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1st pick


Decisions
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Would you go Kupp or Jefferson over Taylor in a 3 WR league with the first pick?

problem is, gonna be looking at tyreek or other risky wr/ wr 2’s by the time it gets back to me at 24.

 

12 team league 

1 qb, 2 RB, 3 wr, 1 te, 1 flex, k, dst

ppr scoring with bonus for 100yd receiving / running and over 300 yds passing for qb.

 

 

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No. You take JT and don't look back.

Tyreek and those "risky" WRs as you call them are a hell of a lot better than the RBs that you'd be looking at.

The 1 spot is ideal for a hero RB approach (obviously adjust based on how the draft flows), but you start with JT, then at 2/3 can snag 2 guys like Deebo, Hill, AJB, Higgins, Pittman, Evans etc (whichever you have ranked highest and that make it there), then at 4/5 still some really good WRs, maybe get your elite TE if a guy like Schultz/Waller/Kittle there, at 6/7 you an grab an RB if you feel the need, a guy like Stevenson/Singletary or someone that slid, then at 8/9 you can get QB and start adding depth.

The risk with going RB at the 2/3 turn is that the dropoff has already happened (unless someone slips or your league goes WR or QB heavy early, which does not happen that often in "local" leagues), so you're chasing RB points there while you can instead snag 2 of the end of the Tier 2/3 (depending on how you tier them) WRs and build a sizeable advantage at WR while taking less of a hit at RB.

Edited by Big Country
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3 minutes ago, Big Country said:

No. You take JT and don't look back.

Tyreek and those "risky" WRs as you call them are a hell of a lot better than the RBs that you'd be looking at.

The 1 spot is ideal for a hero RB approach (obviously adjust based on how the draft flows), but you start with JT, then at 2/3 can snag 2 guys like Deebo, Hill, AJB, Higgins, Pittman, Evans etc (whichever you have ranked highest and that make it there), then at 4/5 still some really good WRs, maybe get your elite TE if a guy like Schultz/Waller/Kittle there, at 6/7 you an grab an RB if you feel the need, a guy like Stevenson/Singletary or someone that slid, then at 8/9 you can get QB and start adding depth.

The risk with going RB at the 2/3 turn is that the dropoff has already happened (unless someone slips or your league goes WR or QB heavy early, which does not happen that often in "local" leagues), so you're chasing RB points there while you can instead snag 2 of the end of the Tier 2/3 (depending on how you tier them) WRs and build a sizeable advantage at WR while taking less of a hit at RB.

Fantastic breakdown, thank you!  You answered some other things I was bouncing around in my mind as well!

the team with best WR’s is almost always the team that wins this league (me last year with Kupp, Diggs, pittman and renfrow)

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3 minutes ago, Decisions said:

Fantastic breakdown, thank you!  You answered some other things I was bouncing around in my mind as well!

the team with best WR’s is almost always the team that wins this league (me last year with Kupp, Diggs, pittman and renfrow)

To be clear (and I think you get this), you can't go in with a dogmatic approach of take this position at this pick no matter what, you have to be flexible in approach and take what the draft gives you. That said, having a rough plan similar to what I laid out above is generally a good approach for leagues with your structure (for example, if it was non-PPR, or was 2 WR with no flex, my "plan" would be very different)

Also, given how many owners will dogmatically take 2 RBs in their 1st two picks no matter what, you are often going to be presented with massive value opportunities.

One other point - you are picking in a turn - you need to throw ADP out the window as there is no "let's see if this guy makes it back to me". If a player is the best player on your board, even if his ADP is 12-15 away and it seems like a "reach", you need to take him ahead of ADP. There is essentially no such thing as a reach from the turn, especially the further on in the draft you are

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