kroyrunner89 Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 (edited) Week 13 Lines: Jets -3 @ Bills 36.5 Broncos -4.5 @ Chiefs 38 Raiders +13.5 @ Steelers 37.5 Texans PK @ Jaguars 46.5 Titans +6.5 @ Colts 47 Eagles -5.5 @ Falcons 44 Lions +13 @ Bengals 42 Saints -9.5 @ Redskins 48 Bucs +6.5 @ Panthers 40 Rams +9 @ Bears 41 Chargers -13 @ Browns 43 49ers PK @ Seahawks 41.5 Vikings -4 @ Cardinals 48.5 Cowboys -2 @ Giants 45.5 Patriots -5 @ Dolphins 46.5 Ravens +3 @ Packers 43.5 Good luck this week everyone! Edited December 3, 2009 by kroyrunner89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kroyrunner89 Posted December 3, 2009 Author Share Posted December 3, 2009 My goodness this thread is dead. It's been predicted for weeks and it might have finally happened! Well, I'll get the ball rolling. Jets -3 and the Under are what I'm liking for tomorrow night. I'll post up write ups tomorrow assuming I keep both plays Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Do Work Son Posted December 3, 2009 Share Posted December 3, 2009 My goodness this thread is dead. It's been predicted for weeks and it might have finally happened! Well, I'll get the ball rolling. Jets -3 and the Under are what I'm liking for tomorrow night. I'll post up write ups tomorrow assuming I keep both plays If I had to pick I think I would go Jets -3, but I dont know if im that confident to place a bet... I agree with you on the under 100%....this game has a 17-13 type feel to it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMikeinNY Posted December 3, 2009 Share Posted December 3, 2009 Cincy/Detroit over 42. I would go double or nothing on my carrot cake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kroyrunner89 Posted December 3, 2009 Author Share Posted December 3, 2009 I've decided on releasing two Thursday Night plays for the first time this season, but with good reason. I'm very confident in both of these plays, as long as the Jets show up these should win no problem. Here's what I'm thinking for tonight: * New York Jets -3 * Jets/Bills UNDER 37 To begin, let's note that this game is in Canada and not Buffalo's true home stadium. The past two weeks, the Bills have looked like a different team as Fitzpatrick has thrown for 583 yards (291.5 y/gm). However, there are some factors that need to be taken into account. First of all, these games have been against the Jaguars and Dolphins, the 3rd and 9th worst pass defenses in the NFL. Secondly, this week the Bills find themselves against the Jets, the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL. Over those two games, Terrell Owens has experienced a resurgence, as he has accounted for 293 yards receiving, over half of Fitzpatrick's total yardage. This week, he faces Revis, who we've all become familiar with as the best corner in the NFL. After shutting down Steve Smith last week (1 catch for 5 yards), Revis should have no problem with the slower Owens. Sure Owens has size, but so did Randy Moss and Andre Johnson, and Revis took care of them as well. Not to mention that in their first meeting Revis held him to just 13 yards receiving. When you also consider that Buffalo's rush offense is 19th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and that they're going against the 6th best rushing defense in the NFL, I just can't see how this offense will move the ball at all. Their best offense might be their defense, as they'll have to hope that Mark Sanchez turns the ball over multiple times as he did in their first meeting, which is always a possibility. I don't think that this will happen though, as the Jets will take advantage of the fact that the Bills have the 2nd worst rushing defense in the NFL, and keep the majority of their offense to the ground. I think the Jets will have some time consuming drives, while the Bills will simply not get many opportunities and struggle when they do. I'd be shocked if the Bills topped 13 points in this one, as the Jets might even flirt with shutting their offense out. I see the Jets winning comfortably, along the lines of 20-6. Good luck to those of you who decide to make a wager tonight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 I was already thinking along the same lines Kroy - nice parlay hit to start the week. Now, lets see if I can keep from pissing away my winnings over the next 3 days!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted December 6, 2009 Share Posted December 6, 2009 (edited) Plays I like: TEN +7 (Tennessee is hot, and sooner or later the Colts have to drop one. I could see Tennessee winning this one outright and feel good about +7) DAL/NYG under 45 1/2 (Eli is hurt and struggling, Romo on the road struggles, weather might be iffy) NO/WAS under 47 (The Saints are a different team on the road, and it'll be cold and possibly crappy out in Washington) Considering: DET + 13.5 Anyone else tempted to take the Lions +13 1/2 at Cincinnati? With the exception of the one game against the Bears, Cincy hasn't really run away from anyone. I know these are the Lions, but it just feels like they'll hang around and cover. The Bengals didn't exactly destroy Cleveland last week at home, and the Lions have a better offense (but probably a worse defense if that's possible). ETA: Washington has only played in one game that's gone over 47 total points this year. If this game was in New Orleans, I'd feel differently though. Easy to imagine a let down from the Saints after the way they destroyed the Patriots last week... Edited December 6, 2009 by MTSuper7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kroyrunner89 Posted December 6, 2009 Author Share Posted December 6, 2009 We've benefited from winning Thursdays a few weeks in a row now, and like previous weeks I'm hoping to continue the momentum. I feel like this weekend is a bit tougher than most, but I've still come up with a few plays that I feel pretty good about. Here's what I like this weekend: * Tennessee Titans +6.5 It feels like almost everybody is on this play already, which as I mentioned last week in my Dolphins play always worries me a bit. However, I simply can't ignore the recent level of play by the Titans. Vince Young has revitalized the offense, Tennessee is throwing for 7.39 yards/pass attempt and rushing for 5.5 yards/carry, 4th and 1st best in the NFL. On defense, their rushing defense has been a bit of a problem, however the Colts have the 9th worst rushing offense in the NFL so I expect that this won't be a huge issue. The key I see here is the Titans' pass defense. They've played much better of late, as the unit is starting to get healthy and they've been the 5th best defense in the NFL in terms of passing yards per attempt allowed. This is a much different Titans team than the Colts saw earlier this season, and I don't think that Tennessee will repeat the mistake of giving Johnson the ball only 9 times. I don't think the Colts' defense will be able to shut Tennessee's offense down, and that the Titans will be able to slow the Indy offense just enough to give themselves a chance to win this game. I'll take the points and hope the Titans get the job done. * Washington Redskins +9.5 After an impressive Monday Night win over the Patriots, I think this is an obvious letdown spot for the Saints. After their last Monday Night victory over the Panthers they showed some signs of letting down, before the Panthers handed them the game and they won by 10. I think that they'll struggle even a little more in this spot, especially because the game is on the road. Another factor to take into consideration in this one is that Washington has the 4th best pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 5.48 yards/pass attempt. The only other opponent that the Saints have played that was ranked top 8 in pass defense was the Jets, and they held the Saints to 10 offensive points. Buffalo, the 9th ranked pass defense, also held Brees in check and limited the Saints to 27 points, their second lowest point total of the year. So, given the facts that Washington is strong against the pass and this is a letdown spot, I think the Saints will likely be held under 30 points. So, given that I feel the Saints' offense may struggle a bit, the question becomes how effectively the Redskins can keep up on the scoreboard. Two of Washington's last three games they've topped 21 points, and I'm starting to think that their offense may be coming together. The Saints will also be without 4 defensive players on Sunday, and I think the letdown from Monday Night will be even more apparent on the defensive side of the ball. The Redskins should be able to put some solid drives together and make a game of this one, as they'll probably try to attack the Saints on the ground all game, and succeed. Again, I'll take the points and hope that the Redskins come ready to play. That's all I'm going to release for now, I'm strongly considering Panthers -5, but I need to wait to hear if DeAngelo Williams is playing, and if Tampa's cornerback Aqib Talib is playing. Each of these factors will go a long way in my decision, I'll update tomorrow if I can! If I can't make it to the forums in time, just assume it's a play if Williams plays and Talib doesn't! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 6, 2009 Share Posted December 6, 2009 I am on both of those Kroy. I like those plays. Also on KC+6 and STL +9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Do Work Son Posted December 6, 2009 Share Posted December 6, 2009 We've benefited from winning Thursdays a few weeks in a row now, and like previous weeks I'm hoping to continue the momentum. I feel like this weekend is a bit tougher than most, but I've still come up with a few plays that I feel pretty good about. Here's what I like this weekend: * Tennessee Titans +6.5 It feels like almost everybody is on this play already, which as I mentioned last week in my Dolphins play always worries me a bit. However, I simply can't ignore the recent level of play by the Titans. Vince Young has revitalized the offense, Tennessee is throwing for 7.39 yards/pass attempt and rushing for 5.5 yards/carry, 4th and 1st best in the NFL. On defense, their rushing defense has been a bit of a problem, however the Colts have the 9th worst rushing offense in the NFL so I expect that this won't be a huge issue. The key I see here is the Titans' pass defense. They've played much better of late, as the unit is starting to get healthy and they've been the 5th best defense in the NFL in terms of passing yards per attempt allowed. This is a much different Titans team than the Colts saw earlier this season, and I don't think that Tennessee will repeat the mistake of giving Johnson the ball only 9 times. I don't think the Colts' defense will be able to shut Tennessee's offense down, and that the Titans will be able to slow the Indy offense just enough to give themselves a chance to win this game. I'll take the points and hope the Titans get the job done. * Washington Redskins +9.5 After an impressive Monday Night win over the Patriots, I think this is an obvious letdown spot for the Saints. After their last Monday Night victory over the Panthers they showed some signs of letting down, before the Panthers handed them the game and they won by 10. I think that they'll struggle even a little more in this spot, especially because the game is on the road. Another factor to take into consideration in this one is that Washington has the 4th best pass defense in the NFL, allowing just 5.48 yards/pass attempt. The only other opponent that the Saints have played that was ranked top 8 in pass defense was the Jets, and they held the Saints to 10 offensive points. Buffalo, the 9th ranked pass defense, also held Brees in check and limited the Saints to 27 points, their second lowest point total of the year. So, given the facts that Washington is strong against the pass and this is a letdown spot, I think the Saints will likely be held under 30 points. So, given that I feel the Saints' offense may struggle a bit, the question becomes how effectively the Redskins can keep up on the scoreboard. Two of Washington's last three games they've topped 21 points, and I'm starting to think that their offense may be coming together. The Saints will also be without 4 defensive players on Sunday, and I think the letdown from Monday Night will be even more apparent on the defensive side of the ball. The Redskins should be able to put some solid drives together and make a game of this one, as they'll probably try to attack the Saints on the ground all game, and succeed. Again, I'll take the points and hope that the Redskins come ready to play. That's all I'm going to release for now, I'm strongly considering Panthers -5, but I need to wait to hear if DeAngelo Williams is playing, and if Tampa's cornerback Aqib Talib is playing. Each of these factors will go a long way in my decision, I'll update tomorrow if I can! If I can't make it to the forums in time, just assume it's a play if Williams plays and Talib doesn't! TENN +7 Saints/Redskins U 47 Jags/Texans O 47 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kroyrunner89 Posted December 6, 2009 Author Share Posted December 6, 2009 Leaving my Carolina play on the shelf since Williams is out, good luck today everyone! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted December 7, 2009 Share Posted December 7, 2009 Teasing BAL +10.5 and Over 35.5 tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted December 7, 2009 Share Posted December 7, 2009 Plays I like: TEN +7 (Tennessee is hot, and sooner or later the Colts have to drop one. I could see Tennessee winning this one outright and feel good about +7) DAL/NYG under 45 1/2 (Eli is hurt and struggling, Romo on the road struggles, weather might be iffy) NO/WAS under 47 (The Saints are a different team on the road, and it'll be cold and possibly crappy out in Washington) Forgot to tell you guys that I suck at this and that you are supposed to do the opposite of whatever I do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearcatGreg Posted December 8, 2009 Share Posted December 8, 2009 GB -3.5 Ed Reed out, Packers at home on MNF. That's enough for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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