Portis / McCallister

[Big Country]

In my local keeper, one owner has LT and McCallister as his backs (both of week 10) and I have DDavis and Portis (both off week 3).

 

Looking at most rankings, Portis and LT are very closely rated... should I make an offer of Portis for McCallister for the sake of trading out of the bye week problem?

 

Should I try get a little something more with Portis like say a bump in the first round of our draft (I have pick 9, he has 6 and 7).

 

I know the huddle has them 1 spot apart, but the projections have Portis with 2 mroe TDs.

 

Our league scoring is heavile based on distance of TD, so the longer TD runs get a lot of points (20 points for a 40+ TD run, 15 for 20-39 yards, 10 for 5-19 yards and 5 for under 5 yards). Yardage is 1 per 10 only bove 50 yards, so it is 5 points for 100 yards rushing. As you can see, this heavily values players that can score long TDs. Portis has outscored McCallister each of the past 3 years (113-95 last year, 239-171 in 2003 and 219-177 in 2002)

 

I was thinking hat maybe asking to move up from the 9th to the 6th pick would be worth it. With that pick, I shouldbe able to get one of Braylon Edwards, Troy Williamson or Mike Williams, depending on who I rate the highest at the time of the draft.

 

This owner is generally difficult to trade with, but Ithink the deal makes sense, just not sure how much the change from Portis to McCallister is worth considering there is a chance to get one of those 3 WRs anyway at the 9 spot.

 

THoughts?

[MrGameTime]

Yeah i think thats a far Trade and pretty even! But i would swing for the fence before I just did a one for one!

[Dirty Weasel]

Can't hurt to ask for a bump. Say it like ya mean it to him. But if he is firm, I think you still take the deal.

[Haskel]

Hard to say...I'm always a little leary of one-for-one trades. If he throws in the bump up in draft picks, I'd probably do simply because I think Deuce is going to have a strong year. If he doesn't, I may just suck it up and hope for the best Week 3 (I'd rather take the L Week 3 than Week 10). Out of curiosity..who are your backup RBs?

[Big Country]

Hard to say...I'm always a little leary of one-for-one trades.  If he throws in the bump up in draft picks, I'd probably do simply because I think Deuce is going to have a strong year.   If he doesn't, I may just suck it up and hope for the best Week 3 (I'd rather take the L Week 3 than Week 10).  Out of curiosity..who are your backup RBs?

 

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I have Shaun Alexander as well.. and we can start 3 RBs, so those 3 get started all year.. then it will be one of the rookies.. I made a move to acquire the #2 overall pick in our draft (10 team, all keep 12, so basically first round is a rookie draft, then some veterans make it in)

 

SO, I am not desperate to deal, just trying to see if Iwould be better served by spreading out the bye weeks in case the rookie I pick isn't starting week3 (The #1 guy has already said he is taking Cadillac, so I am leaning Benson right now). We must start 2 RBs minimum, so, should I not make a move, I do take the chance that I am starting Alexander and a rookie that isn't neccesarily getting all the carries in week 3... that's really the only reason I'd want to make the deal.

 

Edit to add: Haskel, just wanted to say your post to the guy with the #1 and 2 picks was very well thought out and presented. Hopefully you keep up with this sort of advice all season... can always use more people providing well thought out advice.

Edited July 27, 2005 by Big Country

[Adrenaline]

I would take the trade however you can get it.

[DMD]

It does solve a problem for you. Normally I hate changing things up just for a bye week but this one is pretty even and the bye you need to cover is in week 4 - not much time to compensate for it.

[Haskel]

I appreciate the compliment....I'll do my best.

 

Concerning the bye week trade...with the added info about your roster,I wouldn't do it. If you're guaranteed one of the rookie RBs (and rest easy...not a single one of them has a Week 3 bye) then your biggest worry is starting only 2 RBs week 3....and considering the RBs are Alexander and a probable Stud Rookie...you're in great shape. And I agree...I think Benson is going to be a monster.

 

good luck.

[Dirty Weasel]

I think it boils down to who you like better - Deuce or Clinton. Did the other guy keep 3 starting RB's? I assume no one dropped a starting RB into the draft? If so, since the other owner has picks 6 and 7, he's the one hurting to field 2 RB's for his bye week, not you, because he really doesn't have a chance to pick up a 4th starting RB (I am also assuming Caddy, Ronnie, JJ, and Cedric will go as the first 4 picks in your draft). If you want the trade, approach him with this info and demand a swap with your 9th for his 6th. If all the above is true, you have him by the nads.

[Alamak]

Deuce 2004:

269att /1074 yds/ 4.0 avg / 71 LG/9TD's 34rec/228 rec yds

 

 

Portis 2004:

 

343att /1315 yds/ 3.8 avg / 64 LG/ 5TD's 40rec/235 rec yds

 

 

Both Deuce & Portis had only one 40+ yd run in 2004!

 

Both Duece & Portis had 3 (20-39) yd runs in 2004!

 

Considering Duece missed a game & 1/2 last year with a sprained ankle their numbers are very similar.

 

The Redskins are a more run oriented team under Gibbs but with a weaker OL & a pass attack so poor it allows for defenses to stack the line against Portis. To me this is why he only got 3.8 yds a carry & had very few big runs. In fact his sole +40 run came in week one before defenses figured out how bad the pass attack really was.

 

On the plus side it was his first year with Gibbs & they installed a new offense for this year that is said to be more spread out & better suiting for Portis. He's also 3 years younger than Duece & last year was actually his worst statically so I could easily see improvement from him.

 

The Saints offense looks like the Colts attack compared to the Redskins & this year they claim to be more dedicated to the run. Duece claims his ankle bothered him for a good part of last season but is now healthy & ready to have a big year. In 2003 he had 11 games with at least one run of 20+ yds!

 

On the downside, looking through the numbers, he can be very hit or miss from week to week. One game he nails down 150 yds, 30 the next! Which follows the Saints who look great at times & terrible at other times.

 

All in all I think you should stick with Duece. I'm not convinced that the Redskins will be all that much better offensively this year & I think Denver had a big part in the numbers Portis put up early. On the other hand Duece, while older, is still young & has a lot of upside if NO can become more consistent. Plus the Saints should be working with the lead more often than the Skins & grinding the ball out late.

 

Now I'm a Bears fan so I'll be happy to throw my two cents in about Benson as well. The Bears love this kid for his durability & skills & plan to use him as a real workhorse in the future. However he is a holdout right now & Lovie Smith has said that Thomas Jones will be the starter going into this season. Benson should sign any day now & will no doubt be the starter before the season ends but I wouldn't count on him getting the bulk of the carries by week 3.

 

Plus even when he does start Jones will still see time especially in passing downs. When Benson starts will depend on how quickly he picks up the offense & how well he blocks ect. I predict he'll be of little use going into the season but will become a decent #3 during the second half of this year. Next year they'll cut ties with Jones who has a fairly big contract & Benson will be a big time player. I'm going to go after Benson as well in my draft, so not trying to discourage you from picking him up as well. As much as I'd love to see the Bears offense bust out I don't see the last ranked offense becoming a TD scoring machine in one year despite the new personnel & coordinator. With two backs splitting carries there will only be so many fantasy points to go around. In fact my plan is to grab the forgotten Jones if I can get him cheap in the draft & handcuff him to Benson.

[lynch]

I have never been a huge Portis fan, I hate the Saints Offense though. So I feel like it is picking the lesser of two evils. Since Portis is the higher ranked of the two backs and he has outscored Deuce the last few years. I would aim really high and ask him for the player swap and trade both of his picks for your one pick in the 1st, since you are losing the best player in the deal. That way when he counters back to you for one of those picks and you agree you look generous, while getting what you want.

 

As for the rookie RB, you need one in week three, Ronnie Brown will be the starter at that time with no doubt. Ricky is the only real threat to Brown at any time next season, just look at last season, and we all know that he can't play before week 6.

 

I work at Ok. State Univ. and I have watched Texas pretty closely and I was never sold on him. I also worry about Thomas Jones grabbing some of his touches, especially the third down plays even if Benson is the starter.

 

I just think that if you need him for one week that Brown would be the way to go, because who is going to take his carries? Sammy Morris or Lamar Gordon?

 

Just my two cents, that and a dollar 25 will get you a coke.

[Steelhead]

I like the trade because I never thought Portis would put up numbers like he did in Denver, granted it's only been one year but I doubt he'll do much better. I'd take that trade and if you can get a little more then that's great. Deuce is supposed to be even a bigger part of the offense this year (yeah they say that every year) and he should put up some pretty good numbers.