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franco54

Trade offer...Thoughts

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I'm in a new 10 TM .5 PPR 2QB Dynasty league. We are having two drafts...one for Rookie's (I have 3rd pick) and the regular draft (I have 8th pick). 

I've been offered a trade.....My 3rd pick in Rookie for his 5th pick (Round 1 only) He'll also swap 3rd and 5th round picks in regular draft...He drafts 5th and I draft 8th. 

Your thoughts ??  Would you do this trade ???  Thanks

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Posted (edited)

How many people is everyone keeping?  Who is available with the 5th pick in the regular draft?  If everyone is keeping 15+ people, I don't see how that is a positive trade for you.

 

WIth 1.03 in the Rookie draft, you will probably take JT (assuming 1 and 2 go QB).

 

 

Edited by zips5000

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Posted (edited)

To clarify, this is a new startup right?

 

And is the swap in the main draft you moving up to the 5th pick in the 3rd and 5th rounds from your current 8th pick, or are you giving your 5th rounder for his 3rd rounder?

 

I think it is the former, but the wording in the OP has enough ambiguity that I'm not sure. If it's the latter, then it's a no brainer to drop 2 spots in the rookie draft to move up two rounds in the main draft. If it is the former, then I don't really see any advantage to the deal as the difference between the 3.05 and 3.08 and 5.05 and 5.08 is pretty negligible whereas in the rookie draft, most consider CEH, Taylor and Dobbins as the clear cut top 3 in varying order, though with 2 QB it could push Burrow and Tua into the top 2 picks (countered though that as it is a 10 team league, there are enough viable QBs that it's not certain that they should move that high from a value perspective), then lots of debate for the 4-7 picks between Akers, Swift, Jeudy and Lamb. I would think that if you are inclined to move the pick, you could get more value than the small bump ups in the 3rd and 5th. You can especially get more from a QB needy team if one of the first two picks is a non-QB.

Edited by Big Country
Added note regarding 2 QB consideration
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Posted (edited)

It's a new League....so everyone is available the first year...then we can keep 3 players from different positions starting in the second year.  

Edited by franco54

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BC, 

 

I'd be  moving up to the 5th pick in the 3rd and 5th rounds from  my current 8th pick,

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I'd probably do it, but I don't value Rookie picks that high. Im understanding it as youd give up your Rd 1 Rookie Pick for a RD 1 Main draft pick, correct? BC is right that the moving of 3 picks in 3rd and 5th is really nothing, but getting another Top 8 stud may be worth it if you are looking at winning now. Plus only keeping 3 people from each year isn't really helping at building a future team. 

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Hi Jeff, 

 

The first part of the trade was in the rookie draft....my 1.03 pick for his 1.05 pick.....he was also going to compensate me in the main draft with his 3.05 and 5.05 for my 3.08 and my 5,08 picks....Based on your reply and Big Country's...I've decided to reject the offer....Thanks to all for your input it was much appreciated. 

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Oh, yea. I see what you were trying to say now. No, I wouldn't do that trade either! Sorry for the misunderstanding! 

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3 hours ago, franco54 said:

It's a new League....so everyone is available the first year...then we can keep 3 players from different positions starting in the second year.  

 

Definite reject, and a little advice, generally speaking when a league is refered to as a dynasty, it means that essentially every player is kept from year to year. Only keeping 3 players (more commonly referred to as a keeper league) is a very different strategy set.

 

Given that you only keep 3 players, and they can not be from the same position, strategy wise I'd probably look to see if I can get anyone to give me good value in the regular draft for your rookie picks. While I like CEH, Taylor and Dobbins and the rookie WRs as much as the next guy, the odds are heavily against them being top 10 at their positions and justifying being kept - if you can get someone to say trade for the 1.03 outright (or for say a 3rd round rookie pick) and you can move up from say your 5th or 6th round pick into the 2nd round of the main draft, you will come out way ahead IMO.

 

That's the kind of deal I would be shopping for.

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BC, Thanks for the advice......Just one more curve ball regarding the Rookie's....The rookie draft is 4 rounds.....and they are on a "Taxi" Squad....Meaning that if I 

don't activate them I can keep them into the following year along with the 3 Keepers from the regular draft. Once I activate, then They follow the same rules as the 

other players.....So, what I'm looking for is a player with long term potential like CEH, Taylor, Burrows etc....the key will be when to activate them. I would probably 

not activate the first season....

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That throws a huge curveball.  Initially I was going to say that a possible strategy, assuming fairly normal lineup reqs other than 2QB, would be to essentially go zero RB in the main draft and load up at WR and QB in the first 5-6 rounds, then add in a few upside RBs, with the though being that you would have the 1.03 pick to fill in your RB position and still justify being able to keep him, as your top keeper options would be your WRs and QBs.

 

With this wrinkle, that approach is largely out. The only way I would activate a rookie in the initial season (how many years can you keep a player on the taxi squad) is if they were that last piece to pretty much lock you into a very strong chance at a championship, otherwise the cost is just too great as you basically lose a keeper just to activate a guy from the taxi squad. 

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I can keep 4  rookies on the Taxi squad...once I activate the player, the clock starts ticking and I can keep for 3 years max....The plan is to go thru season one with just the players from the regular draft....we have 18 positions....Starters are 2 QB  2RB , 2WR, TE,  Flex (RB or WR), K and DEF.  Depending on the Rookie's the plan is to hold them and evaluate in season two.  With my first pick...I'm looking at RB or Burrows...I like CEH and Taylor...I think that Dobbins is ahead of Swift...So it would come down to Dobbins or Burrows with the first pick..What do you think ?

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So if I am understanding right, the taxi squad is only a year one thing? You do not have a taxi squad for future years? Basically this first year you get to keep 3 players (1 per position) plus your 4 rookies if you don't activate them, but then there is no taxi squad going forward?

 

 

As for Burrows or CEH/Taylor/Dobbins, that completely depends on how your main draft goes, as with only 3 keepers (plus the taxi squad), you have to take into consideration the odds of any player you taking being a viable keeper option after year one for you, especially considering your rule of only one per position. So if you have Lamar Jackson for example, there is little chance that Burrows or any other rookie QB will be a keeper option for you. As for the rookie backs, again, it depends on who you end up with out of the draft, though as RBs tend to have much shorter careers in terms of elite fantasy relevance, I'd say there is a higher chance that one of the rookie RBs this year is a viable keeper option for you after year two.

 

 

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