Reggie Wayne

[i_am_the_swammi]

when you have a talented bunch of WRs and the leagues best QB in a pass happy offense, who's going to get the first look every time -the person who the play was called for

 

fixed

 

that being said, Wayne's value lies in the fact that in addition to having plays called specifically for him, he is also the guy Manning immediately looks for when option #1 is covered.

[devi0us]

+1

 

Too many people try to read too much into "there's too many people to throw to". Well, when you have a talented bunch of WRs and the leagues best QB in a pass happy offense, who's going to get the first look every time - obviously your #1 wideout. And with good WRs across the field, it doesn't make sense to double one WR where you leave another talented one open to tear up defenses all day long.

 

With that said, I don't have Wayne in any of my leagues this year - not cause I didn't want him, but he wasn't there in the second in all 3 drafts I was in.

 

I agree...I took him in the 1round anyway and I paired him with R. White in the 2nd from the 11th spot...

[Pitbull739]

You lucked out.

[darin3]

What are you basing this on, Darin? Last years stats? Wayne caught 100 balls and had 10 TD's. I could see his catches going down a tad, but I think he's one of the more sure things at WR. Wanye has been as steady as they come and I personally don't see that changing.

Let's play some Jeopardy.

 

3, 4, 4, 5, 3, 5

 

What are "Reggie Wayne's catches in the last six games of the season, Alex?"

 

In all but one of those games, he had 7 targets (6 in Week 12).

 

This, after having 5 double-digit target games in the first 11 weeks.

 

So, to me, as someone who actually looks at the raw data rather than the totals, it would appear that towards the end of the season, Manning became more comfortable with Garcon and Collie.

[MoOnshine22]

He's 31, coming off six straight 1,000 yard seasons, 8.6 TDs/year last 6 years, at least 75 catches in each of the last 6 seasons. Do you think the Colts are dumb enough to think he won't do it again this year? Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon will never be as effective as Reggie Wayne, no matter how much attention Wayne will get. Garcon and Collie help Wayne more than hurt him.

 

Passing on Wayne is one of the dumber things I've seen this year.

[devi0us]

He's 31, coming off six straight 1,000 yard seasons, 8.6 TDs/year last 6 years, at least 75 catches in each of the last 6 seasons. Do you think the Colts are dumb enough to think he won't do it again this year? Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon will never be as effective as Reggie Wayne, no matter how much attention Wayne will get. Garcon and Collie help Wayne more than hurt him.

 

Passing on Wayne is one of the dumber things I've seen this year.

 

I agree...

[BeeR]

fixed

 

that being said, Wayne's value lies in the fact that in addition to having plays called specifically for him, he is also the guy Manning immediately looks for when option #1 is covered.

 

No, quite often he isn't, or at least wasn't in the 2d half last year. That's how both Garcon and Collie managed to emerge last year. Mr Dropsies should be fine but he is very Colston-like now IMO...one of many options. I wouldn't want him as my WR1 unless I was in a bigger league and/or ignored WRs early on.

[Bronco Billy]

Wow. You'd swear someone suggested that Wayne would get benched for Garcon & Collie. I don't see anyone suggesting that Wayne isn't the primary WR target in IND, just that his production will be somewhat diminished because of the emergence of the younger WRs. Darin posted some strong support for that proposition with Wayne's targets/catches in the last half of the season last year, and I'll point again to 2008 where he had a very good year but just wasn't WR1 worthy. If you look at his career, he's only hit or exceeded 100 catches twice, and he's never had more than 86 catches in any of those other years.

 

Not only is it supported by facts, but it's a reasonable and rational expectation that he'd drop back down to his norm of about 85 catches for 1150 yds and 7 TDs now that there are other competent and capable WRs in IND. That's a damned fine year, folks, but it doesn't justify a 1st round pick of Wayne. He'll probably end up bunched in around WR10 to WR15 if he hits those numbers. To call those kind of expectations unsupportable and dumb just doesn't make much sense.

Edited August 31, 2010 by Bronco Billy

[BeeR]

Well said. Anyone who watch the Colts in the 2d half last year saw how little he even looked Wayne's way.

[Brentastic]

1 year does not confirm a trend. My point is that pointing to the last half of 2009 and inferring that's how 2010 will play out is probably not sound analysis. Could it play out like that - absolutely but I don't think probability favors that outcome. There are many variables that may have caused Wayne's slide in production. Perhaps Manning, being the smart QB he is, figured with a 8-0 record he should start intentionally getting the young guys involved in preparation for the playoffs. Perhaps Defenses started keying on Wayne more which left Garcon/Collie more open

 

What I'm saying is that you can't look at 1/2 season and claim that Wayne will suddenly not be Manning's favorite target this year. Wayne has been Manning's guy for a good 6+ years now and he's still in his prime. Probability lies on the side of Wayne having an average year. His 3 year average is: 95 receptions, 1306 yards, 13.7 ypa and 9 TDs. That's the numbers I'm looking for. Keep in mind that Andre Johnson, the undisputed #1 according to most has NEVER had double digit TDs. In the first 3 rounds I draft for safety (least risky) - Wayne,playing with the best QB in the game and being his go-to-guy, is as safe as they come, IMO.

Edited August 31, 2010 by Brentastic

[aggiebones]

Wayne is dead eye solid and with a passing QB and passing offense.

Yes, he could slip, but many of the young bucks coming up haven't shown it more than a season or so. He's steady and a bad season for him will still be top 6-10. And no reason to see that either. But drafting someone like Austin above him is crazy or your just a big gambler. Its possibly Austin out duels him, but I'd never bet on that for sure.

[gallagorilla]

after taking rice with my #3 pick in a 14 team ppr draft last night, wayne fell to me at pick #26 then ryan grant at #31. im thinkin that i got pretty good value.

[Avernus]

after taking rice with my #3 pick in a 14 team ppr draft last night, wayne fell to me at pick #26 then ryan grant at #31. im thinkin that i got pretty good value.

I think your 1st 2 picks were great, but I personally hate Ryan Grant for fantasy because he's as mediocre as mediocre gets....while being in a dynamic offense...

 

he's a perfect example of a player wasting a perfectly good opportunity..

[Bronco Billy]

I think your 1st 2 picks were great, but I personally hate Ryan Grant for fantasy because he's as mediocre as mediocre gets....while being in a dynamic offense...

 

he's a perfect example of a player wasting a perfectly good opportunity..

 

 

Grant was a top 10 FF RB last year and a solid RB2 the year before. He's good for 1200+ yds rushing and another 150 yds receiving, and he's the goal line option on the ground.

 

Not sure what more you want out of a RB2 unless you are playing with a bunch of neophytes who let good RBs drop too far.

[Avernus]

 

Grant was a top 10 FF RB last year and a solid RB2 the year before. He's good for 1200+ yds rushing and another 150 yds receiving, and he's the goal line option on the ground.

 

Not sure what more you want out of a RB2 unless you are playing with a bunch of neophytes who let good RBs drop too far.

 

 

here's the problem - he plays all 16 games and ends up wtih production equivalent to players who only start 8 games or so...and he was the 13th ranked RB in my local behind guys like Fred Jackson, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte and Thomas Jones....and he scored 14 more pts than Hightower...

 

Grant broke 100 rush yds 3 times last year while playing 16 games and in the receiving game he caught the ball 4 times in one game and the rest of the way he ranged from 0-3 catches in any given week - the only bonus was his 11 TD.....this is probably his ceiling and I expect Brandon Jackson to start eating into his production as he has a much higher ceiling, it's just that Grant is a "safe play"

 

" " -

[Cunning Runt]

You left out Clark also.

 

I took Calvin over Wayne in two leagues.

 

Wow. Not a chance would I have done that. I've had Calvin the last two years (Wayne was long gone) and I've been HIGHLY disappointed. Great player, sh-tty team and unproven QB.

 

Give me the guy that has done it year in, year out with one of the best QBs in the game chucking it to him.

[BeeR]

1 year does not confirm a trend.

So if Chris Johnson somehow fell to you at say the 7th or 8th pick, you wouldn't take him. Riiiiiiight.

 

My point is that pointing to the last half of 2009 and inferring that's how 2010 will play out is probably not sound analysis.

Generally speaking I agree 100%, but I think it's a valid concern here, esp given the extreme degree of change.

 

There are many variables that may have caused Wayne's slide in production. Perhaps Manning, being the smart QB he is, figured with a 8-0 record he should start intentionally getting the young guys involved in preparation for the playoffs. Perhaps Defenses started keying on Wayne more which left Garcon/Collie more open

Or maybe Wayne was just sucking more than the others.

 

What I'm saying is that you can't look at 1/2 season and claim that Wayne will suddenly not be Manning's favorite target this year.

Sure you can. And even if he is, the point is less "Manning's fav target" and more how it will be likely divided up a LOT between numerous others.

 

Wayne has been Manning's guy for a good 6+ years now

Is this new math? Try exactly 2: 07 and 08. Clark caught just as many balls for just as many TDs. And he's a freakin TE.

 

and he's still in his prime. Probability lies on the side of Wayne having an average year. His 3 year average

..is meaningless, given the emergence of the other receiving weapons for the Colts.

 

And at 31 he's not exactly washed up, but not exactly in his prime either.

 

Who knows, he might have another year like last. But I wouldn't count on it. In fact I'd be extremely surprised and expect a significant drop.

[Brentastic]

So if Chris Johnson somehow fell to you at say the 7th or 8th pick, you wouldn't take him. Riiiiiiight.

 

Generally speaking I agree 100%, but I think it's a valid concern here, esp given the extreme degree of change.

 

Or maybe Wayne was just sucking more than the others.

 

Sure you can. And even if he is, the point is less "Manning's fav target" and more how it will be likely divided up a LOT between numerous others.

 

Is this new math? Try exactly 2: 07 and 08. Clark caught just as many balls for just as many TDs. And he's a freakin TE.

 

..is meaningless, given the emergence of the other receiving weapons for the Colts.

 

And at 31 he's not exactly washed up, but not exactly in his prime either.

 

Who knows, he might have another year like last. But I wouldn't count on it. In fact I'd be extremely surprised and expect a significant drop.

 

That means you expect him to fall far out of the top 10. I'll take that bet if such a bet were offered. Wayne in the top 10 I win, not top 10 you win.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

That means you expect him to fall far out of the top 10. I'll take that bet if such a bet were offered. Wayne in the top 10 I win, not top 10 you win.

[BeeR]

That means you expect him to fall far out of the top 10.

Not necessarily far out or even out at all. A significant drop from 100/1200/10 could still land him in the top 10. I meant just what I said, a significant drop, ie more than a few less catches, yds and/or TDs. I don't have a set # in mind. I just know I wouldn't draft him as my WR1 unless I failed to grab others who I think present better value.

[561427]

Wayne fell to me in the 2nd round when i picked 3rd overall. I took MJD and then Wayne then Charles. I felt he was the best one available at the time and i planned on pairing him with another WR but when it snaked and #1 and #2 overall came before i did in the third round they took R. White and M. Austin. so I chose to pick Charles because I am big on this guy after getting him from FA last year week 10 i think. SO, I am fine with Wayne and glad to have him aboard my team this year. He will get his and there shouldnt be much to worry about.