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Predicting available picks in redraft league


seh0872
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In early September, I draft in on the turn in a 12-team, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1FLEX PPR redraft league.  Because the roster has both 3 WRs AND a Flex I'm working on my draft strategy.  I do not like picking 12th!  But I can't change that, so...

 

Using composite ADP to predict the draft's first four rounds, I should be able to pick from the following guys: RB: Mixon (maybe), Swift, Javonte, Aaron Jones. WR; Diggs, Adams, Chase (maybe), Lamb, TE: Kelce (maybe), Andrews

 

If I go aggressive with RBs and take Mixon/Swift, the next round will see my starting WRs dwindle to Brandin Cooks, DJ Moore, Mike Williams, DK Metcalf, Waddle, or Diontae.

If I go aggressive with WRS and take Diggs and Adams, the next round will see my starting RBs dwindle to Breece Hall, James Conner, Akers, or David Montgomery.

If I balance and go 1 RB/1 WR (say Mixon and Diggs), my #2RB and WRs will come from the above lists.

 

So...what do you think?  How would you handle drafting on the turn?

 

This is also a deep bench league (8 players) with no trading allowed.  So the draft really matters.

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2 hours ago, Chief Dick said:

To me if you have to start two running backs I'd make sure I got at least one bona-fide starter with one of my first two picks. 

 

Agreed, but then again I don't want DJ Moore as my WR1 either, so I am most definitely going best RB / best WR with my first two picks at #12/#13.

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22 hours ago, darin3 said:

 

Agreed, but then again I don't want DJ Moore as my WR1 either, so I am most definitely going best RB / best WR with my first two picks at #12/#13.

 

I'm with you on that, but the opposite scenario doesn't seem horrible. Conner wouldn't be a bad pick up as RB1 -- not ideal, but still top 20. Akers probably too, though with injury risk, though both have RB1 upside.

 

I'm probably going 1RB/1WR though.  Did I say I hate picking 12th?  :)

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I develop a list like you have of possible available players, but I don't make a hard and fast determination to grab certain positions. I let the draft come to me, see who's there, and adjust as I need to. Sometimes value players are still on the board I didn't foresee, and I'd rather be flexible and not miss out than plan on RB-WR-WR-RB etc to begin a draft.

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