purplemonster Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 If you trust these stats it reduced their chance of winning (which was only 10%) by a third. https://edjsports.com/articles/risky-business-conference-championships-2020/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyBalata Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 to me....if you have to have that td to have a chance to win, which they did. I want that chance from the 8 yd line. Versus if they did get the ball back with time left, they are now trying to score a td from 30-40 yds out, at best. If you go for it from the 8 and get the td and miss the 2 pter, then you only have to kick a fg from that 30-40 yds out. If you fail all together, you still have them at the 8 yd line where they are going to be way more conservative trying to get a 1st down then they are out at the 17 yd line or farther. Even if they are successful at the td and 2 pter, they still have to count on their defense stopping Tom Brady from getting into FG range and winning the game. Any possible scenario....they still are counting on their defense to hold T Bay from doing anything. I would first count on the MVP from 8 yds out. Every time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, BillyBalata said: to me....if you have to have that td to have a chance to win, which they did. I want that chance from the 8 yd line. Versus if they did get the ball back with time left, they are now trying to score a td from 30-40 yds out, at best. If you go for it from the 8 and get the td and miss the 2 pter, then you only have to kick a fg from that 30-40 yds out. If you fail all together, you still have them at the 8 yd line where they are going to be way more conservative trying to get a 1st down then they are out at the 17 yd line or farther. Even if they are successful at the td and 2 pter, they still have to count on their defense stopping Tom Brady from getting into FG range and winning the game. Any possible scenario....they still are counting on their defense to hold T Bay from doing anything. I would first count on the MVP from 8 yds out. Every time. Exactly! I agree 100% and this is what I've been saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyBalata Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Playing what ifs.....on 3rd down i think, we all thought Rodgers was or could have ran it in, or at worst, down to the 1 or 2 yd line. Then failed to score on 4th down leaving T Bay at the 1 yd line. I would have loved to see how that scenario would have played out. Rodgers can be pissed at his coach's decision but he had a chance himself and he pussed out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 6 hours ago, rajncajn said: It was the right decision because they needed to score again regardless and regardless, they were giving the ball back to Tampa who, thanks to penalties, drove the ball into field goal range. Had they given Rodgers a 4th chance, scored and converted the two point conversion they still would have likely lost by a field goal as time expired. The piece I find odd is he lets Rodgers call the play on 3rd down, but doesn't tell him he's strongly considering kicking the FG on 4th down. As Rodgers said, he expected to get a try on 4th down. It just seems insane to trust your defense that didn't play that well (yes they got picks in the 2nd half, but would they stop the Bucs offense otherwise) but you have a HOF/MVP caliber QB who can easily score the TD and 2P conv. And you don't even try. Yes the game would be tied and then you're relying on you defense to get a stop, but at least its already tied. Maybe TB gets a quick FG and you get another try. Better than still being behind and needing a stop and to score a TD (when you couldn't get one after getting inside the 10). Showing more confidence in your mediocre defense than your elite QB isn't good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 18 minutes ago, BillyBalata said: Playing what ifs.....on 3rd down i think, we all thought Rodgers was or could have ran it in, or at worst, down to the 1 or 2 yd line. Then failed to score on 4th down leaving T Bay at the 1 yd line. I would have loved to see how that scenario would have played out. Rodgers can be pissed at his coach's decision but he had a chance himself and he pussed out. If you read some of the stories being linked in the discussion Rodgers was asked about running it in, and about the play call in general on 3rd down. he said LaFleur let him call the 3rd down play, but he didn't realize that they were already strongly considering kicking the FG on 4th down, he figured (rightly so) that they'd get another chance to score on 4th down. Having 2min and all your time outs meant nothing when Brady was dominating (other than the turnovers which you cannot expect to continue) and you'd still need a TD and the stop after kicking the FG. If they could have tied by kicking 2 FGs, I could see the logic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyBalata Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Well Mr Excitement....my post was not meant to question whether he should have ran or not. it was meant to imagine how much fun for us fans to watch...what if....TBay had to start right at their goal line and try and get a first down. they gonna pass? Gbay gonna try and get a safety? That would throw a whole new wrench in the scenario. would tbay intentionally give up the safety? that would mean gbay would still need to score a td. so many possibilties for fun there if it happened. that's all. But no, Erin pussed out instead. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Brown Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 (edited) Apparently analytics said the FG attempt vs going for the TD was a coin flip. Okay that's fine. But no one will ever convince me the FG was the way to go. It was playing tentative and whiffing on a winning instinct. I'm sure Brady was tickled to see the kicker coming out on 4th down. Edited January 26, 2021 by Bobby Brown 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 hours ago, Finn5033 said: Here is the simplest explanation to me why it was the wrong choice. Aaron Rodgers is going to be the league MVP this season. The offense is the strength of that team and their own coach said that Rodgers is the leader of the team. So in absolute crunch time you put your season in the hands of your defense instead of the offense. Doesn’t make sense to me. Agree 💯 Finn. If I'm going down it's going to be at the hands of potential MVP Aaron Rodgers. Why the hell would I trust that defense and that dope Defensive Coordinator to hold Brady to a 3 & out with 2 minutes left when I'm on the 8 yard line and have one of the greatest QBs of all-time? It's unfathomable to kick the FG there. It was suicide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 In any scenario you have to put the game in the hands of the defense. The defense failed. No reason to think the outcome would have been any different in any scenario. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 16 minutes ago, rajncajn said: In any scenario you have to put the game in the hands of the defense. The defense failed. No reason to think the outcome would have been any different in any scenario. Very true, but I'd go down trying to score on 4th and goal from the 8 and if I fail, leave Brady and the Bucs trying to crawl out of the shadows of their own endzone to get a 1st, while I have 3 TOs and the 2 minute warning. Never, ever do I attempt a FG having Rodgers and the #1 offense and the game and chance at the SB on the line. You really truthfully do the same thing they did Rajn?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 hours ago, irish said: Very true, but I'd go down trying to score on 4th and goal from the 8 and if I fail, leave Brady and the Bucs trying to crawl out of the shadows of their own endzone to get a 1st, while I have 3 TOs and the 2 minute warning. Never, ever do I attempt a FG having Rodgers and the #1 offense and the game and chance at the SB on the line. You really truthfully do the same thing they did Rajn?! I honestly don't know what I would do. I just don't see it as a bad decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 12 minutes ago, rajncajn said: I honestly don't know what I would do. I just don't see it as a bad decision. Gotcha, was just curious what you thought you might do in the very moment Rodgers doesn't convert on 3rd down and it's 4th and goal from the 8 with just over 2 minutes left and you're down by 8. Really tough spot and obviously a really tough decision that needs to be made quickly. Didn't envy LaFleur. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 9 hours ago, rajncajn said: In any scenario you have to put the game in the hands of the defense. The defense failed. No reason to think the outcome would have been any different in any scenario. Well hell, then why bother at all? Just tell Aaron to take 4 knees there and give them the ball back. Why go down fighting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 12 hours ago, irish said: Gotcha, was just curious what you thought you might do in the very moment Rodgers doesn't convert on 3rd down and it's 4th and goal from the 8 with just over 2 minutes left and you're down by 8. Really tough spot and obviously a really tough decision that needs to be made quickly. Didn't envy LaFleur. I am wondering if LaFleur made the decision earlier in the possession or only decided after the failed 3rd down, and no yards gained. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeductiveNun Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 hours ago, League_Champion said: Well hell, then why bother at all? Just tell Aaron to take 4 knees there and give them the ball back. Why go down fighting? Rajn is spot on though. Regardless what GB does there, they are either tied, down 2, down 5, or down 8. The defense needs to make a stop regardless of the situation. It was always going to come down to that. They could not make the stop. They lost. The end. In the end it was always going to come down to the Packers defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 18 minutes ago, SeductiveNun said: In the end it was always going to come down to the Packers defense. So isn't that all the more reason to go for it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 37 minutes ago, SeductiveNun said: Rajn is spot on though. Regardless what GB does there, they are either tied, down 2, down 5, or down 8. The defense needs to make a stop regardless of the situation. It was always going to come down to that. They could not make the stop. They lost. The end. In the end it was always going to come down to the Packers defense. Right but I'd rather be tied going into the situation where the defense had to make the stop or have missed on 4th and 8, leaving the Bucs buried in the end zone. Not give up taking the FG, still be down by a TD and having to kick off providing likely better field position. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeductiveNun Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, League_Champion said: So isn't that all the more reason to go for it? Honestly I can see both sides of the argument for the decision. I didn’t have a dog in the fight so I’m not scrutinizing the decision that closely. If you’re looking at scenario gives them the best chance to win then I would say going for it would have been the better decision. Failing that, and knowing their defense was pretty suspect anyways, why not try the onside kick after the FG and try to keep Brady off the field that way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, SeductiveNun said: Honestly I can see both sides of the argument for the decision. I didn’t have a dog in the fight so I’m not scrutinizing the decision that closely. If you’re looking at scenario gives them the best chance to win then I would say going for it would have been the better decision. Failing that, and knowing their defense was pretty suspect anyways, why not try the onside kick after the FG and try to keep Brady off the field that way? I'd be somewhat ok with that. At least TRY to win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Brown Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Didn't successful onside kick recoveries drop from something like 20% to 5% after the rule change on stacking to one side of the ball? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 54 minutes ago, Bobby Brown said: Didn't successful onside kick recoveries drop from something like 20% to 5% after the rule change on stacking to one side of the ball? Yup, so chances of success doing that were slim to none and I'd much rather take my chances on 4th and 8, then kick off and play defense hoping for a hold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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