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Toughest keeper decision I have ever had - Drop Demaryius, Charles, OBJ, or Gronk?


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12 team PPR league. 3 keepers max. 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE starters

 

Picked up OBJ during the season to go with last years keepers. Now need to "drop" one of these guys:

 

RB Jamaal Charles

WR Demaryius Thomas

WR Odell Beckham Jr.

TE Rob Gronkowski

 

No restrictions on keeper duration. First 3 rounds are Keeper rounds, so I would get my first pick at the end of round 4 (as well as pick #1 in round 5)

 

I have gone back and forth many times and have been locked in on each one at some point.

 

With my 4th/5th round picks I would most likely be able to get about the 20th best WR and/or 20th best RB and/or the 4th best TE.

 

Great problem to have, but what's the right move?

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Yeah great problem to have. The way I look at those guys is by asking "who has the best chance to fall back in 2015-2016."

 

IMO that would be Odell. He was breaking records last year as basically the lone able body to play his position at a high level. I doubt he'll have those same monster numbers with Shane vereen and Cruz now there. I think he'll be good again but not as great. He seems too good to have a sophomore slump but the other guys are more reliable options this year. Charles/DT are no brainier 1st rounders. Gronk seems to be over his injuries and is still a top red zone option for a pretty accurate qb.

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Thanks for the comments so far. Definitely have me thinking of dropping OBJ. As I wrote the question I was actually leaning towards dropping DT even though I think is very likely to be the top scoring WR this year. I just felt that OBJ has a much larger upside in future years as he is only 22.

 

I was thinking of keeping both WRs and deciding between Charles and Gronk. And found myself thinking I would be better off locking down the most dominant TE in the game and cutting ties with Charles after a lucklaster year and a promise to limit his carries behind a subpar O-Line. I have run the numbers based on several different projections and this strategy would give me the most points. Anyone out there to talk me off the ledge or push me off it?

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