Picking 10th overall

[DuckSurprise]

Hi -

 

I'm drafting at 10 in a 12 team, redraft of a peformance league with pretty standard scoring (1 pt for 10yds rushing or receiving and 6pts all td's, QB's 1pt for every 25yds passing).

 

I feel like I must take an RB first round and might get a shot at someone like Corey Dillon, Domanick Davis, Clinton Portis or possibly Deuce at 1.10. My dilemma is whether or not to take a stud receiver with my 2.03 pick or to take a solid back like Kevin/Julius Jones, Rudi Johnson, Tiki Barber etc. I would really like to get a premium receiver on my team because if I leave the receiver until 3.10, I will be lucky to snag someone like Reggie Wayne at best. Then again, if I skip the RB2 at 2.03 and wait till 3.10 I will also be lucky to even grab a starter, more likely i'll be looking at one of the rookies. What looks better:

 

Deuce Mcallister

Julius Jones

Reggie Wayne

 

or

 

Deuce Mcallister

Cedric Benson

Randy Moss

 

This is all based on rough assumptions on how my league will most likely pick. Please give me some of your thoughts.

 

Thanks

[TecmoBeast]

lot of RBs this year, barely enough top-shelf WRs. I would go with Moss, TO personally. He could score as many TDs as a RB. If you're league rewards receptions, that would be even better

 

That's just me, i'm not winning any leagues either

[Haskel]

What are your starting requirements? If you start 2 RBs and 3 WRs, I could see looking hard at picking up a WR with the 2.03 pick. If only 2 WRs or Flex is involved, I'd go RB, RB then WR (unless TO or Moss is still available at 2.03 then I'd pickem up regardless).

 

 

Good Luck.

[yo mama]

That's a pretty close call.

 

Based on some subjective, back of the envelope calcuations I made, I think you'd be better off going RB-WR-RB.

 

The kind of RB you might expect at 2.3 could be like A. Green or Rudi Johnson. Based on last years stats they might give you something like 190 points. At 3.10 the WRs you could expect would be like Wayne or D-jax. I'd expect about 170 from those guys. So Team 1: 360 points.

 

Team two would have someone like Moss or TO at 2.3, who'd give you around 200 points, based on last years stats. The RBs available at 3.10 might be like Westbrook, or one of the rookies (who might put up Thomas Jones or Pittman-like numbers from last year) of about 170 points. So Team 2: 370.

 

Like I said, its a close call. I'd probably just go with the flow of the draft and see what falls to you at 2.3. If its amazing value at RB - like Barber, Dillon, of Dom. Davis - I think you have take RB.

 

A back like Julius Jones would also be hard to pass up because, even though his total points from last year were not that spectacular, he was a top-10 back in virtually every league when it came to points per game. Consider that he only played in 8 games last year (and in one of them he only took 5 snaps before he got hurt), yet accrued 928 combined yards and 7 TDs. That's pretty goddarned impressive. Extrapolate that out to 16 games and you're conservatively looking at 1500 combined yards and at least 10 or 11 TDs. Not bad for 2nd round value; enough, at least in my opinion, to settle on going for WRs at 3.10 and 4.3. Because you could still probably end up with like Wayne and D-jax as your starters, which is pretty sweet.

Edited July 14, 2005 by yo mama

[DuckSurprise]

Awesome analysis guys (particularly yomama's take), thanks a lot

 

My starting requirements that I forgot to include are 1 QB, 2 RB's, 2 WR's, 1 TE, K, DEF.

 

It would be so tough to pass on Moss or TO (especially if he sorts his sh!t out with Philly) but a good solid RB is most likely the way i'll go. At least that way I won't be "sweating" on a position, just a little lukewarm over having a Djax or a Wayne instead of Moss and his (likely) 15 td's

 

Tricky...thanks again guys

[BS Miscreant]

Let me preface this with, I am a draft for balance FFer. Anyway...

 

I'd go with the RBs at 1 & 2. At 2 you're looking at young guys like JJ and KJ, who without being comfortable with their respective offenses looked very good last year and could very possibly end in the top 10. You are also looking at established, proven veterans like Tiki, Rudi, Dillon, AGreen that are not only safe but likely to be very productive. Even if they only end up where you drafted them you still have the 8th or 9th ranked RB paired up with the 12th or 13th ranked RB. Not bad.

 

As for your 3rd, when you look at pick 3.10 you really ought to consider 4.03 as well because they're just five spots apart. If you trust the ADPs for MFL and Antsports, then you're likely looking at a rookie as the best available RB at pick 3.10. There are certainly some good looking rooks this year but I don't want one as my RB2 because I don't really know anything about them in terms of NFL production. I want one on my roster, just not that early*. At WR you're looking at possibly any of the following: AJohnson, Ward, Djax, Wayne, Burleson, Clayton and other similar guys. What I like about that possibility is that I'll likely get two of that bunch because I'll grab one at 4.03 as well. Now I have the 9 and 13 RBs and the 9 and 13 WRs. Not everyone likes this approach but I'm not only comfortable with it, I have been successful with it. Some would call this safe or even vanilla but like I said I draft for balance, especially at a spot like 10th.

 

* I am currently in a serious mock and due to a run at WR and the fact that my 4th pick was late in the fourth I passed on WR and took Caddy as my third RB because all the WRs I mentioned were gone. Sometimes you gotta go with value.

Edited July 14, 2005 by BS Miscreant

[Big Country]

Let me preface this with, I am a draft for balance FFer.  Anyway...

 

I'd go with the RBs at 1 & 2.  At 2 you're looking at young guys like JJ and KJ, who without being comfortable with their respective offenses looked very good last year and could very possibly end in the top 10.  You are also looking at established, proven veterans like Tiki, Rudi, Dillon, AGreen that are not only safe but likely to be very productive.  Even if they only end up where you drafted them you still have the 8th or 9th ranked RB paired up with the 12th or 13th ranked RB.  Not bad.

 

As for your 3rd, when you look at pick 3.10 you really ought to consider 4.03 as well because they're just five spots apart.  If you trust the ADPs for MFL and Antsports, then you're likely looking at a rookie as the best available RB at pick 3.10.  There are certainly some good looking rooks this year but I don't want one as my RB2 because I don't really know anything about them in terms of NFL production.  I want one on my roster, just not that early*.  At WR you're looking at possibly any of the following:  AJohnson, Ward, Djax, Wayne, Burleson, Clayton and other similar guys.  What I like about that possibility is that I'll likely get two of that bunch because I'll grab one at 4.03 as well.  Now I have the 9 and 13 RBs and the 9 and 13 WRs.  Not everyone likes this approach but I'm not only comfortable with it, I have been successful with it.  Some would call this safe or even vanilla but like I said I draft for balance, especially at a spot like 10th.

 

* I am currently in a serious mock and due to a run at WR and the fact that my 4th pick was late in the fourth I passed on WR and took Caddy as my third RB because all the WRs I mentioned were gone.  Sometimes you gotta go with value.

 

879466[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Very good points and I tend to agree with them. In the mock 5 that just finished, (we had one pt. per reception), I took Moss with the 8th pick, and i am not thrilled with my RBs. Over the last 3 years, the top ranked WR (and I have Moss #1 this year) has come out to be the 5th most valuable player overall with one pt. per reception, so I felt he was a good value, but, I will be playing shufle the RB2 all year if it was a real team.

[Gopher]

With 6 pts for all TDs, I think you obviously would have to take Manning if he slipped that far, but I would highly doubt it. So, I would go RB-RB unless you can get Moss with your second pick. A Lewis-Moss or Davis-Moss combo would not be bad. On the other hand, I personally think Wayne is going to be a star, so two top 15 RBs and Wayne would not be bad either.

[chires]

Grab a stud RB and Moss or Owens in the second. If they are gone go RB RB.

 

If Manning slides jump all over him . There are alot of decent RB's that still may be there on the way back in the third