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Yahoo’s ‘chances of winning’


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I really want to understand Yahoo’s ‘chances of winning’ calculation. I have a 17 point lead, plus Hopkins playing tonight, and yahoo is giving me a 98% chance of winning.


Is Yahoo telling me there’s a 2% chance that Hopkins is going to go for -17 points tonight? Hahaha. I think their equation might need a bit of tweaking. 

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I mean the only possibility you'd have it as 0.1% is if on the final play of the game its 4th down and the Texans are leading by say 3pts. Instead of punting they decide to just kill the clock by having Hopkins run backwards and giving up a safety with a loss of 60 yards. Even then he'd still not going to give Hopkins -17pts.

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