Jump to content
[[Template core/front/custom/_customHeader is throwing an error. This theme may be out of date. Run the support tool in the AdminCP to restore the default theme.]]

Anyone taking a chance on Foster?


faceplant
 Share

Recommended Posts

Had a draft last night and took him in the 6th round (67th pick). Then I snagged up Alfred Blue 3 rounds later.

At that point in the draft I thought RBs were getting thin and I figured if I could get Blue a few rounds later then I'd have a starter between them. Yes, the Houston offense is not as strong as in the past, but I feel like it was one of the best things that unfolded for me during the draft when Blue was there in the 9th. If Foster is active, it's going to be hard to sit him. If Foster is inactive, Blue becomes a candidate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely taking a chance on Foster. Took him in the 8th round of an 8 team league (58th pick) as my 4th RB. In total my RBs are Hill, Forte, Ivory, Foster, Adbullah and Duke Johnson

 

If Foster comes back and can produce RB1 type numbers I'll have some potential trade options down the road. Could also have some if the rookies pan out as well. Making a move would be nice because my starting QB isn't great for an 8 team league (Stafford) and my WR depth isn't the greatest. Working a trade for an upgrade at either spot will be my goal if any of the RB fliers I took pan out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i've not taken him, but he's been selected in every draft I've had so far (3)...the earliest he's gone would be the equivalent of the 4th round (i.e., 2nd round in my 10-team, 2-keeper league - 38th overall), which i think is way too early given the uncertainty around his return date...he's also gone as late as the 14th, 159th overall (12-team league) and in the middle at round 10, 99th overall (10-team league)...so, guys are taking him all over the place in the leagues I play in...I've got a few more drafts, but it is unlikely i take him, unless he is still sitting there very late...

Edited by the outlaw
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I grabbed him in the 6th rd, thinking too high now. If he comes back to regular form he will be a nice bonus. My other backs are Lynch, D Martin,Blount, Artis-Payne. 12 team std play 2-3 rbs. I hope he doesn't end up being the Josh Gordon of 2015 in regards to performance once he gets on the field.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

agree with the group - if I can get him late great but hes burned me with injury - the hamstring and he came back once or twice w two carries and left and the abnormal heart rate late in the season a few years ago. when healthy you cant beat him but hes getting older and softer soooooooooooooo...... if the price is right, yeah

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The guy tore his groin off the bone!!!

 

Initially they though he'd be shelved for 2-3 months. The friggin' owner of the team said he wasn't surprised Foster got hurt again. That should tell you something.

 

Then there was "some hope" that he could be back in 4-6 weeks.... but that was 3 weeks ago and we haven't been provided with an updated timetable.

 

Now, the best case scenario has him returning in late September if his rehab goes well.

 

But again... the guy tore his groin from the bone. This muscle is highly critical, not just to play football but to walk and function like a normal human being.

 

So yeah, I passed on Foster in every draft, regardless of where he fell to. Just not worth the risk.

 

I've found that to be successful in fantasy football you have to figure out the best way to mitigate risk. In this case, in order to mitigate the risk of having Foster on your team, you need to burn a roster spot (and another valuable pick) on Alfred Blue. Who, for all accounts, looks pretty average. So not only are you rolling the dice that Foster comes back healthy in a few weeks, but you risk him potentially re-injuring himself or being brought along slowly.... killing his value.

 

Maybe I'm completely off-base here and being way too risk-averse. If I'm wrong, well then super... I have him in a dynasty league and would love to see him return to form. But in redraft formats I'd rather let someone else spin the bottle.

E2A: The move I've made it to roll the dice (with far less risk involved) on Chris Polk, who the coaching staff absolutely loves and have made mention of him showing flashes of being an every down back.

Edited by darin3
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

You could draft a different running back than Blue. In fact, Foster could be the 3rd running back you take. And the difference between a receiver you could get in the 6th round versus the 9th round isn't very big. But I do agree that this injury could be way more serious than being reported. I'd have trouble passing on Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger for Foster.

 

Sure, you could... I suppose. It all depends on how you want to "defend" your picking of Foster. Foster's ADP since 8/25 has been RB23 (#62 overall). If you're pulling off the "true handcuff" method, you have to draft Blue 40 picks later. Or you roll the dice on a guy like Mathews or McFadden, each coming with risks of their own.

 

Handcuffing with Blue means - at least on paper - that you have the Texans starting RB locked down for the season. That's where I believe there's additional risk because: a] I think Blue will be average at best and b] once Foster comes back there is high potential for re-injury.

 

Again... all about risk mitigation and the ease with which you mitigate. And of course, the further a player falls, the less you worry about risk and its mitigation. Like if Foster somehow slips into the 90-100 range, then perhaps you roll the dice and hope he comes back sooner rather than later and at 100%.

 

E2A: After re-reading this post.... yeah, if you're taking Foster as your third RB, that means you've taken 2 RBs in the first 5 rounds. I suppose that's doable. I simply prefer to reserve my dice rolls for later rounds.

Edited by darin3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

im not touching him unless its VERY late .... like last 2-3 picks late.

 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he retired.

 

This injury is crazy serious for a normal person- not to mention a NFL RB.

 

He's considered retirement in the past and the offense is going to be pretty bad this year.

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I had him on my radar but in my main 12-team standard league someone took him at the 5.11 position - he was the RB27. I don't see the value there at all but to each his own.

 

7th or 8th round I would have considered it as all the guys there are speculative or in time shares.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh, what a shocker... that early return is not happening...

 

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Arian Foster (groin surgery) "could" return in four weeks, but that he may be sidelined "six or more."
Coach Bill O'Brien provided a non-update on Foster's status Monday. Returning in a month would have Foster missing four games, and quite possibly five. Houston's Thursday night tilt in Week 5 is 31 days from today. There have been some recent rosy assessments of Foster's timeline, but it's now trending the other way. Week 6/October 18 could be Foster's most realistic return date. Sep 7 - 5:24 PM

 

That said, I guess it depends on who you want to believe....
Speaking Monday, Texans coach Bill O'Brien said Arian Foster (groin surgery) is "doing well."
Don't overdo it on the details, Bill. O'Brien isn't going to give us much to go on with his star running back, but the Houston Chronicle has reported he should be back by "early October at the latest." Alfred Blue will lead the Texans' committee against the Chiefs on Sunday. Sep 7 - 4:22 PM

 

 

But that's kind of the rub. No way am I drafting this guy in the middle rounds when you're talking about an injury like this. No freakin' way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information