Crazy to bench my RB1?

[ClayMC]

Am i crazy for trying to find a way to get Burkhead into my starting lineup?

 

I start McCoy and Gordon every week at RB. Normally, I’d be pumped to have 2 of what most people consider to be top-10, if not top-5, backs in PPR. 

 

But Gordon has averaged 12.6 points and only topped 15 points once in his last 6 games. Similarly, McCoy has averaged 12.2 points and topped 15 points once over his last 5 games. 

 

Meanwhile Burkhead has averaged 16.6 points and topped 15 points 4 times in his last 5 games. Plus with Gronk out, you gotta expect the Pats to lean more heavily on the running backs. 

 

10-team PPR

QB: Prescott (Roethlisberger)

RB: McCoy, Gordon (Burkhead, McKinnon, Collins)

WR: Jones, Hopkins, Evans (Diggs)

TE: Engram

Edited December 8, 2017 by ClayMC

[Dolphin_Akie]

Burkhead over Gordon this week in PPR. 

[Montana is da Man]

33 minutes ago, Dolphin_Akie said:

Burkhead over Gordon this week in PPR. 

 

Agree with this

[monster2333]

Wow, that's a tough call, but a nice decision to have.  I think McCoy and Gordon are the safer plays.  I do think Burkhead has a good game, but you just never know with the Hoodie.  He might pull someone out of the stands that ends up to be the star of the game (Jonas Gray anyone?).  I am starting Burkhead, but I don't have the luxury of 2 other top-7 (in my league) RBs to choose from.

 

[ClayMC]

I think i agree with you guys.

 

But it’s tough. The other two are definitely safer, and the “experts” are ranking them higher than Burkhead, but they have to play it safe in their rankings as well.

 

i don’t know what to do, but I’m leaning toward McCoy and Burkhead.

[dougsul]

If they run from the 2 yard line instead of pass I like Burkhart, you never know what they will do.   I believe without gronk they will run at least 35 times if not more.

[isleseeya]

Very tough call. I would probably give Gordon the nod but I could understand the apprehension as he has not delivered as he should even in some prime matchups 

[BottleWalk]

Ridiculous. You go with the guy who's actually the starting running back. 

[BottleWalk]

12 hours ago, Dolphin_Akie said:

Burkhead over Gordon this week in PPR. 

Disagree, especially since Gordon's playing the skins this week...

Edited December 9, 2017 by BottleWalk

[RMS@1]

Chargers could be up big early so they would be running the ball. Go with Gordon.  NE is to unpredictable.

 

 

 

Please reply to mine

[ASmith]

I think you have it right as set. Gordon no doubt over Burkhead

 

help with mine?

 

[shnugen27]

You start your studs. This is clearly recency bias affecting decision-making. McCoy and Gordon are both undoubtedly top 5-7 RBs this week. Burkhead is maybe top 12-16.

[tdybaz]

16 minutes ago, shnugen27 said:

You start your studs. This is clearly recency bias affecting decision-making. McCoy and Gordon are both undoubtedly top 5-7 RBs this week. Burkhead is maybe top 12-16.

Recency bias is only used in relation to comparing players over different eras, like saying Brady is the best QB ever without even considering Montana or Bart Starr into the equation.

Everyone, including you I'm sure, uses recent production from games to better determine lineups, it's called adjusting to what's going on.  I agree that the Patriots backfield can be difficult to get a read on, but it's also obvious from their recent (gasp!) games that they have settled on Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead, and Burkhead has produced very well the past two weeks. I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your decision of McCoy and Gordon, but to say it's "recency bias" when someone makes an argument for Burkhead is ridiculous.

[shnugen27]

4 hours ago, tdybaz said:

Recency bias is only used in relation to comparing players over different eras, like saying Brady is the best QB ever without even considering Montana or Bart Starr into the equation.

Everyone, including you I'm sure, uses recent production from games to better determine lineups, it's called adjusting to what's going on.  I agree that the Patriots backfield can be difficult to get a read on, but it's also obvious from their recent (gasp!) games that they have settled on Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead, and Burkhead has produced very well the past two weeks. I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your decision of McCoy and Gordon, but to say it's "recency bias" when someone makes an argument for Burkhead is ridiculous.

Recency bias is a psychological bias where the recent past is overly weighted to predict future behavior. In this case, Burkhead has had two good games in the recent past, and yet Gordon and McCoy are both more consistent, with higher ceilings, and higher floors when you widen your perspective beyond only 2-4 games.

 

Burkhead has more variability, less touches, a lower floor, and a lower ceiling. This explains why he is ranked below both McCoy and Gordon. 

[tdybaz]

You're focusing on his two recent good games, and ignoring the WHY they have been good, and better than his past games (which takes it from "OMG recency bias" to "informed fantasy player."

The Patriots have reduced the number of backs who are receiving meaningful touches to two:  Dion Lewis (who is actually questionable this week, which may reduce his touches), and Rex Burkhead.

Recency bias has, and has always had, a negative connotation as it relates to how people view it because it shows we have a tendency to focus only on the immediate and ignore history from further back. In this case, it's not recency bias but reading the "fantasy tea leaves," if you will. I hardly think you'd scream recency bias if the Chargers decided to go away from giving Gordon the majority of touches and a player picked up and played Ekeler.  No, you'd see the information and react accordingly.