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Advanced Scoring, Picking 1st


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My scoring system in our 12 person re-draft is pretty crazy. PPR 1pt, 6pt TDs for everything, 100 yards rushing/receiving is 10pt bonus, +10 for every 100 after. 1 pt per 25 yards passing, +10 bonus for 300 yards then +10 per 100 after. FG's over 40 is 4pts, over 50 is 5, over 60 is 6. Over 60 yard plays, runs or td receptions/passes +4.

 

A lot, but been playing it for 12 years now in the same league. Have a pretty good understanding of what folks like to do, expect myself this season having the number 1 pick. What to do, here is the Tier 1 picks at position:

 

1 557 Aaron Rodgers GBP 7 2 543 Andrew Luck IND 10 3 453 Eli Manning NYG 11

 

 

1 391 Adrian Peterson MIN 5 2 373 Marshawn Lynch SEA 9 3 360 Jamaal Charles KCC 9

 

TIER one 1 436 Antonio Brown PIT 11 2 409 Odell Beckham NYG 11 3 389 Julio Jones ATL 10 4 382 Dez Bryant DAL 6 5 382 Demaryius Thomas DEN 7 6 358 Jordy Nelson GBP 7 7 357 Calvin Johnson DET 9

 

1

306 Rob Gronkowski NEP 4 TIER two 2 288 Jimmy Graham SEA 9 3 236 Travis Kelce (u) KCC 9

 

My question is, who do you trust at Pick 1? I see some safer picks maybe, Brown seems safe, Lacy seems safe, Peterson?(not sure of) Charles (again not sure), love Bell, do I just forget the first 2 games he's not there?

 

Love to hear some theories and options, as you can see, really high scoring

 

 

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Hard to read the post - is that saying that you have Eli as the #3 QB in your system, and that the projections have Rodgers outscoring him by over 100 points? Peterson - Charles is about a 30 point difference... what about farther down the RB food chain in your system, what do RBs score? Same question with the WRs and TEs.

 

You realy need to take a look at your projections and see where the scoring breaks happen for each position.

 

Based on the little bit that you have posted, and assuming that the #3 QB has 453 projected points, and assuming that the other positions have relatively normal gradual drop offs, the numbers make it pretty clear that getting the QB you think will score the most is the way to go, assuming you have some faith in the projections. (How has scoring shaken out in past years?)

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Yes those are the projections based on my scoring system:

 

Going to go 10 deep at a position so better show the breaks:

 

TIER one 1 557 Aaron Rodgers GBP 7 2 543 Andrew Luck IND 10 3 453 Eli Manning NYG 11 TIER two 4 451 Peyton Manning DEN 7 5 448 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 11 6 448 Drew Brees NOS 11 7 426 Ryan Tannehill (u) MIA 5 8 414 Matthew Stafford DET 9 9 411 Matt Ryan ATL 10 10 411 Russell Wilson SEA 9

 

 

from top QB to 10th, 144 point difference.

 

1 391 Adrian Peterson MIN 5 2 373 Marshawn Lynch SEA 9 3 360 Jamaal Charles KCC 9 TIER two 4 357 Le'Veon Bell PIT 11 5 339 Eddie Lacy GBP 7 6 338 Jeremy Hill CIN 7 7 337 Matt Forte CHI 7 8 335 C.J. Anderson DEN 7 9 290 Justin Forsett BAL 9 10 286 DeMarco Murray PHI 8

 

From 1 to 10, 105 point difference

 

TIER one 1 436 Antonio Brown PIT 11 2 409 Odell Beckham NYG 11 3 389 Julio Jones ATL 10 4 382 Dez Bryant DAL 6 5 382 Demaryius Thomas DEN 7 6 358 Jordy Nelson GBP 7 7 357 Calvin Johnson DET 9 TIER two 8 341 T.Y. Hilton IND 10 9 328 Mike Evans TBB 6 10 318 Alshon Jeffery CHI 7 11 313 Brandin Cooks (u) NOS 11 12 308 Randall Cobb GBP 7 13 291 A.J. Green CIN 7 14 285 Jordan Matthews PHI 8

 

From 1 to 10th, 118 point difference

 

1 306 Rob Gronkowski NEP 4 TIER two 2 288 Jimmy Graham SEA 9 3 236 Travis Kelce (u) KCC 9 4 214 Zach Ertz PHI 8 5 211 Martellus Bennett CHI 7 6 206 Greg Olsen CAR 5 7 204 Jordan Cameron MIA 5 TIER three 8 197 Julius Thomas ® JAC 8 9 180 Tyler Eifert (u) CIN 7 10 173 Vernon Davis ® (u) SFO 10

 

From 1 to 10th, 133 point difference

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Really really over thinking my pick I am sure, but if I add total points up for first 5 picks, going Peterson,Rodgers,TY,K.Allen and J Stew (all of which mock wise I see at those spots) I come out with two Upside players in Allen and Stewie(with risk also) but if I total thier projected points and divide by 5 (players) it comes out to 361 points a player, way above any other first 5 pick scenarios(316 per player other best case).

 

Of course doesn't take into account draft curve balls and such, or Eli in the 8th maybe. Someone shoot me!

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