Seferian-Jenkins signs with the Jaguars

[Wolverines Fan]

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9400/austin-seferian-jenkins

 

 

[BeeR]

That's a deft signing IMO. He's just hitting his stride with major upside.

[kdko]

I think he'll be a great target for people who aren't looking to draft a TE in the first 10 rounds.  Huge upside.

[Bobby Brown]

We will see.  Fantasy wise he was in a good situation last year with the Jets as there wasn't a lot of competition for targets.  Other than becoming a key target by default in 2017, he's underperformed.

[Bobby Brown]

I'll take the under on that prediction. 50/357/3 is his best season so far.

 

"The (ASJ's) 50 catches were 13th best in the NFL at the tight end position. That looks good on paper, but any scrutiny beyond that tells a less impressive story. Despite finishing 13th in total receptions, ASJ was only 26th at tight end in yardage. His 7.1 yard average per reception put him 70th out of 71 tight ends who played at least 25% of his team’s snaps (Source: Pro Football Focus).........

 

 

Sharp Football Stats put together the numbers and found that when the Jets targeted ASJ, it resulted in a successful play only 43% of the time. That rates 33rd out of 37 tight ends targeted at least 30 times in the passing game. 

 

So while his reception total was high, there were a lot of empty calories there. It seems like his reception total was inflated a bit by dumpoffs that didn’t help the offense much. In the end, targeting ASJ in the passing game turned into a losing proposition for the Jets.(Source: Sharp Football Stats)."

 

ASJ's best fantasy season was primarily due to quantity of targets, production quality was pretty horrendous.  And now he has to battle Hurns and Lee for targets instead of Robbie Anderson and Jermaine Kearse.

Edited March 16, 2018 by Bobby Brown

[DMD]

He was a second-round pick but he's never met expectations

 

2014 TB 21-221-2
2015 TB 21-388-4

2016 NYJ 3-44-1

2017 NYJ 50-357-3  (7.1 YPC)

 

He already had a 2 game suspension in 2016 and was cut by TB who gave up on him after just 2 years. He was kicked out of practices there.  He went to NYJ where TEs die so that is hard to hold against him. He had a DUI in 2016  which is when TB released him since he was on police video "not behaving". Hopefully, he can get out of his own way and realize his potential. He has the tools and maybe cleaned up his act now.  He said he stopped drinking. I hope he does turn it around and do something.

 

He joins the Jags that totaled 43-505-6 using their TEs in the same coach/system in 2017. Be nice to see him step up and with Allen Robinson gone, maybe he gets a bit more action.

 

[BeeR]

Hurns and Lee aren't exactly Rice and Taylor.  How does he not get a lot of looks? 

 

Yeah this is predicated on his having beat the alcy thing.  If so, I like his upside.

[CowboysDiehard]

23 hours ago, BeeR said:

That's a deft signing IMO. He's just hitting his stride with major upside.

 

Do I have to agree with you again?  Yeah.. I do.  Solid work by the Jags.

[kdko]

Mercedes Lewis went 24-318-5 last year fwiw.  You know, that guy you thought retired until he pops up out of nowhere with a 3 td game.  I can't see how ASJ doesn't at least double those numbers.  The fact the Jags keep bringing in marquee TE's tells me they've been dying to get one for Bortles.  Julius Thomas was infamous for his lack of work ethic, and Mychal Rivera was Mychal Rivera.  ASJ I still think can turn the corner.  Mercedes Lewis still being the only other TE you'd recognize on their roster tells you all you need to know about his opportunities.  He'll cost you nothing this year, and likely you won't have to draft him.  I think finishing 12th is his floor.

[Bobby Brown]

10 hours ago, BeeR said:

Hurns and Lee aren't exactly Rice and Taylor. 

 

I wasn't making that comparison.  I was pointing out that they have a better resume than Kearse and Anderson. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 17, 2018 by Bobby Brown

[Bobby Brown]

6 hours ago, kdko said:

Mercedes Lewis went 24-318-5 last year fwiw.  You know, that guy you thought retired until he pops up out of nowhere with a 3 td game.  I can't see how ASJ doesn't at least double those numbers

That is a whole 49 less yards but 2 more TDs than ASJ had last year.  And more fantasy value in non PPR for M Lewis than ASJ.  The hype for ASJ is pretty crazy when you consider he only got 50 more yards than a 40 year old M Lewis.

 

So you think it's a bare minimum gimmie that ASJ goes 50-600? Blowing away his career highs as a 6 year veteran?  Under Blake Bortles?  A QB that has never passed to a TE for more than 500 yards in a season?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 17, 2018 by Bobby Brown

[BeeR]

5 hours ago, Bobby Brown said:

 

I wasn't making that comparison.  I was pointing out that they have a better resume than Kearse and Anderson.

 

I know.  And not saying they're horrible.  Just that they aren't good enough to really minimize Jenkins' looks much.  I'm not saying this is the new Gronk.  Just a great value deal with upside.

[kdko]

3 hours ago, Bobby Brown said:

That is a whole 49 less yards but 2 more TDs than ASJ had last year.  And more fantasy value in non PPR for M Lewis than ASJ.  The hype for ASJ is pretty crazy when you consider he only got 50 more yards than a 40 year old M Lewis.

 

So you think it's a bare minimum gimmie that ASJ goes 50-600? Blowing away his career highs as a 6 year veteran?  Under Blake Bortles?  A QB that has never passed to a TE for more than 500 yards in a season?

 

 

 

 

I absolutely do.  He's going to go undrafted most likely so the risk wont cost you anything.  Talking upside here.

[Bobby Brown]

2 hours ago, kdko said:

 

I absolutely do.  He's going to go undrafted most likely so the risk wont cost you anything.  Talking upside here.

ASJ was drafted in every single league I was in last year; well, besides the one work league where no one knew what they were doing.  He certainly won't go undrafted this year.  

[Bobby Brown]

Correct.  The league name is Draft like Dopie.

[Bobby Brown]

How about you join me in the FFPC main event this year.  Let me know who your team is.

 

 

[Bobby Brown]

1 dynasty league is enough.

[kdko]

Just looked at the draft recap in my 12 man PPR redraft last year, and no one drafted him.  This is a competitive league with savvy owners as well.  Only 16 TE's were drafted, with the other Austin (Hooper) being the last one off the board. 

 

Based on last years numbers, I don't think anyone will really be targeting him.  Only people who spend entirely too much free time like all of us will be generating buzz. He'll be great for a no TE strategy, and I truly think his floor will be top 12 TE.

[michaelredd9]

ASJ was drafted in 4,076 of 6,051 public MFL leagues last year.  He does have a lot of natural talent.  I'll be willing to use a 16th round pick on him.  But he'll be on a very short leash.  He'll need to have a good game 1 for me to not cut him.

 

[Bobby Brown]

12 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

ASJ was drafted in 4,076 of 6,051 public MFL leagues last year.

 

67% draft rate last year; that sounds more reasonable for a guy who was a clear #1 TE option on a team lacking WRs.  If ASJ wasn't drafted in 100% of  2018 FFPC drafts, it was almost certainly well north of 90%. The 1.5 PPR exclusive to TEs results in more TEs being drafted relative to straight PPR leagues.

 

It's early, but according to FPros 2018 consensus ADP, ASJ is the 18th TE off the board. Draftsharks shows ASJ in going in the 13th found, 3 rounds higher than he went last year.  In the majority of 2018 leagues, I don't think its realistic to expect him to go undrafted; and I wouldn't be surprised to see his ADP to rise a bit more throughout the year.  

 

He is talented, but he still is going to have to share some targets with M. Lewis and Niles Paul at the TE position alone.  ASJ is probably going to be the most valuable fantasy TE in Jacksonville, but that isn't even a guarantee.  Jax wants to run the ball, and run it some more, before they start passing.  There certainly isn't a statistical framework of history in Jaxsonville  that supports a meteoric rise in fantasy value at the TE position. 

Edited March 18, 2018 by Bobby Brown

[Bobby Brown]

I acknowledge that Scott Chandler had a couple productive seasons under Marrone and Hackett. But those two coaches have also been in Jacksonville for two seasons now.  Why should coaching tendencies from 5 years ago be emphasized while ignoring a more recent track record of utilization?

 

Mercedes Lewis has beat ASJ’s career high in receiving yardage 6 different seasons over the course of his career; even Paul Niles has had one better year. Stating that ASJ is the only legit pass catching TE on Jacksonville is an opinion, but it’s not one backed by actual performance metrics. 

 

This is Bortles 6^th season as the starter in Jax.  His track record, which have included at least 2 TEs with better resumes than ASJ, in utilizing the TE position should also be taken into account. 

 

One is better off using a weight of evidence approach for future prognosticating.  But methinks when one shoots from the hip with a pie in the sky projection; one must cherry pick to not look foolish. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 19, 2018 by Bobby Brown

[Bobby Brown]

Setting career highs is totally in the realm of plausibility.  Thinking that ASJ will double his career high as a floor and triple those career highs as a ceiling, is ummmm.....bold?

Edited March 19, 2018 by Bobby Brown

[kdko]

5 hours ago, Bobby Brown said:

I acknowledge that Scott Chandler had a couple productive seasons under Marrone and Hackett. But those two coaches have also been in Jacksonville for two seasons now.  Why should coaching tendencies from 5 years ago be emphasized while ignoring a more recent track record of utilization?

 

Mercedes Lewis has beat ASJ’s career high in receiving yardage 6 different seasons over the course of his career; even Paul Niles has had one better year. Stating that ASJ is the only legit pass catching TE on Jacksonville is an opinion, but it’s not one backed by actual performance metrics. 

 

This is Bortles 6^th season as the starter in Jax.  His track record, which have included at least 2 TEs with better resumes than ASJ, in utilizing the TE position should also be taken into account. 

 

One is better off using a weight of evidence approach for future prognosticating.  But methinks when one shoots from the hip with a pie in the sky projection; one must cherry pick to not look foolish. 

 

 

ASJ hasn't been able to put it together yet, but he has shown glimmers and this will be the best situation of his career that he's been in by far.  The Jaguars as an organization, and a team, are the real deal right now.  This will likely be his last opportunity to show up, and he definitely has a far bigger ceiling than Lewis, or Niles ever could have.  Julius Thomas did have a better resume, but this was his big signing after Manning and led to his now famous laziness.  Is Mychal Rivera the other TE with a better resume?  C'mon.  You're boorish on him, but I don't think there's going to be many other TE's who will go undrafted that are in a better situation or have a higher ceiling than he does. 

[Bobby Brown]

54 minutes ago, kdko said:

 this will be the best situation of his career that he's been in by far.

Really?  By far?  Locked in?  ASJ had a great opportunity situation last year.  He was targeted 74 times and had 73% of the Jets target share for TEs.  Bortles has thrown to one TE for more than 74 targets once in his career (Thomas with 80 in 2015).  Bortles 2nd most targets to a single TE was 55 to M. Lewis last year.

 

Going to a better team doesn't mean your fantasy value goes up.  Borltes passing usage and value has also decreased substantially compared to the year he targeted Thomas 80 times.  His stats have decreased from 4.4K -35TD to 3.9K- 23TD to 3.7K-21TD over the last 3 years.  Jaxsonville no longer has the garbage time factor that boosted their passing value in previous years. 

[michaelredd9]

I'm going to make a concerted effort to get a top-4 tight end this season.  Or at least I am hoping 1 of the top-4 drops to the 4th round.  I think the drop off is considerable from tier 1 to tier 2 and even greater from tier 2 to tier 3.  If I don't one of the 7 or 8 dependable tight ends, I'm not going to enchiladafoot around.  I might draft 3 tight ends with an emphasis on high risk/high reward players.  Maybe Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, and ASJ.  I'm tired of trying to pick up a tight end during the season.  A couple of tight ends break out each season but it's tough to figure out who it will be.  I'd rather use 3 roster spots at the beginning of the year and guarantee a solid tight end than to use 3 roster spots mid-season in a desperate attempt to find a quality tight end.  With the high risk/high reward tight ends, at least one will be hurt or droppable after the first few weeks.

Tier 1

1. Gronk

2. Kelce

3. Graham

4. Ertz

Tier 2

5. Engram

6. Olsen

7. Reed

8. Doyle

9. Walker

10 Rudolph

11 Henry

Tier 3

12 Eifert

13. Seals-Jones

14. ASJ

15. Howard

16. Brate

17. Cook

18. Njoku

19. Witten

20. Kittle

21. Everett

 

Edited March 19, 2018 by michaelredd9