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Overall #1 Draft Pick


ShuckCreations
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If you guys were to draft right now and had the first choice who would you pick? I'm a little torn between Antonio Brown and Adrian Peterson. Would you take either of them or someone else?

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If I had to choose today before any camps/preseason, it's between AP and Charles for me, but considering some other players that I want to see how they shape up in camp before I'd seriously consider them.

 

I don't see myself taking a QB or WR first overall (barring a very strange league setup).

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The reason I'm considering WR #1 is because they tend to be less risky injury wise and Brown offers the most consistency week to week. He's a very safe pick whereas an RB in the first round statistically doesn't return the expected output from where they were drafted. There's value to be had in the 2nd and 3rd rounds for RBs (Hill, Forsett, Morris even). Not to mention guys in our league love taking QBs in the first round, there may be even better value RBs leftover.

 

Like I said I'm torn on the issue. Gut tells me to pick Peterson but logic tells me to pick Brown...

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Brown has been going no. 1 in about half of my RTS ppr leagues (50 plus). AP, Charles, and Bell constitute the other half, with frequency in that order. Other random first picks have included OBJ, Forte, Julio and Lacy. I personally have picked AP, Charles and Forte as 1st overall in ppr, at all about the same frequency, to ensure I dont put all my eggs in one basket. If I get the first overall in my long time local redraft, with 0.5 ppr, I would likely take Charles.

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Also, regarding my comment on choosing a safe pick. I know there are people that say you need to pick high ceiling / high risk players but I don't think that's smart with your first round pick. You need to pick who you think is the safest most consistent producer week to week or you're stuck replacing your top guy with a bench or waiver pickup of lessser value.

 

That said, this is why I will not touch Gronk in the 1st round. Too much risk even if he has extreme value at TE. I made that mistake last year in choosing Jimmy Graham 8th overall. Mind you I got Beast Mode in the 2nd round but I lost in the first.

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The reason I'm considering WR #1 is because they tend to be less risky injury wise and Brown offers the most consistency week to week. He's a very safe pick whereas an RB in the first round statistically doesn't return the expected output from where they were drafted. There's value to be had in the 2nd and 3rd rounds for RBs (Hill, Forsett, Morris even). Not to mention guys in our league love taking QBs in the first round, there may be even better value RBs leftover.

 

Like I said I'm torn on the issue. Gut tells me to pick Peterson but logic tells me to pick Brown...

 

 

Wish I could find it, but just read an article a few days ago (cant remember if it was ESPN, SI, Fox or somewhere else, popped up on a random twitter feed) that went into the numbers behind this comparing ADP and actual production, and at least last year, looking at the first few rounds, this simply was not the case. RB was just as safe as WR in terms of drafting a player that performed. I'll keep looking for it. It basically turned in to further argument for not taking a QB early, but I found the numbers very interesting

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I was really high on taking a QB 1st in our league (6pt TDs) until I read this article: http://www.thehuddle.com/2013/articles/sg-0718-dissecting-quarterback-value-in-fantasy-football.php

 

After looking at the numbers I find QB Coefficient of variations for our scoring system to be about 8% fot QBs. WRs were 14% to RBs 12%. So while they're essentially the same I'm seeing that WRs are slightly more valuable.

 

This video is one of the reasons why I'm so conflicted:

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Here's another good article about the attrition rate. It's a bit old but it actually shows worse turnover than Pat Mayo said in the video above. The only thing I wish were in the article would be the turnover rate of WRs compared to those of RBs.

 

http://fifthdown.blo...asy-draft/?_r=0

 

EDIT:

 

Oooh found where he gives WR attrition. http://subscribers.f...dman_gut157.php

 

If you're competing in a league where most owners select two backs within the first three rounds, in theory it could make sense to capitalize on the best receiving and tight end talent, especially if you identify the lesser-valued RBs who far out-produce their draft spot. Between 2006-2008, an average of 19.33 receivers remained in the Top 36 at their position for consecutive seasons. Fifty-three percent had a two-year run in the Top 24 and Top 12, respectively. An average for 14.67 receivers remained in the fantasy Top 36 for three consecutive seasons, that's over twice the amount of backs that remained fantasy starters. More promising odds, don't you think?

 

Yep, I think I'm going Antonio Brown in the first. I don't care what position I'm in. I love AP but I can't ignore the statistics.

Edited by ShuckCreations
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I have the 1st pick and cut down or not, I think I may still go Bell

 

 

Hard to justify when he could very well be missing roughly 1/4 of the season for you (assuming 12-13 week regular season).

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Hard to justify when he could very well be missing roughly 1/4 of the season for you (assuming 12-13 week regular season).

 

 

Yeah, that and like I've been pointing out...only 1/3 of RBs end up in the top 12 the next year. Missing that much time and likely being a statistical bust. No thanks. I'll let everyone else over draft him. It's the same reason why I wouldn't draft Foster in the first round. You need consistency throughout the whole season.

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Megatron had 71 catches, 1,077 yards, and 8 touchdowns in 13 games. That is not a bust. What hurt most was the 2 weeks before his 3 weeks out where he was used as a decoy and got only 1 and 2 catches. In the 11 games he was healthy, Megatron had 68 catches for 1,058 yards and 8 touchdowns. Spread that per game average over 16 games and it'd be 99 catches, 1,539 yards, and 11.6 touchdowns. Only injury prevented him from being a top 3 receiver.

 

I had Megatron last year (traded him for him right after the draft) and I don't remember that great of a season - but #'s don't lie. I just remember telling myself that I'd never go after a WR early in drafts again (again - I didn't draft him but I traded away J Graham and L Bell to get CJ in a package deal).

 

After all these years of FF - all I've learned is it's 85% luck and 15% luck. You can certainly try to set yourself up for success with a good draft but you can never pinpoint the busts early on. Doug Martin of 2 years ago, T Rich his sophomore season (before he was traded), CJ2K a few years ago - just to name some other top selected busts of these past few years. The biggest thing I've noticed these past few seasons is regardless if it's a PPR league or standard league, RB's should go first. I've tried to fight it and go stud WR / QB / TE heavy up front and just play RB committee players - but it doesn't work. WR's are not nearly as reliable as RB's - just my opinion, and there's so many solid ones these days - you can find 4 or 5 weekly starting WR's in the mid to late rounds of yearly redrafts.

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Found the article - http://www.nfl.com/f...es-based-on-adp

 

 

Basically turns in to a wait on QB article, but shows that of the top 10 RBs, 7 were taken in the first 3 rounds, and an additional 4 of the #11-20 were drafted in the top 4 rounds.

 

For WRs, 6 of the top 10 were taken in the first 4 rounds (the 4 other top 10 guys had ADPs after Round 8), and of the #11-20 WRs, only 2 were taken in the first 4 rounds with 7 of them available around Round 9.

 

 

Obviously we all know that past performance/results are not necessarily an indicator of future performance, but it does blow a little bit of a hole in the WRs are more secure statements that have been thrown around the last few years.

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Okay, after looking into this a bit further I'm starting to see that the top 5 between RB and WR tend to have about the same turnover rate (~50%). So with that in consideration and just how many WRs I'd be comfortable taking I'm now leaning more towards a RB at the top of my draft. The question I have is AP really the top guy? I feel like he could be but there's risk with him being a year off. He's been extremely consistent though over his career. Anyway These are my top considerations:

 

AP (Highest ceiling)

Lacy (Lower ceiling)

Charles (Injury concern)

Lynch (Could Jimmy steal TDs?)

 

Who's the best RB? I'm so torn on who to take. This'd be easier if I end up with the 5th or 6th pick 'cause I can just take Antonio but I still need to do decide who my top guy is first.

Edited by ShuckCreations
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Like I said earlier, this year is better than any to trade down. Get to that 5th-8th area and secure an additional 2nd rounder. Gold Jerry....Gold!!

 

 

Wish I could. We can't trade draft spots, unfortunately. They're picked randomly the day we draft.

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