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answering today, i would probably lean towards jones. i don't think burleson can handle double teams a la jerry porter. if minny picks up one of the better free agents, i would think a lot harder about it. d*mn the quarterbacks this year for making me think things over and over and over......

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Granted Moss is a stud and losing will hurt, but Minn is pretty deep at WR. They have M. Robinson, Burleson, and K. Campbell. Pick up a decent FA wideout and use O. Smith to catch passes out of the backfield and Culpepper can still be huge. I am actually leaning towards C-Pep but Jones intrigues me given his youth and Parcells likes to run the ball.

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If I was compiling a draft list, I'd have them both in the top 25. Neither in the first round. Jones a little higher than Culpepper.

 

I'll look it up when I got the time, but when Moss was out, I don't recall Culpepper missing a beat. Jones certainly finished strong, and will certainly be worthy of a 2nd Round pick. Let's put it this way, if Jones was the 2nd back I picked, I'd be happy. If the stud RBs are gone, I'd have no problem taking Culpepper with my 2nd pick. Other than Manning, who's better?

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My initial reaction was Culpepper. But after thinking about it for a second, I might be tempted to go with Jones. The reasons for this are the differential in TD points in your league, as well as my thought that the likely loss of Randy Moss should hurt Culpepper's numbers anyway you look at it. They're probably both 2nd rounders, but I'd go with Jones.

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I'd have no problem taking Culpepper with my 2nd pick. Other than Manning, who's better?

 

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If the Moss trade goes through (and depending on what Minnesota does to replace him), I just might move McNabb ahead of Culpepper on my QB rankings for next season...am I talking crazy?

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I drafted Jones last year because I thought he had all the goods to be a fantasy stud. He got hurt and ruined all of my plans. If he STAYS HEALTHY in 2005, I STILL think he's a fantasy stud and will produce in a big way!!!

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If the Moss trade goes through (and depending on what Minnesota does to replace him), I just might move McNabb ahead of Culpepper on my QB rankings for next season...am I talking crazy?

 

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I was still thinking about this so I did a little bit of numbers crunching this morning. Here are a few things that I found interesting:

 

Culpepper's pg stats with Moss this season (11 games) = 321.6 yds/ 2.6 TD / .72 INT

Culpepper's pg stats w/o Moss this season (5 games) = 235.8 yds/ 1.8 TD / .6 INT

 

That's the only time in his career that we've seen C-Pepp without Moss, and obviously his numbers took a big hit. He went down over 85 yards passing a game, and .8 of a TD. You can't blame the defenses that he faced when Moss was out either because they were collectively awful against the pass.

 

Here are the 5 D's he faced without Moss, with their NFL rank against the pass in parentheses: TEN(26), NYG(8), @IND(28), @GB(25), DET(20). *For the record, I counted the games where Moss only was on the field for a few plays limping, and didn't catch any balls, as without Moss...He only didn't step on the field at all for 2 games, but there were also 3 of the others that he didn't really play. I'd expect Culpepper's numbers to drop significantlly next season.

 

In contrast, Donovan McNabb, playing with a great WR for his first time this season in Terrell Owens saw his numbers increase dramatically. Below are his passing statistics from 2003 to 2004:

 

2003 (16 games) - 3216 yds / 16 TD / 11 INT

2004 (15 games) - 3875 yds / 31 TD / 8 INT

 

Per game that works out to:

 

2003: 201.0 yds / 1 TD / .68 INT

2004: 258.3 yds / 2 TD / .53 INT

 

A huge increase amounting to almost 60 yards passing and a full TD a game. Granted, McNabb was coming off a statistically awful 2003, but he still exceeded his best single season passing yardage total by over 500 yards, and added 6 passing TDs to his career high.

 

It could go either way really, but if Minnesota doesn't sign another very good WR to replace Randy Moss, I think I just might put McNabb ahead of him.

Edited by Skrappy1
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I figure even without Moss, CPep is the 3rd ranked QB. Jones should be a top ten RB next year, maybe a top 5. I think you need to ask yourself how much of a drop off will there be in QB's if you let CPep go, and how much of a drop off there will in be RB's if you let Jones go. I have Culpepper in my top tier, the last of the QB's in that tier, behind Manning and McNabb. Jones is in my second tier of RB's, but close to the top.

 

Because of the TD point differential, it's a close call. I don't see Jones lighting up the league as he did last year, teams will be better prepared to defend against him next year, I think. I do think he will be a top ten back. If I could get another top ten back through the draft and keep Culpepper, that is what I'd choose to do. On the other hand, there is no way I want to go into the season without at least one top ten RB in my lineup.

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I was still thinking about this so I did a little bit of numbers crunching this morning.  Here are a few things that I found interesting:

 

Culpepper's pg stats with Moss this season (11 games) = 321.6 yds/ 2.6 TD / .72 INT

Culpepper's pg stats w/o Moss this season (5 games) = 235.8 yds/ 1.8 TD / .6 INT

 

That's the only time in his career that we've seen C-Pepp without Moss, and obviously his numbers took a big hit.  He went down over 85 yards passing a game, and .8 of a TD.  You can't blame the defenses that he faced when Moss was out either because they were collectively awful against the pass. 

 

Here are the 5 D's he faced without Moss, with their NFL rank against the pass in parentheses: TEN(26), NYG(8), @IND(28), @GB(25), DET(20).  *For the record, I counted the games where Moss only was on the field for a few plays limping, and didn't catch any balls, as without Moss...He only didn't step on the field at all for 2 games, but there were also 3 of the others that he didn't really play.  I'd expect Culpepper's numbers to drop significantlly next season.

 

In contrast, Donovan McNabb, playing with a great WR for his first time this season in Terrell Owens saw his numbers increase dramatically.  Below are his passing statistics from 2003 to 2004:

 

2003 (16 games) - 3216 yds / 16 TD / 11 INT

2004 (15 games) - 3875 yds / 31 TD / 8 INT

 

Per game that works out to:

 

2003: 201.0 yds / 1 TD / .68 INT

2004: 258.3 yds / 2 TD / .53 INT

 

A huge increase amounting to almost 60 yards passing and a full TD a game.  Granted, McNabb was coming off a statistically awful 2003, but he still exceeded his best single season passing yardage total by over 500 yards, and added 6 passing TDs to his career high.

 

It could go either way really, but if Minnesota doesn't sign another very good WR to replace Randy Moss, I think I just might put McNabb ahead of him.

 

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Nice job Skrappy...good stuff.

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Culpepper's pg stats with Moss this season (11 games) = 321.6 yds/ 2.6 TD / .72 INT

Culpepper's pg stats w/o Moss this season (5 games) = 235.8 yds/ 1.8 TD / .6 INT

 

I'd expect Culpepper's numbers to drop significantlly next season.

 

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I'd keep Jones.

Now, I'm a bit biased here because I'm a Jones owner and a Cowboy fan to boot but...

 

In addition to the above, brilliantly compiled, stats you could also look at this.

 

In 16 games CPep had 39 TD passes.

In 11* games Moss had 13 TD receptions. That's a third of CPep's total and Moss was never really healthy for the 5-6 games after his return to the line-up.

That says to me that CPep putting up hugh numbers again is improbable.

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I like Jones as much as the next guy in Parcells offense and I am hearing a lot about TD differential, but does anyone really think Bledsoe is the answer to move that offense? And who is he going to throw to downfield? Granted, Culp will not throw 35 TDs this year unless they get another WR in there, but I don't see Jones getting more than 12 in that offense. That being said, Culp only needs 18 TDs next year to equal the points Jones would get for 12 TDs. I would keep Culpepper in a heartbeat based on that.

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That being said, Culp only needs 18 TDs next year to equal the points Jones would get for 12 TDs.  I would keep Culpepper in a heartbeat based on that.

 

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It's not about comparing total points with two players that play different positions...it's about comparing a player's points at a given position with other players at that given position. :D

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That being said, Culp only needs 18 TDs next year to equal the points Jones would get for 12 TDs.  I would keep Culpepper in a heartbeat based on that.

 

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It's not about comparing total points with two players that play different positions...it's about comparing a player's points at a given position with other players at that given position.  :D

 

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Thank you, Skrappy, for pointing that out.

If anyone isn't following this line of thinking consider this. 18 QBs threw for 18TDs or more last season, while only 10 RBs scored 12TDs or more last season. That alone, utilizing the 18 vs 12 comparison, makes the RB more valuable. When you introduce the fact that most FF leagues require you to start 2RBs and only 1QB, the RBs in that category become even more valuable.

 

This is not to say that Culpepper won't be more valuable in the grand scheme of things but if you're going to make a statistical analysis let's at least compare apples to apples.

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It's not about comparing total points with two players that play different positions...it's about comparing a player's points at a given position with other players at that given position.  :D

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Thank you, Skrappy, for pointing that out.

If anyone isn't following this line of thinking consider this.  18 QBs threw for 18TDs or more last season, while only 10 RBs scored 12TDs or more last season.  That alone, utilizing the 18 vs 12 comparison, makes the RB more valuable.  When you introduce the fact that most FF leagues require you to start 2RBs and only 1QB, the RBs in that category become even more valuable.

 

This is not to say that Culpepper won't be more valuable in the grand scheme of things but if you're going to make a statistical analysis let's at least compare apples to apples.

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Pepp is a top 5-10 fantasy stud.  Even if Jones breaks out, it won't be close to what Dante puts up.  IMO there is no choice here--it's Pepp.

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BS and Skrappy, you guys did a great job of explaining and summarizing, but it's obvious that people aren't getting the value concept. Good job though!!

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BS and Skrappy, you guys did a great job of explaining and summarizing, but it's obvious that people aren't getting the value concept.  Good job though!!

 

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Thanks rhip. And just for the hell of it, let's take this analysis one more step utilizing ROYAL's rationale...

Pepp is a top 5-10 fantasy stud.  Even if Jones breaks out, it won't be close to what Dante puts up.  IMO there is no choice here--it's Pepp.

 

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Let's assume Jones "breaking out" merely means he duplicates his rookie production. Of course, we will assume he plays 16 instead of just 8 games. By the way, he only started 7. The one he didn't start, he got a whopping 5 carries but I digress...

 

8 games

800+ rushing yards, 100+ rec yards, 7TDs

 

16 games

1600+ rushing yards, 200+ rec yards, 14 TDs

 

Those stats make him a "top 5-10 fantasy stud" as well. Even if you knock off 200 yds rushing he's still one of the top backs in the league and most of us have to start 2 RBs.

 

Culpepper had a career year and just lost arguably the most dangerous offensive weapon in the NFL.

 

This is anything but a no-brainer.

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