darin3 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 5 hours ago, League_Champion said: Good call TY! Entertaining game. Got enough out of Allen and Henry to get me a win in one of my dynasties, but Allen got enough to give me an L in one of my redrafts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 2 hours ago, League_Champion said: It was the right call though. You won't have a better chance to win it in OT. The play call is what's sketchy, I would of rolled him out. I think it was a mistake, you can disagree. Tie the game up on a chip shot FG and take your chances in OT, if you're a championship caliber team you shouldn't be afraid to play in OT. I guess they realized their fantastic first half defense disappeared in the 2nd half and figured TEN will score a TD when they get the ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, stevegrab said: I think it was a mistake, you can disagree. Tie the game up on a chip shot FG and take your chances in OT, if you're a championship caliber team you shouldn't be afraid to play in OT. You just contradicted yourself. If you're a Championship Team you win it right there. Why bother with OT? How do you have a better shot in OT? You're about to score there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramhock Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 I didn't understand the point of going for it. Was never going to sneak that into the endzone. If make it, you buy one more nonrun at it. If ball was on 1 foot line, I agree with going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted October 19, 2021 Author Share Posted October 19, 2021 How confident are you kicking that FG, going into OT and putting the ball in Henry's hands who's been running amok all day? Why?? You're right there, win it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purplemonster Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 I don't see any problem going for it. You get that, only 0.5 yards, and still have a timeout or two and very likely win outright. I'd be surprised if that wasn't the best percentage play to go for it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purplemonster Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 FWIW analytics argue it is the highest % play at least on ESPN's model. https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/buf/buffalo-bills ESPN's win probability model agreed, narrowly, with the Bills' decision to go for it on 4th-and-1 from the 3-yard line with 22 seconds remaining. Bills win probability going for it: 48.9% Bills win probability if they attempted field goal: 47.5% The Bills needed a 59% chance of conversion to justify going for it. Expected conversion rate was 61% BUT the model doesn't know it was a short 1 to go, so the expected conversion rate -- and therefore WP go -- was really a little higher. Share Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Brown Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 (edited) Josh Allen slipped and the guy on D hit the gap perfectly. Allen almost made the first on a supremely athletic play right before. A half yard felt like taking candy from a baby. He's an MVP candidate and you put it in his hands. If TEN won the toss and scored a TD, the armchair critique would've been much worse. Good call to put the game in your best players hands and not a defense who gave up 34 points on the night. Edited October 20, 2021 by Bobby Brown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 8 hours ago, Bobby Brown said: Josh Allen slipped and the guy on D hit the gap perfectly. Allen almost made the first on a supremely athletic play right before. A half yard felt like taking candy from a baby. He's an MVP candidate and you put it in his hands. If TEN won the toss and scored a TD, the armchair critique would've been much worse. Good call to put the game in your best players hands and not a defense who gave up 34 points on the night. Very well stated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 13 hours ago, purplemonster said: FWIW analytics argue it is the highest % play at least on ESPN's model. https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/buf/buffalo-bills ESPN's win probability model agreed, narrowly, with the Bills' decision to go for it on 4th-and-1 from the 3-yard line with 22 seconds remaining. Bills win probability going for it: 48.9% Bills win probability if they attempted field goal: 47.5% The Bills needed a 59% chance of conversion to justify going for it. Expected conversion rate was 61% BUT the model doesn't know it was a short 1 to go, so the expected conversion rate -- and therefore WP go -- was really a little higher. Share I believe in math and numbers, but don't know the details behind these various models for win probability that are always cited. Do they factor in the quality of the teams on the field at that time? Or is it just "55% of the time when you do this thing the result is this." The second guessing is going to happen no matter what, and if you go for it and fail of course people will question why not just kick the FG and tie it. If you kick the FG instead, lose the coin toss and give up a TD people should ask why your defense cannot hold the opponent on a critical drive. Or win the damn coin toss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted October 20, 2021 Author Share Posted October 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, stevegrab said: Do they factor in the quality of the teams on the field at that time? Or is it just "55% of the time when you do this thing the result is this." What don't you see? How are your chances any better otherwise? First you need to MAKE THE FG, then you HOPE to win the coin toss and then pray that Henry doesn't shred you like he's been doing all game. And you still have to score regardless. You were not going to have a better opportunity than right there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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