jfromsoudy Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 (edited) Anyone know why Huddle dropped Derrick Henry from RB4 to RB9 and kept J Taylor the same in their rankings? Edited August 4, 2021 by jfromsoudy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 I haven't seen the rankings, but maybe they feel that the heavy workload will result in a drop in production this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 He's had a historic workload the last two years - 832 touches. Concerned that it will catch up with him. Here is an article I did on him Just readjusted a few players closer to where I wanted them in the rankings. Taylor runs behind an outstanding O-line. Not concerned that much with whatever difference Wentz or not makes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 RB9 though?? Even If he gets 25% less carries he still needs to be higher than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 His career rankings going backward - 3, 5, 13, 26, 40. 25% less production would be No. 8 last year. I don't fault anyone wanting to still ride the wave, I'm just looking at it compared to how that workload impacted previous RBs and he is actually bigger than any of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, DMD said: His career rankings going backward - 3, 5, 13, 26, 40. 25% less production would be No. 8 last year. I don't fault anyone wanting to still ride the wave, I'm just looking at it compared to how that workload impacted previous RBs and he is actually bigger than any of them. I get it, and I agree that sooner or later he has to hit a wall. I don't think any human can withstand that beating year after year. But until it happens I'm in on Henry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaft Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 35 minutes ago, League_Champion said: But until it happens I'm in on Henry. If you wait until it happens, then you're too late and have already overpayed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, Shaft said: If you wait until it happens, then you're too late and have already overpayed. You're not drafting him top 9? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 49 minutes ago, League_Champion said: I get it, and I agree that sooner or later he has to hit a wall. I don't think any human can withstand that beating year after year. But until it happens I'm in on Henry. Most backs would have broken down after his monster 2019 season. That he just got better in 2020 is almost inexplicable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 1 hour ago, League_Champion said: You're not drafting him top 9? Depends on league settings (lineup and scoring) and type of draft (redraft, keeper, dynasty startup), but there are a lot of setups where I would not draft him top 9. Non-PPR, 2 required RBs, redraft then yes, he's a top 9 pick. PPR, only 1 RB required, then there are a lot of other players I probably consider over him. Dynasty league of any type and he's a tough buy in the first round Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 1 hour ago, League_Champion said: I get it, and I agree that sooner or later he has to hit a wall. I don't think any human can withstand that beating year after year. But until it happens I'm in on Henry. Certainly no offense meant but this is the difference between the elite fantasy owners and the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaft Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 1 hour ago, League_Champion said: You're not drafting him top 9? Honestly, I don't know right now. My point was about your logic of "until it happens." If "it happens" and you've drafted him, you're too late. I have moved people down in my rankings a year earlier before their descension starts, but I'd rather be early than a year late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 12 minutes ago, Shaft said: Honestly, I don't know right now. My point was about your logic of "until it happens." If "it happens" and you've drafted him, you're too late. I have moved people down in my rankings a year earlier before their descension starts, but I'd rather be early than a year late. I'm not Nostradamus. I can't tell you when he's going to hit a wall. I do know that he's far from toast. To even think that he's not a top nine RB TODAY is absurd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, LordOpie said: @League_Champion is correct and Here's why... In the first eight games last year, Henry averaged 4.63 ypc. Second half, Henry averaged an insane 5.75 ypc. His final game 5.42 ypc. He didn't wear down as the season aged. Have to also take into account who he played down the stretch and their defensive ranking vs. RB 14 @JAC (30) 15 DET (31) 16 @GB (28) 17 @HOU (32) The next week when they needed him in the playoffs, he had 18 carries for 40 yards. Playing in the AFC South is a blessing for any RB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaft Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 31 minutes ago, LordOpie said: @League_Champion is correct and Here's why... In the first eight games last year, Henry averaged 4.63 ypc. Second half, Henry averaged an insane 5.75 ypc. His final game 5.42 ypc. He didn't wear down as the season aged. You can make this argument for David Montgomery and Jonathon Taylor also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaft Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 (edited) 38 minutes ago, League_Champion said: I'm not Nostradamus. I can't tell you when he's going to hit a wall. I do know that he's far from toast. To even think that he's not a top nine RB TODAY is absurd. I'm not saying he's NOT a top RB9, that's where DMD has him ranked. RB9 does NOT always mean first round, however. It's also important note, almost no one sees the dropoff for these RBs, they just seem to hit a wall. People forget how big Jamaal Lewis was and he hit a wall after his 2,000 yard season when he was 24/25. I will draft like I always draft, on value. Edited August 4, 2021 by Shaft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Brown Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 The first round is full of RB traps this year. Just like the good ol days. I think I've already mentioned a couple reasons, beyond the heavy use breakdown concerns, on why Henry probably won't make it onto any of my teams: - Henry's PPR ADP is essentially counting on him to repeat his historical year value wise - He's never caught 20+ passes in a season. The odds of finishing a top 10 PPR RB are low and dependent on mega yards and TDs - He scored 18 and 17 total TDs his last two seasons. Counting on him averaging 1TD per game a 3rd year in a row is wishful. Even for a workhorse like Henry; things revert back to the mean at some point - Darrynton Evans was hurt last year. Henry shouldered the RB workload last year at a high % (don't have the stats in front of me). It's entirely plausible that Evans eats up 25 to 33% of the RB snaps this year. Henry has been, and probably will continue to be, drafted well before I want to invest a pick in him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 44 minutes ago, Shaft said: I will draft like I always draft, on value. Agree, no doubt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Bobby Brown said: The first round is full of RB traps this year. Just like the good ol days. I think I've already mentioned a couple reasons, beyond the heavy use breakdown concerns, on why Henry probably won't make it onto any of my teams: - Henry's PPR ADP is essentially counting on him to repeat his historical year value wise - He's never caught 20+ passes in a season. The odds of finishing a top 10 PPR RB are low and dependent on mega yards and TDs - He scored 18 and 17 total TDs his last two seasons. Counting on him averaging 1TD per game a 3rd year in a row is wishful. Even for a workhorse like Henry; things revert back to the mean at some point - Darrynton Evans was hurt last year. Henry shouldered the RB workload last year at a high % (don't have the stats in front of me). It's entirely plausible that Evans eats up 25 to 33% of the RB snaps this year. Henry has been, and probably will continue to be, drafted well before I want to invest a pick in him. Basically this, plus, as @Shaft said, Top 9 RB is very different than drafting him in the top 9 picks. In a redraft, he will (and should) go higher, as he hasn't broken down "yet", and if he does, it only affects you for the one year. In a dynasty/keeper, his value is quite a bit lower as very few RBs, if any, have been able to sustain his level of workload and not have the inevitable breakdown in a fairly quick manner. In these leagues (keeper/dynasty), it's better to sell a year early than hold a year late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 I must be missing something. He’s still RB4 when I look. RB8 in PPR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 who would I pay for advice on fantasy football, DMD or LC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 34 minutes ago, stevegrab said: who would I pay for advice on fantasy football, DMD or LC Yup, you're right Steve. He's clearly RB9. Right there with Gaskin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bakerboy Posted August 4, 2021 Share Posted August 4, 2021 5 hours ago, LordOpie said: @League_Champion is correct and Here's why... In the first eight games last year, Henry averaged 4.63 ypc. Second half, Henry averaged an insane 5.75 ypc. His final game 5.42 ypc. He didn't wear down as the season aged. He had 2 - 200 yard games in the second half against the Mighty Jags-250 and the Texans -215 Throw in another 178 against the Colts. That will help your AYC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stethant Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 yeah this looks entirely fixed to me - and JTaylor has been appropriately punished for not having an NFL caliber QB at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purplemonster Posted August 5, 2021 Share Posted August 5, 2021 Personally I am ok with Henry for another year. Plus Julio and AJ should be enough to take defenses from focusing in him. Not going out of my way to draft him though. Next year....no thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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