Todd Gurley - 2019 draft ranking

[michaelredd9]

19 minutes ago, stethant said:

Link?

 

Pure speculation.

 

[League_Champion]

7 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Pure speculation.

 

 

There's no chance he walks away from that contract.

[boltnlava]

2 hours ago, League_Champion said:

 

There's no chance he walks away from that contract.

"Walks" being the key word here.

[stevegrab]

14 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Pure speculation.

 

 

So about as useful as farting in the wind, got it. 

[League_Champion]

"It seems that the days of Gurley carrying the bulk of the load in the Rams' running game are coming to an end."

According to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, it is understood that Gurley won't be the team's "bell cow" back and the Rams intend to spread the ball around in order to preserve Gurley's knees. 

"I want him to feel most comfortable. That's the most important thing, what he feels he can most function at, being the all-purpose back he's been and that's where we're at," Rams head coach Sean McVay said.

[Shaft]

33 minutes ago, League_Champion said:

"It seems that the days of Gurley carrying the bulk of the load in the Rams' running game are coming to an end."

According to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, it is understood that Gurley won't be the team's "bell cow" back and the Rams intend to spread the ball around in order to preserve Gurley's knees. 

"I want him to feel most comfortable. That's the most important thing, what he feels he can most function at, being the all-purpose back he's been and that's where we're at," Rams head coach Sean McVay said.

This has completely removed him off of my draft board for the first 48 picks, not worth the headache.

[League_Champion]

2 hours ago, Shaft said:

This has completely removed him off of my draft board for the first 48 picks, not worth the headache.

 

Agree. I'm out, it's way to risky at this point.

[stethant]

As of early June it certainly isn't looking too good. This is gonna be another one of those roll-the-dice situations like Lev Bell last year and the year Zeke's suspension wasn't clear until right before the season. I hate the added luck dimension.

[purplemonster]

4th or 5th round sounds about right.  For all we know the guy can't even really play this year.  Or any year. 

[flemingd]

12 hours ago, purplemonster said:

4th or 5th round sounds about right.  For all we know the guy can't even really play this year.  Or any year. 

 

He's not lasting until the 5th in any league I take part in:

 

-  He only had 256 carries last year and never more than 279 - and he's been a top 3 RB on that workload

-  He had just five games over 20 carries in 2018 and only six in 2018. If you put a hard cap on him of 20 carries a game he'd only lose 21 from 2018 and 19 from 2017.

-  In two years under McVay he's averaged 18.4 rushes/game and 4.2 receptions/game.

 

They already weren't grinding him down.  And he scored 383 and 372 points in those two years despite that.

 

I'm not suggesting he'll average 26 PPG again.  His load will possibly reduce a little, and I wouldn't be shocked to see the efficiency take a hit.  But I'm taking him mid-late 3 and will trade up in the 4th if not.  Even if all I get is 60% of the former Gurley, that's 15.6 PPG and that's a win for a 3rd round pick.  SIXTY percent.  That part of the draft has all kinds of Kenyan Drake and Jay Ajayi landmines in it anyway, may as well roll the dice on someone with his potential payout.  I think his absolute floor is 1200 total yards, 40 receptions, 10 TD's with a lot of room for more.

[stevegrab]

34 minutes ago, flemingd said:

 

He's not lasting until the 5th in any league I take part in:

 

-  He only had 256 carries last year and never more than 279 - and he's been a top 3 RB on that workload

-  He had just five games over 20 carries in 2018 and only six in 2018. If you put a hard cap on him of 20 carries a game he'd only lose 21 from 2018 and 19 from 2017.

-  In two years under McVay he's averaged 18.4 rushes/game and 4.2 receptions/game.

 

They already weren't grinding him down.  And he scored 383 and 372 points in those two years despite that.

 

I'm not suggesting he'll average 26 PPG again.  His load will possibly reduce a little, and I wouldn't be shocked to see the efficiency take a hit.  But I'm taking him mid-late 3 and will trade up in the 4th if not.  Even if all I get is 60% of the former Gurley, that's 15.6 PPG and that's a win for a 3rd round pick.  SIXTY percent.  That part of the draft has all kinds of Kenyan Drake and Jay Ajayi landmines in it anyway, may as well roll the dice on someone with his potential payout.  I think his absolute floor is 1200 total yards, 40 receptions, 10 TD's with a lot of room for more.

 

Seems like the typical sports fan overreaction to me. Is the guy still going to be a stud, hard to say. Worth #1 overall pick, huge risk. Worth a first round pick, still some risk.  But ignoring him for 4 rounds, based on what we know now (which really isn't much) is silly. I hope his owner in my league thinks like this and doesn't use a keeper slot for Gurley. 

[League_Champion]

3 minutes ago, stevegrab said:

 

Seems like the typical sports fan overreaction to me. Is the guy still going to be a stud, hard to say. Worth #1 overall pick, huge risk. Worth a first round pick, still some risk.  But ignoring him for 4 rounds, based on what we know now (which really isn't much) is silly. I hope his owner in my league thinks like this and doesn't use a keeper slot for Gurley. 

 

If you watched Gurley later in the year last season it was obvious that he wasn't the same. This injury is no joke and only gets worse with time, Jay Ajayi. It's not unreasonable to believe that he'll never be that high volume back again. He won't be on my radar until late 3rd or 4th and even that depends on my needs. I think you'll be VERY dissapointed if you draft him anywhere in the first 2 rounds.

[indyrckstar]

Staying away from him.  

 

Seems like this year has a lot more RBs to target than you typical year meaning that less RB by committee.

[darin3]

Staying away in redraft (not that I'm even in many of these leagues anymore), but holding where I have him in a dynasty.  I won't get any value from him.  Fine with plugging him in as my RB1 because my WRs are so strong and I have a bevy of strong RB2 types.

[League_Champion]

3 hours ago, darin3 said:

Staying away in redraft (not that I'm even in many of these leagues anymore), but holding where I have him in a dynasty.  I won't get any value from him.  Fine with plugging him in as my RB1 because my WRs are so strong and I have a bevy of strong RB2 types.

 

There's still some value there. I'd imagine he'll get a bulk of the goal line carries, you would think. 

[darin3]

1 hour ago, League_Champion said:

 

There's still some value there. I'd imagine he'll get a bulk of the goal line carries, you would think. 

 

You think?  I'd guess that goal-line work would grind the knees harder.  Malcolm Brown may actually be a better option for that role.

I see Gurley getting 60% of the between-the-20's snaps, with the remaining 40% being divvied up between Brown and Henderson.  And the goal-line work to Brown.

[League_Champion]

2 minutes ago, darin3 said:

 

You think?  I'd guess that goal-line work would grind the knees harder.  Malcolm Brown may actually be a better option for that role.

I see Gurley getting 60% of the between-the-20's snaps, with the remaining 40% being divvied up between Brown and Henderson.  And the goal-line work to Brown.

 

Your guess is good as mine. I can't touch him. He'll have to fall pretty far before i get excited. But you know there will be that one idiot that takes him top 10. Happens every time. 

[heehawks]

Picked him up in the middle of the second round of a 12 man redraft last night. Already had Conner and figured it was worth the gamble.  It was hard to just let him pass by, even with all the negative news. 

[DMD]

Just had a draft last night as well. First two rounds:

 

1.01	RB	Barkley,Saquon
1.02	RB	McCaffrey,Christian
1.03	RB	Elliott,Ezekiel
1.04	RB	Kamara,Alvin
1.05	WR	Hopkins,DeAndre
1.06	RB	Gordon,Melvin
1.07	RB	Johnson,David
1.08	WR	Adams,Davante
1.09	RB	Conner,James
1.1	TE	Kelce,Travis
1.11	WR	Jones,Julio
1.12	WR	Beckham,Odell
2.01	WR	Thomas,Michael
2.02	RB	Bell,Le'Veon
2.03	RB	Mixon,Joe
2.04	WR	Smith-Schuster,JuJu
2.05	RB	Cook,Dalvin
2.06	RB	Gurley,Todd
2.07	WR	Brown,Antonio
2.08	WR	Evans,Mike
2.09	WR	Thielen,Adam
2.1	TE	Kittle,George
2.11	WR	Green,A.J.
2.12	RB	Chubb,Nick

[League_Champion]

3 hours ago, DMD said:

Just had a draft last night as well. First two rounds:

 

1.01	RB	Barkley,Saquon
1.02	RB	McCaffrey,Christian
1.03	RB	Elliott,Ezekiel
1.04	RB	Kamara,Alvin
1.05	WR	Hopkins,DeAndre
1.06	RB	Gordon,Melvin
1.07	RB	Johnson,David
1.08	WR	Adams,Davante
1.09	RB	Conner,James
1.1	TE	Kelce,Travis
1.11	WR	Jones,Julio
1.12	WR	Beckham,Odell
2.01	WR	Thomas,Michael
2.02	RB	Bell,Le'Veon
2.03	RB	Mixon,Joe
2.04	WR	Smith-Schuster,JuJu
2.05	RB	Cook,Dalvin
2.06	RB	Gurley,Todd
2.07	WR	Brown,Antonio
2.08	WR	Evans,Mike
2.09	WR	Thielen,Adam
2.1	TE	Kittle,George
2.11	WR	Green,A.J.
2.12	RB	Chubb,Nick

 

That's earlier than I would have taken him but I'm not surprised. I bet in some drafts he still goes top 10. Some people can't resist. 

[purplemonster]

Yeah I can't agree with that ranking. There is no chance I would take him before Nick Chubb.  I read that Gurley said it's a minor issue and I think he's wrong. But I guess we'll just have to see

[League_Champion]

 

Todd Gurley's trainer Travelle Gaines confirmed to CBS Sports that his client is dealing with an "arthritic component to his knee," but stressed that Gurley will be ready for the 2019 season. 

"Everybody knew when Todd came out of Georgia that there would be some kind of arthritic component to his knee, which is part of every surgery whether it's a shoulder, a knee, an ankle," Gaines said late last week. "He's now at the year-five mark, all we're doing is managing that. If we can pound him less in the offseason while keeping his weight down, working on his strength, working on his agility in short areas, that's going to give him a better chance to be healthy Weeks 14 through 17 when they really count."

[stethant]

On 6/5/2019 at 12:53 PM, flemingd said:

I'm not suggesting he'll average 26 PPG again.  His load will possibly reduce a little, and I wouldn't be shocked to see the efficiency take a hit.  But I'm taking him mid-late 3 and will trade up in the 4th if not.  Even if all I get is 60% of the former Gurley, that's 15.6 PPG and that's a win for a 3rd round pick.  SIXTY percent.  That part of the draft has all kinds of Kenyan Drake and Jay Ajayi landmines in it anyway, may as well roll the dice on someone with his potential payout.  I think his absolute floor is 1200 total yards, 40 receptions, 10 TD's with a lot of room for more.

 

This is a fair point but I would disagree on the floor - it could be alot lower if the injury is real and not fixable. I like your 60% argument but the issue for me is that we may not be able to predict WHEN he'll get that 60%. So, you start him and he goes for 20-30 yds or something similarly putrid. That is what completely kills you. If he's your RB3 not such a big deal. If he's your RB1 it really hurts.

 

[League_Champion]

9 hours ago, stethant said:

 

This is a fair point but I would disagree on the floor - it could be alot lower if the injury is real and not fixable. I like your 60% argument but the issue for me is that we may not be able to predict WHEN he'll get that 60%. So, you start him and he goes for 20-30 yds or something similarly putrid. That is what completely kills you. If he's your RB3 not such a big deal. If he's your RB1 it really hurts.

 

 

And if they are playing with a nice lead you'll barely see him. He'll be resting on the bench. And they'll be in that position a lot.

[Battani]

In one of my Dynasty leagues, I turned down Gurley and Juju for Mccaffrey and Darnold.  I just can't take a chance with Gurley.