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Shaft

2021 NFL win total predictions

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What do people think? This is based on William Hill Sportsbook.

 

2021 NFL win totals

TEAM WIN TOTAL OVER/UNDER ODDS

Chiefs

12

-130/+110

Buccaneers

11.5

+100/-120

Packers

11

+105/-125

Ravens

11

-105/-115

Rams

10.5

+105/-125

Bills

10.5

-130/+110

Seahawks

10

+105/-125

49ers

10

-140/+120

Colts

10

-110/-110

Browns

10

-115/-105

Titans

9.5

+110/-130

Saints

9.5

+120/-140

Cowboys

9.5

+110/-130

Steelers

9

+105/-125

Patriots

9

-125/+105

Dolphins

9

-135/+115

Chargers

9

+105/-125

Vikings

8.5

-115/-105

Washington

8

-105/-115

Raiders

8

+115/-135

Cardinals

8

-140/+120

Broncos

7.5

+105/-125

Bears

7.5

+105/-125

Panthers

7.5

+110/-130

Eagles

7

+105/-125

Giants

7

-110/-110

Falcons

7

-115/-105

Bengals

6.5

-105/-115

Jets

6

-130/+110

Jaguars

6

-120/+110

Texans

5

+110/-130

Lions

5

-130/+110

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Decent numbers, but seem a bit on the high end with few teams predicted to be really bad (just 2 teams with 5 wins), and yes I'm accounting for this being out of 17 games played. Also the best team is still losing 5 games, when we usually have a few 1-3 loss teams. 

 

AFC top 5=53.5(avg 10.7) next 5=45.5 (avg 9.1) last 6=39 (avg 6.5)

NFC top 5=53(avg 10.6) next 5=43.5 (avg 8.7) last 6=41 (avg 6.8)

 

Total wins (275.5) are only a bit off potential wins during the expanded NFL season with 272 games. 

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6 minutes ago, stevegrab said:

Decent numbers, but seem a bit on the high end with few teams predicted to be really bad (just 2 teams with 5 wins), and yes I'm accounting for this being out of 17 games played. Also the best team is still losing 5 games, when we usually have a few 1-3 loss teams. 

 

AFC top 5=53.5(avg 10.7) next 5=45.5 (avg 9.1) last 6=39 (avg 6.5)

NFC top 5=53(avg 10.6) next 5=43.5 (avg 8.7) last 6=41 (avg 6.8)

 

Total wins (275.5) are only a bit off potential wins during the expanded NFL season with 272 games. 

Yeah, I was surprised to by the 12-5 prediction for KC, especially since they're predicted to win the most. Good math, I didn't even double check that with the total wins.

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4 minutes ago, purplemonster said:

I'll take the under on the Texans 

That's easy money.

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4 minutes ago, Shaft said:

That's easy money.

I was editing my comment because I forgot it was a 17-game season now. But nevertheless I'd still take the under. I wouldn't bet all my money because they have two games against the Jags and one against the Jets. 

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I'll take the Cowboys at 9.5 winning the division. 

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6 minutes ago, irish said:

I'll take the Cowboys at 9.5 winning the division. 

 

No doubt. They can easily win 10+ if Dak can stay on the field. 

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1 hour ago, MustOfBeenDrunk said:

Bengals over 6.5 looks like a good bet  

I agree, but it depends on Burrow.

Edited by Shaft

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I care more about players than teams, but 9 wins seems like a stiff order for the Dolphins.  Pats and Bills twice (four losses) and at Tampa Bay, at Tennessee, and hosting the Ravens and Colts all seem like probable losses as well.  That means the Dolphins have to win all 9 of their remaining "toss-up" games.

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10 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I care more about players than teams, but 9 wins seems like a stiff order for the Dolphins.  Pats and Bills twice (four losses) and at Tampa Bay, at Tennessee, and hosting the Ravens and Colts all seem like probable losses as well.  That means the Dolphins have to win all 9 of their remaining "toss-up" games.

 

I wouldn't consider the Pats games automatic losses for the Dolphins, not after splitting with them last year and winning 3 more games. Is Cam Newtowon going turn into Tom Brady? 

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26 minutes ago, stevegrab said:

 

I wouldn't consider the Pats games automatic losses for the Dolphins, not after splitting with them last year and winning 3 more games. Is Cam Newtowon going turn into Tom Brady? 

 

No, but the Pats get back the other half of their defense that opted out last year.

 

And then there's Damien Harris' breakout season to contend with...

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Colts seem too high to me with Wentz out. Would go over under of 8 personally. 

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11 minutes ago, heehawks said:

Colts seem too high to me with Wentz out. 

 

I don't think they count preseason games.

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Ravens, Seahawks and Colts all under 10 wins. Titans over 9.5 wins. Washington over 8 wins. Arizona over 8 wins. Bears over 7.5 wins. Bengals over 6.5 wins. Texans and Detroit under 5 wins.

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Take the under on the Chiefs. Something is off with this team and I'm not sure what.

 

Just a weird feeling I have about them this year. 

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On 8/19/2021 at 8:07 AM, Docniner said:

Ravens, Seahawks and Colts all under 10 wins. 

Seahawks are a better defensive team than last year. And they were a 12 win team.  Wilson's worst season was a 9 win season.  Now they have added a game.  I'm a homer, but I'd go over on that one.

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9 minutes ago, Bobby Brown said:

Seahawks are a better defensive team than last year. And they were a 12 win team.  Wilson's worst season was a 9 win season.  Now they have added a game.  I'm a homer, but I'd go over on that one.

 

Is that what the science says? 

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I think the Niners are going to struggle.  Tough division and Jimmy G is going to get off to a slow start and they'll switch to Lance, who will have them as a .500 team or worse.

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