Question about projections

[Chadman]

While I'm sure the individual player matchups against the quality of defense are a big part of the weekly projections, I guess I'm curious which way the experts lean when facing a close call between players. This probably qualifies as minutia, and maybe overkill, but I recently traded for Tony Gonzalez to give myself one really good TE option each week down the strech along with Winslow, Jr. The schedule works pretty well, with one of the two usually matched up against a weak defense against TE's. Simple enough... but...

 

Now with Turner being injured, I don't know what to make of the Gonzalez situation. New Orleans is ranked #6 against TE's, meaning a rougher than usual go against for Winslow. And Gonzalez has a better matchup against a more generous (to TE's) defense in the Giants. I don't know how to process the renewed Winslow excitement with Freeman at QB, the Gonzalez situation with Turner out, and all the info thrown in.

 

Clear as mud? This is not really a WDIS scenario, as I'm good this week either way. I guess it's more of a theory and perspective thing, from the masters that do the weekly projections. Care to shed any thoughts on that?

[Chadman]

Hmm, none of the experts care to comment? Not worth a passing thought for anyone? I'd be curious how everyone makes a tough decision like this, but still wondering how much the matchups against the players are factored in, compared to the quality of the individual player.

[LosGatosEnFuegos]

Well this is probably more information than you ever wanted, but you asked for it.

 

You need to give different weight to the matchup based on position, situation, etc. For example, I give a lot of weight for team defense matchups. TE, however, doesn't jibe well with playing matchups. There are TEs who consistently put up numbers, and there are TEs who don't. Some teams play more of these TEs. That's the major basis of the rank against TEs, which may be misleading when viewed without the proper context.

 

You mention that NO is ranked 6th against TEs and that NYG is ranked poorly. This is largely because NYG face better TEs. Here are the TEs NYG have faced with their ranking amongst TEs in a standard PPR league:

 

1 - C. Cooley [18]

2 - J. Witten [11]

3 - K. Winslow [7]

4 - S. Ryan [31]

5 - Z. Miller [15]

6 - J. Shockey [10]

7 - B. Patrick [43]

8 - B. Celek [3]

9 - A. Gates [4]

 

Big names in the tight end world. Now let's see who the Saints have faced:

 

1 - C. Fitzsimmons [50]

2 - B. Celek [3]

3 - D. Fine [55]

4 - D. Keller [16]

5 - K. Boss [20]

6 - A. Fasano [37]

7 - T. Gonzalez [6]

8 - G. Barnidge [39]

9 - R. McMichael [27]

 

With the exception of Celek and Gonzalez, they haven't faced any strong TEs. Maybe Keller.

 

There are a lot of factors involved with TE scoring. A lot of teams barely use them as receivers. Some are used but suck. Some are receiving beasts. A team's ranking against TEs depends strongly on how many beasts they face and how many games they have where the TE is barely involved. NYG have faced 4 TEs in the top 10 and only 2 outside the top 20. NO has faced 2 in the top ten and 5 outside the top 20 (plus the 20th ranked TE).

 

So the oft invoked acronym ASYS applies very strongly for tight ends. ASYSTE.

[LosGatosEnFuegos]

Now, even though this isn't a WDIS thread:

 

For your situation, in standard PPR scoring, Winslow and Gonzo both have exactly 118.1 pts on the year. So consider some other information.

 

For one, Gonzo had a good week against the Saints. Winslow had a bad day against the Giants.

 

Secondly, TB will be playing from behind all day, so they'll need the passing game. However, this doesn't really matter because the TB is always playing from behind. This is a push as far as matchups go.

 

ATL is facing a tougher matchup than usual. The only time they've been handicapped with a bigger spread was against NO. They'll want to lean on their solid players. The fact that Turner is out means they'll take to the air more than in the past. This is a plus for Gonzo.

 

I need to go out, otherwise I'd give you some more info, but based on this brief analysis, I'd lean toward Gonzo.

 

Good luck.

[DMD]

While I'm sure the individual player matchups against the quality of defense are a big part of the weekly projections, I guess I'm curious which way the experts lean when facing a close call between players. This probably qualifies as minutia, and maybe overkill, but I recently traded for Tony Gonzalez to give myself one really good TE option each week down the strech along with Winslow, Jr. The schedule works pretty well, with one of the two usually matched up against a weak defense against TE's. Simple enough... but...

 

Now with Turner being injured, I don't know what to make of the Gonzalez situation. New Orleans is ranked #6 against TE's, meaning a rougher than usual go against for Winslow. And Gonzalez has a better matchup against a more generous (to TE's) defense in the Giants. I don't know how to process the renewed Winslow excitement with Freeman at QB, the Gonzalez situation with Turner out, and all the info thrown in.

 

Clear as mud? This is not really a WDIS scenario, as I'm good this week either way. I guess it's more of a theory and perspective thing, from the masters that do the weekly projections. Care to shed any thoughts on that?

 

I did not answer initially because I am not sure what is asked. I do the projections for the site but when it comes to starting my own players on my own teams I refer to them only occasionally because I already did them and know what I said. If I had projected the same thing for two of my players, it would then be all about the risk I felt each player had to reach those projections, what sort of upside beyond "the most likely case: would be as well as what could make the projections not happen as expected.

 

That is the problem with hard number projections, they do not include anything about the risk and reward involved, the confidence level associated with each individuals performance, etc. That is why I would prefer that people would read all the game pages instead of just looking at hard numbers.

 

The better the player, the less impact the matchup has. Home is better than the road. I would just do like most any of you probably do.

[Chadman]

Thanks for the time consuming, and complete responses, very interesting to think about, and DMD, I understand my question was a little um, hard to understand. I appreciate the thought. Los Gatos was on the money in fully explaining things, which as always leaves me back where I started...

 

But really, it did reaffirm my thinking, in reading your guys thoughts and logic. The base numbers can be a bit misleading, and are of course, only a guide.

 

Nice to see I had Gonzalez plugged in for some of the reasons you mentioned, and will help me moving forward in valuing close players in the future.