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***Official Week 12 NFL Wagering Thread***


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Week 12 Lines:

Packers -11 @ Lions 47.5

Raiders +13.5 @ Cowboys 40

Giants -6.5 @ Denver 42

Colts -3.5 @ Texans 48

Browns +14 @ Bengals 38.5

Bears +10.5 @ Vikings 46.5

Redskins +9 @ Eagles 41

Dolphins -3 @ Bills 39.5

Cardinals +1.5 @ Titans 47

Seahawks -3 @ Rams 42.5

Bucs +12 @ Falcons 46

Panthers +3 @ Jets 41.5

Jaguars +3 @ 49ers 41.5

Chiefs +13.5 @ Chargers 45

Steelers +2.5 @ Ravens 39.5

Patriots +2.5 @ Saints 56

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First of all, happy Thanksgiving everyone! Here's what I'm thinking about tomorrow:


* Raiders/Cowboys UNDER 40


Despite Gradkowski leading the Raiders to a rare win and putting 20 points up on the board against the Bengals last week, by no means do I believe that the Raiders' offensive woes are fixed. The Bengals shot themselves in the foot with a couple of turnovers, and the defense clearly was not playing with the same intensity as they had been all year. I expect to see a much better effort out of the Dallas defense on Thursday, as they should be fired up playing at home on Thanksgiving.


Feeling confident that we won't see much scoring out of Oakland, the question we're left with is how the Dallas offense will perform after two games of struggling. Although Dallas has been good at moving the ball down the field all season, they haven't excelled in turning their yardage into points. Oakland's defense falls into a similar category, you can move the ball on them, but they do a decent job of forcing opponents into field goals. I expect this to continue tomorrow, and for Dallas to come away with field goals just as much as touchdowns, keeping their scoring total down a bit. Also, given the fact that Witten may not play, and Romo is still banged up, the Dallas offense certainly could be at a bit of a disadvantage. With all of those factors, I like this to stay a bit lower scoring of a game, with a final along the lines of 24-10 Dallas.


Good luck to everyone who bets on any games tomorrow, everyone have a great Thanksgiving!

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Got the week off to a good start with a win on Thanksgiving, hopefully we can close this week out with some solid plays to make it a very profitable week. I've got a few plays I'm really confident in, so hopefully these will come through for us. Here's what I like this weekend:


* New York Jets -3

* Jets/Panthers UNDER 41.5


Although my system does not back these plays, I've got a very high level of confidence in them. I know that the Jets have been struggling lately, but this just isn't a good match-up for Carolina. First of all, we've got Revis covering Steve Smith, the only reliable target through the air for Delhomme. 25% of his completions have gone to Smith, with 50% of his touchdown throws going to him as well. Revis has already shut down Marques Colston, Randy Moss, and Andre Johnson this year, so I have to believe that he will make it very difficult for Delhomme to get the ball to his favorite target. Since the Panthers will struggle moving the ball through the air, they'll likely turn to their ground game and spend the game hammering the ball with their running backs. The Jets, however, have had a very good run defense so far this year, even recently in their struggles. In their last 6 games (They're 1-6 over this span), they're still only allowing 3.93 yards/rush attempt, which is 6th best in the league. Therefore, I've got to believe that they'll do a decent job limiting the damage that Carolina can do on the ground, making it very difficult for the Panthers to get points.


On offense, it's no secret that the Jets have struggled lately, mostly due to Sanchez's inability to take care of the ball. Rex Ryan has spent the week working with Sanchez on his ball security, but despite this fact I doubt they'll let him throw too much in this contest. Carolina's pass defense is 9th best in the league, so the Jets will likely also choose to fight their battle on the ground. The Jets are the 6th best rushing offense in the league, and going against the 6th worst rushing defense in the league a bit of a mismatch seems to exist. The Jets should be able to use their running game to set up the pass, and I look for Sanchez to have a much better game and turn the ball over no more than one time. I expect this game to stay lower scoring, with the Jets' offense finding yards and points much easier than the Panthers'. I expect a final score in the neighborhood of 23-13 Jets.


* New Orleans Saints -1.5


I remain stubborn in my opinion that all is not well on the New England offense. Their struggle all year has been finishing drives, and against a team like the Saints I don't expect them to be able to get away with this flaw. This year (Discounting the Titans game, in which Tennessee clearly wasn't interested in playing), the Patriots have scored 23 offensive touchdowns to 19 field goals. This means that only 55% of the Patriots' scoring drives have been touchdowns, the 9th worst percentage in the league. Also, the Saints have proven to have a very capable pass defense, which ranks 6th best in the league at yards/pass attempt allowed. I expect them to dial up the pressure and throw Brady off of his game a bit, again limiting the Patriots' scoring opportunities a bit.


The Saints however, have been excellent at scoring all year as everyone knows. The Saints continue to have the best passing offense, fifth best rushing offense, and best scoring efficiency in the league. The Patriots defense is middle of the pack in both rushing and passing defense, and allow 68% of scoring drives on them to end in touchdowns, the 8th worst percentage in the league. So, it looks like the pieces are all in place for the Saints to have yet another big offensive night. As I've said before, the Saints are one of the few teams in the NFL that appear to still have a large home-field advantage, and I expect that to only help on Monday night against the Patriots. Saints should win this game by a touchdown at least, something like 38-27.


* Miami -3


This game looks a bit like a trap and the public is all over it, but sometimes the public is right and I think this is one of those cases. We again have the setup of a poor rushing defense going against the wildcat offense, which Ricky Williams has excelled in so far. Miami's offense is still rushing for about 4.7 yards per carry, 6th best in the NFL. This is enough for them to overcome a mediocre passing game, which always manages to do just enough.


Buffalo's offense is still a mess, Owens' long touchdown last week could be attributed to a bit of a fluke as Jacksonville was missing a key corner. Miami's big defensive liability is the pass, which actually has been better of late. Even if they don't show up, Buffalo's passing offense is still below average, so I don't expect a lot of firepower out of them. Miami knows they have to show up this week if they want any hope at making the playoffs, I expect them to do just that as they win this one by a touchdown.


That's it for this week everyone, good luck this week!

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I've got three early game teasers:


6 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Falcons(Atlanta) -6

WAS/PHI Under 46.5


6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Bengals(Cincinnati) -6.5

Dolphins(Miami) +3.5

Rams(StLouis) +10.5


7 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

Colts(Indianapolis) +3.5

Jets(NewYork) +3.5

Eagles(Philadelphia) -2.5


And a money line parlay:


Parlay (5 Teams)

Vikings(Minnesota) -500

Bengals(Cincinnati) -650

Falcons(Atlanta) -600

Chargers(SanDiego) -750

Eagles(Philadelphia) -450

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MIA -3 Miami showed that they can still run the ball without Ronnie Brown and I expect them to do just that today....


CIN -14 Lay down the points...This isnt the det lions defense....I expect Cleveland to come out and be the same pathetic offense they've been the whole season...I expect the bengals to win in a 34-7 type of game.


Player prop:


Steven Jackson - Over 25 1/2 recieving yards.

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MIA -3 Miami showed that they can still run the ball without Ronnie Brown and I expect them to do just that today....


CIN -14 Lay down the points...This isnt the det lions defense....I expect Cleveland to come out and be the same pathetic offense they've been the whole season...I expect the bengals to win in a 34-7 type of game.


Player prop:


Steven Jackson - Over 25 1/2 recieving yards.

I agree with you on both of these... I'm joining you with:


MIA -3.5

CIN -12

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I'm also taking TEN -3 due to the fact that Warner is now "likely not to play." I was leaning towards Tennessee in this game before this was announced... If he doesn't play, I think the Titans win by double digits.

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Three teasers for the non-early games:


I think the Monday night game will be high-scoring enough that at least one team will be in the 30's, and I like New England's chances of keeping it within a TD....


6 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Patriots(NewEngland) +7.5

Over 50.5


Pittsburgh is missing their QB on both sides of the ball... They are a totally different team without Troy, but without Big Ben as well, I see no way they keep this close. Wasn't sure which way to go with the O/U, but I like Over 28 more than Under 40. Lewis and Reed are banged up (but should play)... if Pittsburgh can manage at least 10 points, I think 28 is a safe number.


6 Point Teaser (2 Teams)

Ravens(Baltimore) -2

Over 28


Contests between these two have historically been high-scoring. I have conservatively underestimated Minnesota's defense a couple of times this year, thinking they would play down to the level of the competition and allow mediocre teams to stay with them. That said, the Vikings are still missing Winfield in the secondary, and I think Cutler will find enough holes in the defense to manage a couple of scores. I like a 27-17 type of game, probably in the Vikings favor. If Peterson's ankle is a problem, though, I could see this going either way, which is why I'm sticking to the total and not the line.


I think KC will be able to score some points, even if they are garbage points, against the Chargers. Meanwhile, San Diego should be good for 3-4 TD's in this game. I'm thinking 34-14 San Diego.


The JAC/SF game is another one that I could see going either way, in terms of both the total and who wins the game. I think it should be close, with both teams scoring at least two TD's, and probably a couple of FG's mixed in as well. I'm thinking 23-20, one way or the other.


6 Point Teaser (3 Teams)

CHI/MIN Over 41

KC/SD Over 39

JAC/SF Over 36.5


Good luck, everybody.

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