strongly considering it. Had I, I would've stipulated that 120yds +1 TD = 18 fantasy points in my league and that I was taking the over on the 18 fantasy points which also includes receiving yds plus PPR. I quantify things in terms of fantasy production which is what matters most to me. Just sayin'... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 Back... Okay... so if he gets no TD's are you saying that bet is even? We're saying this: So to clarify, we have 2 bets of $20? The first bet is an over/under of 118 total yards and the other bet is an over/under of 1TD? Both of which I'm taking the under and you're taking the over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 I'm not in this bet, but was strongly considering it. Had I, I would've stipulated that 120yds +1 TD = 18 fantasy points in my league and that I was taking the over on the 18 fantasy points which also includes receiving yds plus PPR. I quantify things in terms of fantasy production which is what matters most to me. Just sayin'... That's how I would have preferred it, although I would have included his avg receptions per game etc... But I was good either way - I really believe he is going to get held in check. If not, I guess I will be out some coin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustDoIt Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 That's how I would have preferred it, although I would have included his avg receptions per game etc... But I was good either way - I really believe he is going to get held in check. If not, I guess I will be out some coin. I am sorry, I said that wrong. If he gets 1 TD and 100 yards... You would win for the 100 yards... and the TD bet would be even? Am I understanding this correctly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BumpNRun Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 Giggle.....Giggle.... Own Johnson, Rice, Addai, McCoy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted November 21, 2009 Share Posted November 21, 2009 (edited) I am sorry, I said that wrong. If he gets 1 TD and 100 yards... You would win for the 100 yards... and the TD bet would be even? Am I understanding this correctly? That is correct. I'm also not opposed to figuring his fantasy score using his average and making that the over/under. The below data may come out all goofy as far as alignment: Category Actual Stats Fantasy Points Avg (24 games) Rush Yards 2319 231.9 9.6625 Receive Yards 522 52.2 2.175 TD 19 114 4.75 Receptions 73 73 3.042 Fantasy Points per Game 19.62916667 So if you choose this method, the over/under is the fantasy points per game above (19.63) - I got the under and you would have the over. Wildcat - I'm not opposed to switching it to this method with you as well, just let me know soon and make sure we have double confirmation. Edited November 21, 2009 by Brentastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rovers Posted November 21, 2009 Share Posted November 21, 2009 My problem with Johnson this week is a bit different. Not a WDIS... LOL... in one league that defenses are very important in (negative 3 for offensive and ST's TD's given up) along with minus points for yardage given up. I can live with Johnson getting 200 yards and a TD as long as the rest of the Titans offense is flat. I have to start the Houston D, or the Jets in NE. And it's a doubleheader week to boot. Johnson has really turned things upside down this year. Kid is a beast. His potential to blow up goes even beyond whether ot not you have to face him, it even plays into defensive team start decisions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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