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NFL rule change that would allow a fourth-and-15 onside kick alternative

League_Champion

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purplemonster Huddler

purplemonster

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Seems a little too permissive.  4th and 15 is a little too easy.  Actually god forbid the worst result is the inevitable iffy PI calls which will be a fixture of many 4th and 15's.  And then they will have an entire new set of downs.  I would make it a little longer like 4th and 18.  The issue for those who didn't read the article is the onside kick success rate has dropped since they stopped allowing running starts.  From 21%, to 7% to 12.5% the last two years.  I agree the onside kick has gotten pretty tough, I don't know if this is the best solution but I would make it slightly tougher if they do.

 

In the end, this is more of a matter of personal preference.  I prefer the NFL way because frankly I don't want crapshoot, wild finishes where some lucky bounce or crappy PI determines the game.  The NBA you can safely ignore about 3/4 of the game and just tune in for the last quarter when there are 12 timeouts and free throws and somebody wins by a couple.  The NFL the beginning of the game actually matters because one of the biggest determinants of who wins the game is who is ahead after the 1st quarter.  So I prefer the NFL way personally.  Occasional miracle comebacks but not a regular occurrence.   

Edited by purplemonster
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DMD Huddler All-Pro

DMD

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3 hours ago, purplemonster said:

Seems a little too permissive.  4th and 15 is a little too easy.  Actually god forbid the worst result is the inevitable iffy PI calls which will be a fixture of many 4th and 15's.  And then they will have an entire new set of downs.  I would make it a little longer like 4th and 18.  The issue for those who didn't read the article is the onside kick success rate has dropped since they stopped allowing running starts.  From 21%, to 7% to 12.5% the last two years.  I agree the onside kick has gotten pretty tough, I don't know if this is the best solution but I would make it slightly tougher if they do.

 

In the end, this is more of a matter of personal preference.  I prefer the NFL way because frankly I don't want crapshoot, wild finishes where some lucky bounce or crappy PI determines the game.  The NBA you can safely ignore about 3/4 of the game and just tune in for the last quarter when there are 12 timeouts and free throws and somebody wins by a couple.  The NFL the beginning of the game actually matters because one of the biggest determinants of who wins the game is who is ahead after the 1st quarter.  So I prefer the NFL way personally.  Occasional miracle comebacks but not a regular occurrence.   

 

They should do this 4th and 15th thing BUT say that pass interference or any penalty will not be called regardless. That could be fun to watch. Tackling the receivers before they get off the line. That would make highlight reels.

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purplemonster Huddler

purplemonster

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I doubt there is a hockey player in MN born before 1995 that hasn't seen it.  Basically a bible.  A bible of what I don't know, but we watch it 

 

Slap Shot 2 I don't even think i have seen.  The sequel to that and Caddyshack should be not spoken of 

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Shorttynaz Huddler

Shorttynaz

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I like the idea.  Onside kicks always give hope but the success rate is minimal.  4th and 15 from your own 25 is risky as if you don't get it, the other team is already in field goal range when they take over on downs.  

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purplemonster Huddler

purplemonster

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1 hour ago, Shorttynaz said:

I like the idea.  Onside kicks always give hope but the success rate is minimal.  4th and 15 from your own 25 is risky as if you don't get it, the other team is already in field goal range when they take over on downs.  

My issue with that is if you are using an onside kick you are likely losing the game anyway so I am not sure changing it to your own 25 means much.  If you don't recover the kick you will likely lose regardless, this just means you have a new decent chance to catch up even though you've been beaten the whole game.  That's my devil's advocate view.  Is that deserved to have a 25%+ chance?  Granted you still need to go another 50 yards for a TD, bit if you are only down 1-3 points you only need another first down or two to be in FG range.  That's a pretty excellent chance. And you control the ball.  

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Shaft Huddler

Shaft

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On 5/23/2020 at 4:52 AM, Shorttynaz said:

I like the idea.  Onside kicks always give hope but the success rate is minimal.  4th and 15 from your own 25 is risky as if you don't get it, the other team is already in field goal range when they take over on downs.  

Agreed, but they just need to go back to the pre rule change onside kick. It was more realistic then.

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League_Champion Huddler Hall Of Fame

League_Champion

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On 5/23/2020 at 4:52 AM, Shorttynaz said:

I like the idea.  Onside kicks always give hope but the success rate is minimal.  4th and 15 from your own 25 is risky as if you don't get it, the other team is already in field goal range when they take over on downs.  

 

It seems like a lot of the coaches are onboard as well. I think it's going to pass when they vote on Thursday. 

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stevegrab Huddler All-Pro

stevegrab

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More gimmicks and overreaction with rule changes that are not needed. 

 

Here is another thing to consider, as I understood from one article I read, the 4th & 15 play is an untimed down, you could score a TD on that play, slim chance and too far away for a Hail Mary to reach the EZ. But if you scored, then converted PAT/2P try, and then had to kickoff again you could keep scoring at will with just a few seconds left when scoring the first time. 

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purplemonster Huddler

purplemonster

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9 hours ago, stethant said:

This rule change was tabled.

Here's a good article that gives some statistics.  This author felt a major reason this was shot down was because some teams are much better at 3rd/4th and long 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-continues-to-misunderstand-the-data-and-analytics-by-tabling-onside-kick-rule-change-proposal/?fbclid=IwAR3AvSif4QXi7xpaliRZZwYa_I_nIwqyrHfJj2Mz4cczhYtHUWeMtzKb3Y4

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purplemonster Huddler

purplemonster

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3 hours ago, League_Champion said:

 

You don't like my proposal of having mini windmills, water hazards, funhouse mirrors and clowns running around on the field? I think it's brilliant. 

Personally I think they should have livestock randomly grazing around a baseball field to make it more exciting 

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purplemonster Huddler

purplemonster

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4 hours ago, LordOpie said:

But in defense of the rule change...

How often would the Superbowl MVP be in That situation?

I think the criticism that the onside kick has become pointless is largely true so I think something will need to change, I just don't know if this is it.  Yes it favors certain teams somewhat but those teams also tend to be the better teams anyway.  I guess my personal preference would be to make it slightly tougher but it would be nice to see a table of options with some data. 

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