Keeper League not keeping any player strategy.....roll the dice?

[The Badfinger]

ESPN League.  First year of doing keepers.

We can keep one player.

2022 Keeper Designated Round = Beginning of Draft (your designated keeper is your first round pick).

We can keep one player.

I have pick #5.  My three players that are potential keeper are Chase, N Harris and J Allen.  Right now, I am leaning towards Chase.

The best players rostered by the teams ahead of me in the draft are as follows:

Pick 1 = Kupp

Pick 2 = Barkley

Pick 3= N Chubb

Pick 4 = J Taylor

In addition, due to a manager leaving the league, Justin Jefferson and CMC are free agents and available in the draft.

Also, teams with picks 6, 8 and 10 have no players on their rosters so they will not be keeping anyone and will be making a first round pick..so JJ and CMC will not make to the second round.

Since I am picking ahead of all teams with no players, that means I might have a crack at JJ if I want to take a chance.

I suspect the guy with Barkley may not keep anybody...frankly because he probably won't be able to figure out how on his phone.

The guy with Chubb has told me he is probably keeping Chubb...I really don't think he understands what happens if he keeps nobody  I give it a 50/50 chance he keep Chubb.

The guys with Kupp and Taylor will keep those two...at least I believe the guy with Kupp will.  Taylor is a lock to be kept.

So...do I throw Chase back into the draft and hope that three of the first four picks are keepers, meaning I have a shot at JJ..with worse case getting Chase back.  Or is the risk of picks 2 and 3 not keeping anyone and me not getting JJ or Chase and ending up with CMC too high?  If picks 1, 2, and 3 do not keep anyone, I still could end up with CMC or Kupp instead of Chase.

So...do I roll the dice, give up Chase for a shot at JJ knowing that either Kupp or CMC would be my booby price if I crap out?

Draft is 30 Aug at 7pm.

Edited August 30, 2022 by The Badfinger

[tdybaz]

Bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.... keep Chase, who is in the running for the best WR in the league, both in real life and in fantasy.

[Big Country]

It's generally considered a top 5 for fantasy this year (though some like to throw a couple ther names in there). If you toss Chase back, you will still end up with one of those 5 players even if no one in front of you keeps anyone.

You just have to rate those 5 - JT, CMC, JJ, Chase, Kupp - and depending on where you have Chase ranked, determine your risk tolerance.

As it is laid out, to me, it is a near zero risk option to toss Chase back. Though I can't fathom why the guy with the #1 pick would keep Kupp when he knows the worst case scenario is he can just draft Kupp back, best case was someone he likes more is available.

[JumpingJehosaphat]

12 minutes ago, Big Country said:

It's generally considered a top 5 for fantasy this year (though some like to throw a couple ther names in there). If you toss Chase back, you will still end up with one of those 5 players even if no one in front of you keeps anyone.

You just have to rate those 5 - JT, CMC, JJ, Chase, Kupp - and depending on where you have Chase ranked, determine your risk tolerance.

As it is laid out, to me, it is a near zero risk option to toss Chase back. Though I can't fathom why the guy with the #1 pick would keep Kupp when he knows the worst case scenario is he can just draft Kupp back, best case was someone he likes more is available.

I concur. How many teams in the league, 10? PPR?

[dirtyharry319]

Really depends on how you want to build your roster.  If you want to start with a top 5 WR, the choice between Chase and JJ is a coin flip.  Both are top 5, maybe top 3 so it's a wash.  If you want to start with a RB, then roll the dice, do not keep anyone and hope that CMC is there.  That is risky on 2 fronts...1 that he will be there and 2 with his past injury history.  The WR start is way less risky and I believe you will be able to hunt for good RB's in the 2nd or 3rd round.  If this is PPR scoring, I start with the WR (Chase) ...my 2 cents

[The Badfinger]

12 hours ago, JumpingJehosaphat said:

I concur. How many teams in the league, 10? PPR?

10 Teams, 0.5 PPR

[seh0872]

Boy, I don't think I like this format much as the cost of a first rounder generally means the only way you keep someone is if he's ranked higher than your pick position.  At 1.05, that's pretty much limited to Taylor, CMC, Cook, Ekeler and/or Kupp.  No big deal that Taylor and Kupp are already kept; they would have been gone by 1.05 anyway.

The fact that Barkley and Chubb may be kept by 1.02 and 1.03 is, uh, odd, especially with CMC and JJeff being draftable.  Let's assume these two guys figure it out and keep nobody.  Taylor, Kupp, CMC and .... Cook?  Ekeler? Henry? go first and you'll have your choice of JJeff, Najee and whichever two RBs are not selected at 1.04.  Ekeler is a slight upgrade at 1.05, Henry's probably right on the mark, as is Jeff.  By most ADP lists, Chase would be a reach at 1.05, falling instead to the back of the first round (or even start of the 2nd in a 10-man league).

Even if JJeff gets taken, you'll still have you choice of Cook, Ekeler, Henry, Najee and Chase.  So, either way, if you really want to start WR you are 95% certain to have at least one (if not both) JJeff and Chase available at 1.05, and if by some bizarre twist both are taken, then you're looking at starting with CMC, Cook, Ekeler or Henry.  But I really doubt that will be the case.

Throw him back and see what falls to you.

 

Edited August 30, 2022 by seh0872

[The Badfinger]

1 hour ago, dirtyharry319 said:

Really depends on how you want to build your roster.  If you want to start with a top 5 WR, the choice between Chase and JJ is a coin flip.  Both are top 5, maybe top 3 so it's a wash.  If you want to start with a RB, then roll the dice, do not keep anyone and hope that CMC is there.  That is risky on 2 fronts...1 that he will be there and 2 with his past injury history.  The WR start is way less risky and I believe you will be able to hunt for good RB's in the 2nd or 3rd round.  If this is PPR scoring, I start with the WR (Chase) ...my 2 cents

It is 0.5 PPR.   

 

 

[The Badfinger]

30 minutes ago, seh0872 said:

Boy, I don't think I like this format much as the cost of a first rounder generally means the only way you keep someone is if he's ranked higher than your pick position.  At 1.05, that's pretty much limited to Taylor, CMC, Cook, Ekeler and/or Kupp.  No big deal that Taylor and Kupp are already kept; they would have been gone by 1.05 anyway.

The fact that Barkley and Chubb may be kept by 1.02 and 1.03 is, uh, odd, especially with CMC and JJeff being draftable.  Let's assume these two guys figure it out and keep nobody.  Taylor, Kupp, CMC and .... Cook?  Ekeler? Henry? go first and you'll have your choice of JJeff, Najee and whichever two RBs are not selected at 1.04.  Ekeler is a slight upgrade at 1.05, Henry's probably right on the mark, as is Jeff.  By most ADP lists, Chase would be a reach at 1.05, falling instead to the back of the first round (or even start of the 2nd in a 10-man league).

Even if JJeff gets taken, you'll still have you choice of Cook, Ekeler, Henry, Najee and Chase.  So, either way, if you really want to start WR you are 95% certain to have at least one (if not both) JJeff and Chase available at 1.05, and if by some bizarre twist both are taken, then you're looking at starting with CMC, Cook, Ekeler or Henry.  But I really doubt that will be the case.

Throw him back and see what falls to you.

 

I really doubt the guy at 2 will be keeping Barkley.  If he understands what is going on, he would make a move for CMC.  Or not keep anyone by "accident".  The guy picking 3rd told me he is a RB guy, so I would think he would keep Chubb, or grab Barkley/CMC/Ekeler.  So down to pick 4 and that guy will keep JT.   The guy picking 7 loves his Deebo and is keeping him.  Guy picking 9 is keeping Cook.  I have no doubt the first four picks in the second round will scoop up the rest of the top RBs...Barkely, Kamara, Ekeler, etc.  Plus I know somebody will grab QB just to be clever...always happens.   I would be happy if one of Harris/Mixon/Jones is available at 2.05

[1fastdoc]

I drafted Chase in the first round with the 6th pick.  Before him went Taylor, Kupp, JJ, CMC and Ekeler.  So you're not likely to do any worse.  With so many WR putting up solid production I tend to favor them first.  Also less risk of an injury taking out your first pick if it is a RB, like CMC.  

That said, if I had to choose between JJ, Kupp and Chase, I'd be inclined to take Chase.  I think the combo of him and Burrow are going to be excellent this year and I'd be willing to bet he'll have the highest floor.

[stevegrab]

17 hours ago, Big Country said:

It's generally considered a top 5 for fantasy this year (though some like to throw a couple ther names in there). If you toss Chase back, you will still end up with one of those 5 players even if no one in front of you keeps anyone.

You just have to rate those 5 - JT, CMC, JJ, Chase, Kupp - and depending on where you have Chase ranked, determine your risk tolerance.

As it is laid out, to me, it is a near zero risk option to toss Chase back. Though I can't fathom why the guy with the #1 pick would keep Kupp when he knows the worst case scenario is he can just draft Kupp back, best case was someone he likes more is available.

Exactly with that kind of structure for keepers there is no reason for the person who picks first to ever keep a player. Especially if there is any period of time between announcing keepers and the draft. He could keep Kupp, and something could happen before the draft that makes his value drop. (Not likely but possible.)

I have the first pick in our keeper draft, each team keeps 5 players from their roster. I'm struggling on my last keeper, but only because I'm down to one of 3 players. I can essentially keep 6, but expect there to be some better options in the draft available to me, including rookies like Breece Hall.