ClayMC Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 I really want to understand Yahoo’s ‘chances of winning’ calculation. I have a 17 point lead, plus Hopkins playing tonight, and yahoo is giving me a 98% chance of winning. Is Yahoo telling me there’s a 2% chance that Hopkins is going to go for -17 points tonight? Hahaha. I think their equation might need a bit of tweaking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolphin_Akie Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 Never had this issue if my opponent has no players left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClayMC Posted November 27, 2017 Author Share Posted November 27, 2017 37 minutes ago, Dolphin_Akie said: Never had this issue if my opponent has no players left. Yeah, he has no players left. Even the simplest of models should have my chances of winning at like 99.99%, if not higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WerkerM Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Yeah, I've never seen under 100% if I was leading an opponent with no players left by more than a point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Montana is da Man Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 You never know, he could fumble 9 times without gaining a single yard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolphin_Akie Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 I mean the only possibility you'd have it as 0.1% is if on the final play of the game its 4th down and the Texans are leading by say 3pts. Instead of punting they decide to just kill the clock by having Hopkins run backwards and giving up a safety with a loss of 60 yards. Even then he'd still not going to give Hopkins -17pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClayMC Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 Good news. I didn’t lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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