Pick 3 keepers

[Basket018]

10team 0.5 ppr

 

We need to pick 3 keepers. Who ever we keep they go in the round they were drafted last year.

 

We also get to choose are own draft position as well.  Starting from league champion down.  I was 3rd. I will have a choice as to where I would pick

 

Kirk Cousins

Levon Bell, Kareem Hunt, Duke, Theo, CJ

Larry Fitz, Baldwin, Hurns, Kennan Allen, Moncrief, Desean

Walker

 

I drafted Bell in the 1st round. Obviously. Baldwin 3rd, Kennan 4th, Hunt was 5th round. Larry was a trade so it be 6th round.

 

What 3 should I choose?

[Basket018]

Im thinking I have to keep Bell. He's a no brainer. I have the 3rd choice on where to draft. Its safe to assume everyone will pick their first round selection. I could at worse choose 7th. I could possibly get Barkley. Bell, Barkely and Hunt as my 3rbs sounds pretty amazing.

 

Do I go with Hunt at 5th? that seems like a very good value there since he's ranked in the top 10 rbs.

 

Should I go with Badlwin at 3? Allen at 4? or Larry at 6th?

 

Baldwin has injury woes but he could see a lot of targets now that Graham and Richardson are gone. I don't see Marshall taking a whole a lot away from Baldwin. Wilson should have another strong year.

 

Fitz has Sam Bradford starting the season at qb. Could have a good year. Might be to dependent on qb play.

 

And then there's Allen who is injury prone. But if healthy should see a lot of targets.

 

So basically pick 1 keeper i should keep.. haha

 

 

[Big Country]

If you get to pick your draft position, and you think most owners are going to keep their first round players, I think strategically you may be better off not keeping Bell, as you have at worst a top 3 pick (though strategically you may want to choose a later draft slot) which gives you a shot at getting him back (or Barkley, or whomever is top unprotected player), your 2nd round pick would still be fairly high due to keepers taking up earlier slots, and you have good keeper value available to you.

 

Couple of questions:

1. Realistically, how many owners do you think will be using their first round pick to keep a player?

2. Do you declare keepers before selecting draft position?

 

Hunt for a 5th is a no brainer IMO.

Fitz for a 6th is decent value.

Allen for a 4th is decent value.

 

The more owners you think will use their first round pick on a keeper, the more I would be swayed to not keep Bell, especially if you pick draft position after keepers are declared (and especially if you think the guys that pick draft slots 1st and 2nd will use their 1st rounders on keepers).

 

We'd need more information to delve into this deeper, such as an idea of how many teams are realistically likely to use their 1st and/or 2nd rounders on keepers, what top players (outside of the rookies) are likely to be available in the draft, etc. That way we can try and map out not just a keeper strategy but also a draft slot selection strategy to maximize the overall value for your team.

[Basket018]

Everyone’s 1st round pick 

 

David Johnson 

leveon

antonio Brown 

OBJ

Julio

Brady

Shady

Green

Evans

Devonta

 

I like to think maybe 6 would sure take their 1st rounder. 

 

The 1st place team selected Antonio Brown. I think he’s going to be kept

2nd traded their number 1. He has no player in the first round. So he will have choice of where to draft. Then I am at 3rd with Bell

 

And I’m not 100% sure if we declare keepers before the draft or after the draft

Edited August 8, 2018 by Basket018

[Basket018]

Bump

[wakefan3804]

personally, I'd keep Bell, Allen and Hunt.

[romie4]

if you ask me its a no brainer Bell, Allen, and Hunt

[richwyld]

Bell, Allen and Hunt is the way to go

 

[Basket018]

Should I then choose to pick late then?

 

Since I’m giving up my first rounder in Bell. Should I try to get an early 2nd rounder or go near the last of the second round and early third? 

 

[wakefan3804]

id rather have the early second round pick and late 3rd, than a late second and early 3rd. Big drop off to me after the first 15 picks or in comparison to 16-30 range. 

[Montana is da Man]

Bell, Hunt and Allen

[Big Country]

On 8/8/2018 at 8:17 AM, Basket018 said:

 

 

And I’m not 100% sure if we declare keepers before the draft or after the draft

 

Have you found this out yet? Also, who are the players that would cost first rounders, that the owners that select draft position ahead of you, have to choose?

 

If you know you can essentially have the first pick in the draft because the teams that pick draft slots before you are protecting first rounders (or their possible first round players are comparable to Bell), it is foolish to use a first on Bell when you can protect another player at decent value and simply draft Bell (or a comparable player) back with your pick.

 

If you know they are not using their firsts on freezes (or their potential first round players are not comparable to Bell) and thus could pick ahead of you, then you go ahead and keep Bell and pick the latest draft pick you can (thus getting you maximum value for Bell and maximizing the value of your 2nd round pick).

 

Anyone blindly suggesting you keep Bell without taking these factors into consideration is just being lazy in their advice and not taking into account all of the variables that need to be looked at here.

[Basket018]

We have up to the draft to declare our keepers for this year.

 

1st and 3rd draft slots are taking. Im up to decide where i want to draft this year

Edited August 13, 2018 by Basket018

[Big Country]

4 minutes ago, Basket018 said:

We have up to the draft to declare our keepers for this year.

 

1st and 3rd draft slots are taking. Im up to decide where i want to draft this year

 

They guys that took the 1st and third slots - who are their potential 1st round keepers?

ETA: I'm asking because from a strategic perspective, it is silly of them to have selected the 1st and 3rd draft slots if their intent is to use the pick to protect a player, unless they also intend to use their 2nd round pick on a freeze.

Edited August 13, 2018 by Big Country

[Basket018]

Team who selected to pick 3rd. Had Antonio Brown as his first rounder.  He could be just saving that 1st rounder to re-pick him again.

 

Guy picking 1st has no pick in the 1st round. He traded his 1st pick away and has no players on his current roster that was selected in the 1st round.

 

Tough not know who their keepers are

Edited August 13, 2018 by Basket018

[Big Country]

19 minutes ago, Basket018 said:

Team who selected to pick 3rd. Had Antonio Brown as his first rounder.  He could be just saving that 1st rounder to re-pick him again.

 

Guy picking 1st has no pick in the 1st round. He traded his 1st pick away and has no players on his current roster that was selected in the 1st round.

 

Tough not know who their keepers are

 

Now we know that the #1 pick will be used to select a player though, not protect one. And if we can safely assume that there will be no RB equivalent to Bell available in the draft (unless you would want to consider taking Barkley there for the keeper potential), then options are to:

 

A. Take the last draft spot and protect Bell, giving you an early 2nd round pick. You have Bell, Hunt, Allen plus whomever is there in early 2nd and late 3rd (and early 6th) to start out your lineup.

B. Take the #2 spot, plan to draft Bell or Barkley (or if another top back is not protected, take him), and then protect a Fitz type who comes at a decent value as a 6th rounder. You have Bell(Barkley), Hunt, Allen, Fitz plus a late 2nd and an early 3rd to start out your lineup.

 

 

Both options are pretty similar. I guess what it comes down to is if you think locking in Fitz, who has a late 4th ADP right now, at the cost of a late 6th, is worth having Barkley (or whomever your top rated RB is on the board) as your consolation prize by risking that Bell is taken 1st overall.

 

Me personally, I'm taking the #2 slot and tossing Bell back, locking in Fitz as a cheap WR 2/3, then drafting Bell/Barkley/best RB at the #2 slot, but I readily admit it's a coinflip situation and comes down to if you believe that Barkley could be a viable bellcow fantasy RB.