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How do you determine the opportunity cost of taking a QB early?


MTSuper7
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Wait, but the change is from a normal 4pt QB scoring league to a 6pt QB league. Nothing about WR's and RB's usually changes...they usually stay at 6. Obviously, if you changed the value of TD's for everyone, then it wouldn't matter.

 

Like I said, I don't know if changing the QB scoring from 4 to 6 is enough of a difference (given no change in WR and RB pts), but certainly only changing QB's TD value could have an effect as the example illustrates.

Please, go read the link to the article (Dissecting QB Value) I posted earlier.

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According to the huddles ppg stats from last yr, the difference between the #1 qb to the #12 qb, who ironically was Rodgers, was 6 ppg. That's a noticeable difference.

The guy that won one of my locals was carried week in and week out by Cam and Odell.

Iirc, he didn't draft Cam until the 5th or 6th, so I'm not saying take a qb early. But then again, some would say that is too early.

Believe me, anyone that knows me knows I usually wait, wait and wait some more on qb. But there's something to be said for getting the #1 scoring qb

That in and of itself doesn't always coincide with drafting one early. I stand by my research and the difference in QB value is just too minimal to matter most times but I'll get off my soapbox now.

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According to the huddles ppg stats from last yr, the difference between the #1 qb to the #12 qb, who ironically was Rodgers, was 6 ppg. That's a noticeable difference.

The guy that won one of my locals was carried week in and week out by Cam and Odell.

Iirc, he didn't draft Cam until the 5th or 6th, so I'm not saying take a qb early. But then again, some would say that is too early.

Believe me, anyone that knows me knows I usually wait, wait and wait some more on qb. But there's something to be said for getting the #1 scoring qb

 

The real trick is figuring out which 1 or 2 QBs it will be worth drafting early each year. And I challenge you to review your league history and see how often the top QBs came from the middle round draft picks while the QBs drafted early may have performed well but finished relatively equivalent to any other top 10 QB.

 

You can't consider the value of the QB without evaluating the value you get in other positions by waiting for QB

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The real trick is figuring out which 1 or 2 QBs it will be worth drafting early each year. And I challenge you to review your league history and see how often the top QBs came from the middle round draft picks while the QBs drafted early may have performed well but finished relatively equivalent to any other top 10 QB.

 

You can't consider the value of the QB without evaluating the value you get in other positions by waiting for QB

of course figuring out who the top cpl guys are going to be is tough. And you said middle rds...others (stats) is saying wait til late thats very different
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You keep moving the goalposts. Kickers are less predictable than QB's obviously, but yes, if there point difference was large enough and there was some way to predict kicker then it could matter.

 

I was using a toy example to explain how it could matter. Now, in all of the leagues you are talking about they are making QB's TD's worth more without corresponding changes into how RB's or WR's are scoring. The difference is smaller, which I agreed now twice might be too small for it to matter. Was just explaining that it could matter and that the real question is down to math. By the way, I am not advocating early QB drafting and don't do that myself.

 

See ... isn't that the kicker. You can almost NEVER predict which QBs are worth taking in the early rounds. People get too tied up in the absolute value of the points a QB scores without considering that you don't win with the highest scoring QB in the league .. you win by constructing a team that scores more points than your opponents week in and week out.

 

Top QB + mediocre RB + scrub RB + mediocre WR + scrub WR isn't a recipe for success

 

If you spend an early pick on a QB ... you better find some good value in the middle rounds

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Just curious but what was the final score of that matchup?

semifinal: 177-57 (losing team: Yates, Miller, Hopkins, Marshall, Robinson, West)

Championship Final: 76-53

 

The scary thing is Lynch was his first round pick. He drafted Newton, 5th round, 69th pick.

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semifinal: 177-57 (losing team: Yates, Miller, Hopkins, Marshall, Robinson, West)

Championship Final: 76-53

 

The scary thing is Lynch was his first round pick. He drafted Newton, 5th round, 69th pick.

QB points for the winning team in the championship? And who was his backup and what did he score?

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Winning team, Newton: 16

Losing team, Brady: 16

 

For some reason, in the history, I can't see the bench.

That's ok, he still won even if Newtown scored a 0 and the previous week, even with Cam scoring 60 it had no bearing on the outcome.

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not sure why those scores matter anyway. Chances are without Newton he wouldn't have made it that far

Honestly, that's something I'd be interested in seeing, as well as how much he would have lost by without Cam. I bet Cam had less impact than people realize.

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I'm glad Zooty, Grits and keggerz have taken the torch and run with it on this topic........

 

 

Regarding Newton last year - his value and the reason he was such a game changer was that he was not the top QB selected nor was he an early pick. His ADP (from MFL ADP tool) last year was QB11, taken at pick 84 or the end of the 7th round in a 12 team league. He had great value because you could get him so late, meaning you could load up on less risky RBs and WRs early and get a better team out of it.

 

Regarding 6 Point vs. 4 Point Passing TDs - I know I;ve done exhaustive posts before, but here goes again in a nut shell. The difference is 2 points per Passing TD over the course of the season. Last year, the number one passing QB was Brady with 36 TDs (4 others had 35), the #12 guy was Cousins/Rivers with 29 passing TDs, a difference of 7, or 14 points over the course of the season, or less than 1 PPG. In the past posts we laid out the numbers for additional years, but they all showed the same thing - other than the few historical years (Manning and Brady), it always came out to about a 1 PPG difference between the #1 and #12 guy if you moved from 4 point to 6 point passing TDs, and generally was about another 1 PPG difference for the next 10 guys. In other words, it was not a statistically significant change in and of itself. Changing the required number of starters (ie going 2 QB or allowing QBs as a flex) were much more significant in changing QB value, or making other changes to scoring, such as completions or boosting yardage scoring, but those changes generally put QB scoring so high in relation to the other positions, that as others noted above, you basically were resorting to playing fantasy QBs, not fantasy football,.

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Honestly, that's something I'd be interested in seeing, as well as how much he would have lost by without Cam. I bet Cam had less impact than people realize.

Cam carried his team, and then he got lucky at the right time (meaning opponents having bad games). He finished the season 8-5. He drafted Lynch 1st, E. Sanders 2nd., J. Matthews 3rd., D. Adams 4th., Newton 5th....and so on. Cam did have a handful of "Superman" games last season and it's hard to measure the effect of that compared to a good QB putting up solid numbers every game. That's not my area, I'm sure there is some metric out there to measure that.

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Cam carried his team, and then he got lucky at the right time (meaning opponents having bad games). He finished the season 8-5. He drafted Lynch 1st, E. Sanders 2nd., J. Matthews 3rd., D. Adams 4th., Newton 5th....and so on. Cam did have a handful of "Superman" games last season and it's hard to measure the effect of that compared to a good QB putting up solid numbers every game. That's not my area, I'm sure there is some metric out there to measure that.

Can you link me to the league and I'll take a look?

Edited by keggerz
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Can you link me to the league and I'll take a look?

It's a private league on ESPN and I'm not the commish. For the record, our consistent best player the past 10 years uses your Zero QB strategy and always finishes with a great record. He finished 10-3 last year, but had a bad game at the wrong time. We were scared of his team going into the playoffs:

 

Ryan Tannehill, Mia QB,

RB Lamar Miller, Hou RB

WR DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR

WR Allen Robinson, Jax WR

WR/TE Brandon Marshall, NYJ WR

FLEX Charcandrick West, KC RB

D/ST Bills D/ST D/ST

K Kai Forbath, NO K

HC Cardinals Coach HC

 

BENCH 2015 SEASON

Eric Decker, NYJ WR

Roddy White, Atl WR

Pierre Garcon, Wsh WR

Bench Robert Woods, Buf WR

Bench T.J. Yates, Hou QB

 

That's one hell of a team in a 16 team league, but he got a bad game at the wrong time. If he made it to the championship he would've won easily because he scored 132 points, but he lost that semifinal game.

Edited by Shaft
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The easy answer is draft using the Worst starter method. For me, I went wide receiver heavy in all my drafts. The drop-off there from 1-15 is WAY more drastic that 1-15 ranked qbs. I did end up with Cam Newton in a 12 teamer but I went WR with my 1st 4 picks (A Brown, A Jeffery, M Evans, R Cobb)

Edited by Shorttynaz
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Looked up 1 of my leagues from last year 12 team. 4 teams took QB in round 2. Results:

1st team to take QB finished 9th in pts for & 9th in final standings

2nd team finished 8th in pts & 10th final

3rd team finished 12th & 12th

4th team finished 4th & 8th

I drafted my 1st QB #84(7.12) finished 1st in points & 3rd final (did not have either QB I drafted on final roster).

The champion had Cam Newton who knocked me out with a 49.5 game then won the championship game scoring only 9.85

I'm a big believer in middle round QB drafting.

Edited by deaconjohn06
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