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Why the line on the superbowl hasn't changed


crispirons
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just curious what others thought about this. the line opened at 6 or 6.5 depending on where you looked and quickly moved to 7 the first day. since then, no movement at all. why?? the bettors haven't come forward yet??? the money is coming in evenly on both sides?? what gives??

 

i think the oddsmakers might have gotten this one dead on. just a hunch. logically, i would think the patriots beat them soundly, 10-20 pts. perhaps. with owens healthy, i would have lowered that a tad 7-14. anyway, if you are playing this game, lay the extra wood and buy a half a pt. it may be the difference. just a crispy premonition.

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just curious what others thought about this.  the line opened at 6 or 6.5 depending on where you looked and quickly moved to 7 the first day.  since then, no movement at all.  why??  the bettors haven't come forward yet???  the money is coming in evenly on both sides??  what gives??

 

i think the oddsmakers might have gotten this one dead on.  just a hunch.  logically, i would think the patriots beat them soundly, 10-20 pts. perhaps. with owens healthy, i would have lowered that a tad 7-14.  anyway, if you are playing this game, lay the extra wood and buy a half a pt.  it may be the difference.  just a crispy premonition.

 

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Actually, after the juice went significantly Philly's way today and yesterday, the line finally moved to -7.5 on my book.

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I am kind of surprised, I was expecting it to be around 8.5 - 9 by the time Sunday rolled around.  Maybe the money has been coming in pretty even.

 

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I've seen the juice move. I got NE -7 but paying -105 when it usually is -110.

 

That would indicate money going Philly's way. My site is still at -7 though.

 

Slim

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I've seen the juice move. I got NE -7 but paying -105 when it usually is -110.

 

That would indicate money going Philly's way. My site is still at -7 though.

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I'm a math whiz, seriously, I whiz a variable number of times a day due my insistence on drinking water constantly. However, sometimes I still need help.

 

If the juice is dropping on the favorite and the spread is rising, aren't those contradicting things as to where the $$$ is going?

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BUMP

 

I actually was curious if anyone had an answer to this:

 

QUOTE

If the juice is dropping on the favorite and the spread is rising, aren't those contradicting things as to where the $$$ is going?

 

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Umm I think they show the same thing. I'm not exactly sure how it works, but I think what happens is if a good deal of money is coming in on a certain team, they move the juice first before moving the line. So as an example, say Team A is favored by 3 points at (-105) -- which means you have to put $105 down to win $100. Say a bunch of yahoos put a certain amount of money on Team A with the points. They don't want to move the line just yet, so they'll just adjust the juice, to say, (-110) -- meaning you gotta drop $110 to win $100. If the bets STILL keep coming in, despite the adjusted juice, then perhaps they adjust the line to -3.5. I could be completely off base here, that's just the way it was explained to me by some grumpy old grizzled man in a Vegas sportsbook one day.

Edited by darin3
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BUMP

 

I actually was curious if anyone had an answer to this:

 

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OK I reread your question... do you mean "juice is dropping" to be, say (-105) to (-110)? Or "dropping" meaning (-115) to (-110)? If you meant the latter, then yes, that would be contradictory...

 

:D

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OK I reread your question... do you mean "juice is dropping" to be, say (-105) to (-110)?  Or "dropping" meaning (-115) to (-110)?  If you meant the latter, then yes, that would be contradictory...

 

:D

 

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The Super Bowl, for instance, at an unnamed Sportsbook, is offering the following line:

 

NE -7.5 -105

PHI -115

 

On Sunday, this was the line:

 

NE -7 -110

PHI -110

 

So, the line changed in favor of New England. That USUALLY indicates that NE-7 is getting more $$$ than PHI+7, so the book changes the line to balance things out a bit.

 

Now, the juice is confusing me.....

 

You could have bet NE-7 or PHI +7 for $110 to win $100 on Sunday. Yesterday, you only had to bet $105 to get NE-7.5, but you had to pay $115 to get PHI+7.5.

 

So, in essence, the line change of a half-point indicates $$$ is going on NE, but by raising the price of the juice on the half-point, doesn't that indicate the $$$ is going on PHI?

 

I realize that none of this is an exact science and there's so much going on at the sportsbooks with this game, that how the straight line fluctuates for the Super Bowl is completely irrelevant in terms of, say, the Illinois-Michigan St. game last night.

 

Just curious if someone could straighten out the logic, if there is any....

Edited by godtomsatan
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