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Which second-year WR has the best outlook?


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Which second-year WR has the best outlook?  

48 members have voted

  1. 1. Who to take?

    • Henry Ruggs - LV
      2
    • Jerry Jeudy - DEN
      11
    • Jalen Reagor - PHI
      0
    • Tee Higgins - CIN
      23
    • Michael Pittman - IND
      6
    • Laviska Shenault - JAC
      6


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On 6/18/2021 at 7:30 PM, millworkguy said:

Not in the tier mentioned in the OP, but I really like Davis (buf) 

 

Quite excited to see what Higgins and Pittman do this season. 

 

Yeah.  No love for Pittman around here.  TY Hilton is a shell of his former self, and there's no one else on the roster that will really compete for targets.  Even if Hilton bounces back, he was never a high-target guy anyways.  With Wentz at the helm, the Colts offense will move well and Pittman should be the #1.  None of the other options are #1 WRs, so not understanding why Pittman isn't getting any votes.

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37 minutes ago, darin3 said:

 

Yeah.  No love for Pittman around here.  TY Hilton is a shell of his former self, and there's no one else on the roster that will really compete for targets.  Even if Hilton bounces back, he was never a high-target guy anyways.  With Wentz at the helm, the Colts offense will move well and Pittman should be the #1.  None of the other options are #1 WRs, so not understanding why Pittman isn't getting any votes.

 

To me, because he wasn't very good except for a few games and always showed the same strengths and limitations. Great at shallow crosses and that's about it. Not a ton of upside to his strengths and unless Wentz turns into his savior, I see him as very limited in the pro's because he's not a great separator in vertical routes. 

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1 minute ago, gilthorp said:

A big time dark horse from Year 1 to Year 2 production will be Cephus in Detroit. Decent foundation, has showed he can play and could be in line for a nice spike in volume.

I've bought him fairly cheap on a couple of leagues this .off season.  Tons of targets up for grabs 

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3 hours ago, gilthorp said:

 

To me, because he wasn't very good except for a few games and always showed the same strengths and limitations. Great at shallow crosses and that's about it. Not a ton of upside to his strengths and unless Wentz turns into his savior, I see him as very limited in the pro's because he's not a great separator in vertical routes. 

I see Paris Campbell not too far off of Pittman. 

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3 hours ago, gilthorp said:

A big time dark horse from Year 1 to Year 2 production will be Cephus in Detroit. Decent foundation, has showed he can play and could be in line for a nice spike in volume.

 

I like Amon-Ra St. Brown, after Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman.  Cephus could surprise and be a WW plug and play as the season wears on. 

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31 minutes ago, irish said:

I see Paris Campbell not too far off of Pittman. 

 

I like him, too, but he'll be operating out of the slot most likely.  It'll be interesting to see how this receiver group operates.  I think there is upside with Pittman and perhaps Campbell to some degree.  And maybe even TY if he gels with Wentz and can stay healthy.

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1 minute ago, darin3 said:

 

I like him, too, but he'll be operating out of the slot most likely.  It'll be interesting to see how this receiver group operates.  I think there is upside with Pittman and perhaps Campbell to some degree.  And maybe even TY if he gels with Wentz and can stay healthy.

Yup, I still think TY will finish with the overall best numbers but there won't be much of a gap between he and Pittman. 

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On 6/21/2021 at 1:35 PM, darin3 said:

 

Yeah.  No love for Pittman around here.  TY Hilton is a shell of his former self, and there's no one else on the roster that will really compete for targets.  Even if Hilton bounces back, he was never a high-target guy anyways.  With Wentz at the helm, the Colts offense will move well and Pittman should be the #1.  None of the other options are #1 WRs, so not understanding why Pittman isn't getting any votes.

 

Curious what your measure is for a high target WR, because Hilton had some big numbers with 100 or more for 6 years straight (2013-1018) with the first 4 years getting 130+ targets (139, 131, 134, 155) then just 109 & 120.  He missed 6 games in 2019 and had 68 targets, and had 93 in 15 games last year which still lead the team. 

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23 minutes ago, stevegrab said:

 

Curious what your measure is for a high target WR, because Hilton had some big numbers with 100 or more for 6 years straight (2013-1018) with the first 4 years getting 130+ targets (139, 131, 134, 155) then just 109 & 120.  He missed 6 games in 2019 and had 68 targets, and had 93 in 15 games last year which still lead the team. 

 

That's way more than I considered him for.  It'll be interesting to see what WR(s) get the most looks under Wentz.  TY and Luck had a great connection.

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If Denver has some better QB play, and Jeudy can catch more of the balls thrown his way he could see a major increase in production. He had over 100 targets, but caught fewer than 50% of them. He had a nice 16.5 yards per reception last year.

 

Denzel Mims (NYJ) missed half the season, but he's also starting with a new QB. 

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3 hours ago, stevegrab said:

If Denver has some better QB play, and Jeudy can catch more of the balls thrown his way he could see a major increase in production. He had over 100 targets, but caught fewer than 50% of them.

 

Agree, i'd like to see him with a real QB as well. I think he's the most talented out of all of them but the amount of drops last season was alarming. If he can fix it he's a stud. 

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17 hours ago, League_Champion said:

 

Agree, i'd like to see him with a real QB as well. I think he's the most talented out of all of them but the amount of drops last season was alarming. If he can fix it he's a stud. 

 

According to NBC sports stats, he had 9 drops, second behind Diontae Johnson (PIT) with 10.  Targets and receptions are official stats, while drops are not. I'm not sure how various places who do drop stats determine them, but with 113 targets and 52 receptions, 9 drops out of 61 targets he did not catch isn't that big a number. And don't forget that balls thrown out of bounds, at a players feet or even horribly thrown right to a defender still count as a target for some player. 

 

A low catch rate like Jeudy had could just be a situation where the QB throws a lot of crappy passes in your direction. 

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Yea, I remember Diontae getting put on the sideline in at least 2 games I watched last year for his drops. If his own team benches him for a time, they consider him guilty of too many drops.  regardless of what stat determines a drop. if Juedy ranked one official drop behind him. he has too many drops. that said, i do agree, the definition of a drop can be subjective.

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2 hours ago, BillyBalata said:

Yea, I remember Diontae getting put on the sideline in at least 2 games I watched last year for his drops. If his own team benches him for a time, they consider him guilty of too many drops.  regardless of what stat determines a drop. if Juedy ranked one official drop behind him. he has too many drops. that said, i do agree, the definition of a drop can be subjective.

 

The key there is team officials pay attention to the details, and know what is really a drop. When we look at drop stats and catch rates unless we watched those players play those games (not highlights, RedZone or just a few plays) we generally don't have that info. Reading that a team benched a WR because of drops is more significant than a fan saying "he had a lot of drops".

 

PS I just read the news item on Mims(NYJ) I forgot they added other WRs this year so its even harder for him to carve out a role. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

In the midst of my first slow draft best bell draft of the year.    Chase went 5.9 and Higgins went 6.3

Almost went Boyd at 7.5, but took Sutton instead.  Boyd went 4 picks later.  Still thinking Boyd is value.  

 Best Ball vs. redraft may have made a difference. Sutton is my WR4 pick and essentially the last of 2 flexes. 

 

Best ball 28 rounds is weird though - Picking Claypool and Logan Thomas last year in the mid 20s won some leagues.    

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Topn3 in the vote were Higgins, Jeudy and Shenault. I'm gonna go with Shenault.  Higgins should have a productive year but he'll have to contend with Tyler Boyd and newcomer, Burrows college connection, Ja'Marr Chase.and I don't see Higgins with enough targets to lead these nominees. Of course I could be dead wrong as he does stand a chance to be very productive.

      Jeudy's.rookie year wasn't that great. Lot of drops and inconsistent  QB play. The QB play this year may not be much better even though they added Bridgewater. This equation does change though if they end up with Aaron Rodgers. Sutton's coming back to and will demand targets.

  So, my guy.Shenault has the upside I like. He's got a franchise QB now in Lawrence who's destined to succeed. Chark stands atop the depth chart and will get top coverage leaving Shenault with one on one matchups. JAGS in all probability will be playing from behind a lot this year forcing them to throw more than they'd usually like and here's why I see Shenault being the benefactor of that scenario. At season's end I think Shenault will sit atop the list of players in this post.

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  • 1 month later...
55 minutes ago, LordOpie said:

Athletic's Paul Dehner, Jr. reports WR Ja'Marr Chase could lose some regular season snaps to WR Auden Tate. 

It's been a disastrous month for the stud rookie receiver, who had three ugly drops in the Bengals' preseason game against Washington on Friday. Chase, who hasn't played competitive football since 2019, said after the game that he's "still adjusting to the timing" of NFL play. Dehner said Chase's struggles continued into Sunday, when he recorded a few drops in red zone drills, including a nicely thrown ball from Joe Burrow to the back of the end zone. Asked about Tate taking on some of Chase's snaps in the regular season, head coach Zac Taylor said "you can take a young guy and let him acclimate to life in the league. His skills will show off here pretty soon.” It appears fantasy managers drafting Tee Higgins over Chase in seasonal leagues were right all along. Chase's case of the yips should push him well down draft boards in the coming weeks. 

 

I'm dropping Chase some in the rankings based on his play and then these reports.

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I voted Higgins.  That said, I think the next tier might be just as interesting.  Bryan Edwards, Gabe Davis, Mooney, Callaway.  Go a little deeper, and even guys like Cephus and Quez Watkins.  Most of those guys were drafted in the bottom half of dynasty drafts.  Guys like Mooney, Callaway, and Watkins were drafted near the end, or in some cases, not at all.  And, some of them (Edwards, Mooney, Callaway, maybe Davis) have a legitimate shot at being the WR2 on their respective teams.  Great value compared to what they cost.  

 

Side note.... I am very interested to see what happens in Philly.  Between Reagor, drafting Smith, and now Watkins making a pre-season splash, that's a lot of speed/quickness on one team.  

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23 minutes ago, Gopher said:

 

Side note.... I am very interested to see what happens in Philly.  Between Reagor, drafting Smith, and now Watkins making a pre-season splash, that's a lot of speed/quickness on one team.  

 

I agree. Reagor was the 1.21 pick last year between CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson. And now they have Devonta Smith who was prolific in college.

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  • 1 month later...
On 6/17/2021 at 4:34 PM, LordOpie said:

I think his only competition is boyd and Chase as they don't really have pass catching TEs or RBs. And just like Ruggs, Chase is unproven.

Don't be shocked if TE Sample has more catches than Chase

 

TE Sample:  0 targets, 0 receptions, 0 yards, and 0 TDs.

 

Chase:  16 targets, 11 receptions. 220 yards, 4 TDS. 

 

Yea Lord Opie,  I'm going to be a bit shocked when Sample has more catches than Chase.  

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