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DMD

First redraft of the year - first 5 rounds

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Just finished my first redraft of the year. It is a very good group and the draft pretty much went exactly the way I expected.

 

I drafted #12 and hoped for Travis Kelce but he's not making it that far much this year. I went for RB/RB instead of WR/WR which I almost did. Reason being the run on RBs is heavy and the low-risk RBs are getting mighty thin by the third or so round.

 

Anything surprises from what you expect?

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The uncertainty of Rodgers is really making his value plummet.

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I feel like I traveled back in time with all the RBs being taken. 

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Posted (edited)

Folks won't be sleeping on Cam Akers.

 

Mixon too high, Ekeler too low. Just my two cents.

 

R. Jones ahead of Fournette?

 

 

 

Edited by Wolverines Fan

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, League_Champion said:

Etienne way to low. 

It's a good point, people are scared of Robinson but talent usually finds opportunity, they may be too scared. Davante is the first thing that stuck out. Drafting this early is a real crapshoot. Carson is too low for me, but I suppose Penny is a risk. I don't want any part of Zeke. I havent followed Akers that much, I wouldnt put him that high but I haven't looked into it so it may be right. 

 

Interesting draft though

Edited by purplemonster

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Both of my expected RB keepers (Carson and Jacobs) too low ;) 

 

I haven't followed Christian McCaffery's return from injury (and don't do redraft league) but a bit surprised he's still #1 overall. Is he really expected to return to 2019 form and be dominant?  

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1 hour ago, stevegrab said:

Both of my expected RB keepers (Carson and Jacobs) too low ;) 

 

I haven't followed Christian McCaffery's return from injury (and don't do redraft league) but a bit surprised he's still #1 overall. Is he really expected to return to 2019 form and be dominant?  

 

McCaffrey has been looking great in offseason workouts. He had ankle, quad and shoulder issues after his heavy use 2019, but he didn't tear an ACL or do anything with more lingering issues. A fair question is if they will use him as heavily this year, knowing he can break down.

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80% of CMC from 2019 might still be worth #1 overall.  Not sure who I would take over him.  A lot of other guys have questions as well.  Barkley coming off injury.  Kamara with no Brees.  Adams with (possibly) no Rodgers.  That really just leaves Cook or Henry.  Yeah, I'm probably still going McCaffrey, in most formats, if I have the first pick.  

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34 minutes ago, Gopher said:

80% of CMC from 2019 might still be worth #1 overall.  Not sure who I would take over him.  A lot of other guys have questions as well.  Barkley coming off injury.  Kamara with no Brees.  Adams with (possibly) no Rodgers.  That really just leaves Cook or Henry.  Yeah, I'm probably still going McCaffrey, in most formats, if I have the first pick.  

 

Don't forget that Henry is coming off a crushing 378 carry season. Cook had a career year as well with 312 carries in just 14 games and he always misses at least two.

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5 minutes ago, DMD said:

 

Don't forget that Henry is coming off a crushing 378 carry season. Cook had a career year as well with 312 carries in just 14 games and he always misses at least two.

 

I wonder how long he can sustain that pounding? That's a lot of carries! 

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9 minutes ago, DMD said:

 

Don't forget that Henry is coming off a crushing 378 carry season. Cook had a career year as well with 312 carries in just 14 games and he always misses at least two.

Exactly.  While on paper, it may seem like they both can contend for the top spot, I just have a feeling both might regress a bit.  TEN needs to take a bit of the pressure off of Henry.  And Cook just tends to get dinged up at least once per year.  I'd be shocked if he puts together a 16 (or I guess 17) game season.  

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My gut says that Cook is going to have a huge season.  He may miss a game or two but the remaining games could result in gigantic fantasy production.  Yards, receptions, TDs.  He could be big.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, DMD said:

 

Don't forget that Henry is coming off a crushing 378 carry season. Cook had a career year as well with 312 carries in just 14 games and he always misses at least two.

 

He has a new oc too. We all know the Titans offense will still be the Henry show but still...

Edited by Wolverines Fan

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I have to say those 1-13RBs except Chubb and Akers all look pretty prone to injuries. You can say that every year about running backs but that group looks particularly prone. 

 

I have to wonder if Clyde edwards-helaire is going a little too low. His offensive line should be a lot better and not a lot of competition to my knowledge

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, purplemonster said:

I have to say those 1-13RBs except Chubb and Akers all look pretty prone to injuries. You can say that every year about running backs but that group looks particularly prone. 

 

That's my take also.  Not sure why drafts are reverting back to hoarding RBs heavy early on.  I understand it a bit more when you only have one flex; but in two flex PPR leagues (not super flex; only 1 QB starting)  there is a ton of advanced analytic data out there that shows how going RB early, and specifically RB-RB early,  has only statistically helped teams win FF championships in 2019; when starting RBs had an anomalous defiance to injuries.   A couple other observations:

- I probably go RB in PPR if I have the top 4 or maybe 5 top picks.  After that, I really start thinking about other positions. 

- I targeted Kelce mid-first to late first round last year, in 1.5 ppr for TEs; now he's going that early when PPR is equal to WRs.  Kittle going so many picks later is value.

-  Davantae Adams going early 2nd round must be because of the Aaron Rodgers scare factor. His ADP should rise. 

- People never learn to wait on QBs.  Lamar Jackson was going before Mahomes in many drafts last year.  And now he's still going way too early for my taste...next to Josh Allen..who I had been mining later in drafts for the last 2 years.  

- Kareem Hunt was a good PPR snag at 4.12 . He brings good value on his own and potentially monster value if Chubb gets hurt.  

 

 

Edited by Bobby Brown
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Mahomes going in the 2nd round for an experts league is a surprise since in RTS and FFPC he usually goes 4th round (ADP of 4.02 in RTS).

 

"Experts" are notorious for letting QB's fall farther than public drafters normally.

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The Akers pick is really surprising to me. I can keep him for a 3rd pick in one of my leagues. Now has me thinking that’s good value. I had decided I wasn’t going to do it. 
 

My other main league I can keep Metcalf, Kittle, or Akers for free. Tough decision

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I would take Henry #1, as of now. He is not taking a pounding but dishing it out. He is a freak, akin to AP.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/14/2021 at 3:45 PM, Ramhock said:

I would take Henry #1, as of now. He is not taking a pounding but dishing it out. He is a freak, akin to AP.

Agreed, I came extremely close to taking him #1 overall last year in my 12 team std league. Took CMC instead and still finished with the best record and 2nd highest scoring team. Ended up losing in the semi final, would have won the league if I had drafted Henry

Edited by Finn5033

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Posted (edited)

Henry in PPR was #3 last year with a career high in receptions, rushing TDs, and yards.  50ish points behind Kamara and on par with Cook, who played 2 less games.  I could see Darrynton Evans getting a lot more work this year and taking over the 3rd down roll also.

I would value Henry different in non PPR vs 0.5 ppr vs 1 ppr.  Maybe he's still a 'safe' choice in PPR but top 5 still seems over valued..  With all the work he got last year he feels like a bit of a landmine to be honest.

Edited by Bobby Brown

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Posted (edited)
On 5/12/2021 at 1:28 PM, darin3 said:

My gut says that Cook is going to have a huge season.  He may miss a game or two but the remaining games could result in gigantic fantasy production.  Yards, receptions, TDs.  He could be big.

If Minny's o-line lives up to the projected improvement, I am with you on this big time. Cook will still break down at the end of the year like he always does - so you need some "matchlight" contingency plan - but how this guy isn't golden I don't know. Schedule seems like a wash (no clear negatives/positives).

 

Ekeler is like a cheap Kamara....AND he has a legit QB. If there's any decent amount of Taysom then Kamara is gonna kill you.

Edited by stethant
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Not sure how Pittsburgh’s O-line compares to LeVeon Bell’s rookie season, but Steelers defense will keep their offense on the field. You guys had LeVeon Bell as the 9th pick his rookie year: that was on ESPN’s fantasy football forum message boards. So, I’m curious why Najeh isn’t ranked higher?

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6 hours ago, Rekroot said:

Not sure how Pittsburgh’s O-line compares to LeVeon Bell’s rookie season, but Steelers defense will keep their offense on the field. You guys had LeVeon Bell as the 9th pick his rookie year: that was on ESPN’s fantasy football forum message boards. So, I’m curious why Najeh isn’t ranked higher?

Pittsburgh's run game problems last year were all scheme and o-line related. A more talented RB is not going to solve their problems. Plus their rapist QB is cooked.

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Posted (edited)

I will say: Mike Davis and Chase Edmonds in the 5th are a little interesting. Would love them a bit later but could be some value there.

Edited by stethant

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