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Winners Pool


gbpfan1231
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I'm no fan of picking against a home team in its home opener, but a very good ATL going against a PIT team that has some very real and substantial QB issues looks pretty savory. As far as home teams: the Giants, TEN, and JAX look like the safest picks in that order. If you want to pick a road opening team and don't like going against PIT at home, SD is probably your next best option - but Arrowhead is a tough venue for any team to play in.

 

I sure as hell wouldn't take the advice of the post above and pick DAL playing in DC in Shanahan's debut, and most especially until we see if their O-line woes in the preseason were a mirage. I'm skeptical right now.

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Yeah, I'm leaning towards the Titans as well. The Giants scare me, and so does SD going into Arrowhead. Put it this way... Of the Giants, Titans, and Chargers, I think at least one of the three will lose this week. Picking which one of the three it WON'T be is the tricky part. I'm leaning towards Tennessee, but it might be one of those last-minute decisions (hopefully not one I'll regret). Nothing worse than second-guessing your pick, only to knock yourself out of a survivor pool in Week 1 (speaking from experience). :wacko:

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There's an article in the WSJ about survivor pools on page D6. It looks at upsets over the last 10 years and says the Raiders have more wins when being a large underdog than any other team in the league, followed by the Bears, Panthers and Texans. On the flip side, the Broncos, Rams, Cowboys and Giants have lost the most games when being a heavy favorite.

 

Just says to be weary of the TEN v. OAK game since it looks to be the most obvious.

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I would say Atlanta, Miami, San Diego, and San Francisco all look like winners to me in Week 1. But I'm not sure you'd want to use any of those teams right away. I'm leaning towards Miami.

 

Week 8 is going to be a tough one as well... besides byes, all the good teams play each other, and all of the crappy teams play each other that week.

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I would say Atlanta, Miami, San Diego, and San Francisco all look like winners to me in Week 1. But I'm not sure you'd want to use any of those teams right away. I'm leaning towards Miami.

 

Week 8 is going to be a tough one as well... besides byes, all the good teams play each other, and all of the crappy teams play each other that week.

I hear ya, but the one thing I am trying not to do is get caught looking too far ahead. Nearly every time I base a survivor pick on schedules a few weeks ahead, I get burned (and consequently don't have to worry about a few weeks ahead). One week at a time... I'll be happy just to make it to Week 2. :wacko:

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There's an article in the WSJ about survivor pools on page D6. It looks at upsets over the last 10 years and says the Raiders have more wins when being a large underdog than any other team in the league, followed by the Bears, Panthers and Texans. On the flip side, the Broncos, Rams, Cowboys and Giants have lost the most games when being a heavy favorite.

 

Just says to be weary of the TEN v. OAK game since it looks to be the most obvious.

Good info. Most people will be taking TEN (I'd guess) and Oakland knocked a lot of people out last year with upsets over Pitt, Phi, Cin, etc IIRC. Not saying Ten wont win, just makes me nervous as it seems there is always a big upset in the first couple weeks that knocks a ton of people out each year...

 

I think I am going to roll with the Bears home vs the Kitties. Hopefully, I'll get the Bears out of the way and save Ten for later in the season.

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Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I realize that this will probably come down to a last-minute decision for me. I know there is a saying that you "shouldn't overthink" things, but I think that applies more to overthinking an obvious decision. This one isn't obvious, in the slightest, and I'll probably try to read up on some trends and such (like the ones posted above) before making a pick. One thing is for sure... I will be taking a home team, most likely. OK, not for sure, but damn close. :wacko:

 

:tup:

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There's an article in the WSJ about survivor pools on page D6. It looks at upsets over the last 10 years and says the Raiders have more wins when being a large underdog than any other team in the league, followed by the Bears, Panthers and Texans. On the flip side, the Broncos, Rams, Cowboys and Giants have lost the most games when being a heavy favorite.

 

Just says to be weary of the TEN v. OAK game since it looks to be the most obvious.

This is a bunk statistic.

 

You need to look at win % when the team was +9 or more. [Also, why was +9 chosen as the cutoff? No reason is given.]

 

Without a reference statistic of how many times each team has been that big a dog, this article is meaningless.

 

I don't think I need to explain why, but if anyone doesn't see it, I gladly will.

 

WSJ :wacko:

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This is a bunk statistic.

You need to look at win % when the team was +9 or more. [Also, why was +9 chosen as the cutoff? No reason is given.]

Without a reference statistic of how many times each team has been that big a dog, this article is meaningless.

I don't think I need to explain why, but if anyone doesn't see it, I gladly will.

WSJ :wacko:

Upon reading the article, the actually interesting statistic in there is that the Raiders have 6 upsets when +9 or more over the last two seasons alone.

 

That's, at minimum, an 18% upset rate, and is probably closer to 30%. Based purely on conjecture as to when they were such big underdogs, those upsets were evenly split between road/home. Though I believe two of those road games were at Denver.

 

OAK has won @Mile High & @Arrowhead in the last two seasons, but lost their home games to both the Chiefs and Broncos those years.

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Good info. Most people will be taking TEN (I'd guess) and Oakland knocked a lot of people out last year with upsets over Pitt, Phi, Cin, etc IIRC. Not saying Ten wont win, just makes me nervous as it seems there is always a big upset in the first couple weeks that knocks a ton of people out each year...

 

I think I am going to roll with the Bears home vs the Kitties. Hopefully, I'll get the Bears out of the way and save Ten for later in the season.

Considering myself very fortunate to still be alive at this point :wacko:

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I hear ya, but the one thing I am trying not to do is get caught looking too far ahead. Nearly every time I base a survivor pick on schedules a few weeks ahead, I get burned (and consequently don't have to worry about a few weeks ahead). One week at a time... I'll be happy just to make it to Week 2. :wacko:

 

THIS is how you win survivor pools.

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