Still can't quite commit to Hero QB in Superflex w/ draft tonight...talk me off the ledge!

[Butkus]

So I'm in a 12 team .5PPR superflex with roster requirements = 1QB, 2RB, 3WR/TE, 1 Sflex (QB/RB/WR/TE), 1K and 1 D.  Standard Redraft = no keeper/no dynasty.

While all I've read and all advice I've seen here says go QB heavy in the first few rounds, I'm still struggling with where such a strategy will leave me vs. other positions.  Here's why:

This league has significant bonuses for length of TD and yardage that seem (to me) weighted to RB and especially WR/TE, broken down as:

QB: 5pt TD under 50yds, 10pt 50-74yds, 15pt 75 yds +, w/ Total Passing yardage bonus 200-249 yds = 1pt, 250-299 yds 3pts, 300-349 yds = 5pts, 350-399 yards = 10pts nd 400+ yds = 15pts

RB: 5pt TD 1-4tds, 10pt TD 5-24 yds, 15 pt TD 25-49 yds, 20pt TD, 50-74 yds and 25 pt TD 75+ yds; w total COMBINED rush/receive yd bonuses 75-99yds = 1pt, 100-134 yds = 3points, 135-169 yds 5 points and 170+ yds = 10 points

WR: 10pt TD 1--24 yds, 15 pt TD 25-49 yds, 20pt TD, 50-74 yds and 25 pt TD 75+ yds; w total COMBINED rush/receive yd bonuses 75-99yds = 1pt, 100-134 yds = 3points, 135-169 yds 5 points and 170+ yds = 10 points

So a WR catching a 2 yd TD gets 10 pts while an RB or QB with TD of same length gets 5.  QB sits at 5pts for anything under 50 yds while RBs and WRs get further bumps in that range.  Yardage bonuses seem more even, perhaps even titled to 400yd + /game passers.  Biggest single player scores each week seem to come from WRs and RBs but QBs more consistent.

It does seem in looking at our league history that top 2-3 scorers each year are usually a breakout WR/RB (Kupp last year) with a pretty big fall off to rest of top 10, with QBs taking up about 5/6 slots in the overall top 12 by end of year.

Add to that that this league usually only selects 4-5 (maybe 6) QBs out of 24 picks in first two rounds....so you can't really count on top tier WRs/RBs if you go Hero QB.  But I guess you have that big advantage at QB.

 

Anyway, I've been at this a long time but never had the guts to draft QBs early in this format.  However, seriously considering it this year after all I've seen here and elsewhere.  But gun shy.

Draft is tonight - Help me out and many thanks!

[Bree22]

Go QB 1st round.  Than RB/WR the following rounds.  I would definitely try for a 10 or 12 RB in round 2.  In the 4th round you probably still get something like Cousins or Carr type.  

 

you did not say what draft spot you have.

[Butkus]

Thanks Bree.  Your suggesting is kind of where I'm leaning -

Actually just learned I'm drafting in 11 slot --which I think actually helps me here.  At 11, I can actually sit back and see what 1st round looks like w. first 10 picks vs. my defined tiers by position.   If a J.Allen somehow falls to me, snap him up, then go value round 2.  If all of 4 of the QB's I have ranked in top tier go before my 1.11, then I may go value WR/RB there and a tier 2 QB in round 2....   vs my usual RB/WR first rounds of past years.  Hmmmmm.  

 

[Bree22]

I wouldn't be surprise if you see 5 or more QBs go before 11.  Allen, Lamar, Mahomes and Herbert all gone.  I did a 10 team 2 QB league 6 QBs in 1st then 2 to 3 every round after that.  The 2nd round felt like a 1st round in a traditional flex league. 

 

Good luck.  I am interested.  Let me know how the 1st few rounds end up going and the team you ended up with. 

[Butkus]

Thanks Bree - to be honest, I'd be a bit surprised to see 5 QBs go before my pick....I did a little look back at 2021 and 2020 drafts, and check out this analysis on # of selections by position across the first 6 rounds ahead of each draft pick:

2020

1.11 - 3 QB, 6 RB, 1 WR/TE

2.02 - 4 QB, 8 RB, 1 WR/TE

3.11 - 6 QB, 15 RB, 13 WR/TE

4.02 - 6 QB, 16 RB, 16 WR/TE

5.11 - 10 QB, 21 RB, 27 WR/TE

6.02 - 11 QB, 21 RB, 28 WR/TE

2021

1.11 - 2 QB, 5 RB, 3 WR/TE

2.02 - 2 QB, 8 RB, 3 WR/TE

3.11 - 6 QB, 14 RB, 14 WR/TE

4.02 - 7 QB, 14 RB, 17 WR/TE

5.11 - 10 QB, 22 RB, 26 WR/TE

6.02 - 11 QB, 22 RB, 28 WR/TE

 

Crazy consistent no?  Don't have data going back further but based on relatively small sample here we have a local huckleberry league drafting trend. If I believe it, I could roll dice and wait until round 5 and get a top 10 QB .  But we have a couple new guys and do I trust it?   Got me torn for sure.

 

That said, I've gone RB/WR or RB/RB the first two rounds for the past number of years and frankly have been middle of the pack during that time.  Time to shake it up a bit....gonna see where the tiers fall.

Would love @bigcountry or @League_Champion to chime in here as I appreciate all their time on this forum and wise words.

[Butkus]

Ok @Bree22, here's how it went last night....

Here's my team with draft position taken

QB: Herbert (1.11), Hurts (3.11), D. Mills (12.2)

RB:  A. Jones (4.2), E. Mitchell (6.2), A. Gibson (7.11), R. Penny (9.11)

WR/TE: S. Diggs (2.2), B. Cooks (5.11), C. Kirk (8.2) , B. Aiyuk (10.2), T. Lockett (11.11), K. Toney (13.11)

K: G. Joseph

DEF: MIN, DEN

 

So my research on my leagues positional drafting trends worked out, allowing me to snag Herbert at 1.11, take Diggs at 2.2 and had Hurts come all the way back to me at 3.11 (he was 11th QB taken after a large than usual run on QBs in rounds 2 and 3.)

This strategy leaves me with work to do at at RB and I need some WRs to emerge, but overall, very decent team with very strong QBs in a Superflex so I'll take it.  I won't even get into my leagues antiquated drafting rules that force you to take 2 D's or 2 Ks along with other oddities on max position limits etc...

 

Many thanks for your help and joining me on this draft journey.

[Yoyo]

Can't believe Jones lasted to 4.2. I think your RB are okay, as I like Penny as your rb3. Pretty good draft I would say 

[Butkus]

Thanks @Yoyo!  the 12 swing drafter took Russell Wilson and Cousins right after my Hurts when I thought for sure they'd snap up A Jones.

Don't love his time share but expect some more receiving from him this year which plays well in our league even beyond .5 PPR (receiving TD's get a bump in my league's weird scoring system)

 

[Bree22]

I like what you got.  especially getting hurts in the 3rd.  You do have a very short bench which I hope means there are some WW options going forward.  As long as Toney stays healthy he is going to be good and I think more consistent then Aiyuk and Lockett will be.  You got Jones at RB which is really good and you Gibson for a few weeks at least.  Just keep an eye on the RBs on WW.  I think there are a few late rounders that have a chance to finish in the top 20 this yr.