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Need QB advice: Russell Wilson or Alex Smith WK16


mango_smoofie
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I've also got the same dilemma. My head says Smith but my gut says Wilson.

 

I over analyzed the heck out of it in my thread before I saw this one:

 

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?/topic/434413-wdis-wilson-smith-or-sanchez/

 

On paper Smith seems like a no-brainer but I trust Wilson more. If I play Wilson and he loses the game for me, I took my best shot. If I play Smith and he loses the game for me I'll be kicking myself for weeks.

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Yea you guys are right. Russell Wilson should be the better choice, in terms of both sentimental value and logical analysis.

I say that because Arizona's QB defense is not as great as it is being advertised. See below for all the QBs they played this season and their points. Out of all the starter level QB's only Rivers and Stafford fell below average. The rest of the starter level QBs got 17+. Wilson has been very consistent this year, and should get at least 17, and I can live that.

 

1. Philip Rivers (SD) 13.52

2. Eli Manning (NYG) 17.58

3. Colin Kaepernick (SF) 20.20

5. Peyton Manning (Den) 36.96

6. Kirk Cousins (Was) 18.16

7 Derek Carr (Oak) 7.12

8 Nick Foles (Phi) 25.84

9 Brandon Weeden (Dal) 8.52

10 Austin Davis (StL) 7.64

11 Matthew Stafford (Det) 5.32

12 Russell Wilson (Sea) 20.74

13 Matt Ryan (Atl) 22.84

14 Alex Smith (KC) 17.32

15 Shaun Hill (StL) 8.26

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Look at it this way. When I am looking at a game and I have evenly matched players, I consider the total points factor. Which game will have the more points scored in it. In this case, Pit is no shut down defense but ARZ is and will have to be in order to compete. KC is also weak on defense. So Smith is far more likely to not only be in position to gain yardage but also score points. While the SEA vs. ARZ game could and most likely will be a 17-9 slug fest.

 

ARZ has the best pass d in the league and they aren't that easy to run against either. Russel could very well be the leading rusher but scoring points..........?

 

My call is Smith for upside. He has far more upside even though I have more trust in Russel to win and play well, the floor is they score the same stat line like the above 17, the ceiling is Smith scores three times. If you need a flyer go with Smith if you need safety go with Russel.

Edited by Cowboyz1
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As a 9ers fan, it pains me to see the Hawks doing so well.

 

But yea, I started Wilson. I think my analysis was pretty accurate. Arizona D can crush sub-standard QB's, but against elite QBs, Arizona D is average. You are looking at the league Champ!

 

On a side note, I have Maclin and Parkey on the team, and that gave me a scare. Almost changed to Alex Smith for upside, but chose not to do it. Moral of the story is Don't Tinker With It, even if you lose, you will live better with the decision.

Edited by mango_smoofie
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